Flash of optimism from Pfizer and oil expectations from OPEC+

Markets were greeted Monday in high spirits over Biden's victory in the US Presidential election. But the real excitement began when Pfizer said its experimental vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing COVID-19. Markets took this almost as a victory in the fight against the pandemic.

Accordingly, the safe-haven assets were sold out, while risky assets, on the contrary, were actively bought. The wave of optimism was not stopped by the information that the results were published on a very small sample, if not negligible (a total of 94 cases), nor the fact that the vaccine must be stored at -80 ° C, which can create serious logistical problems.

Unfortunately, no one bothered to ask the main question, what does this news change here and now? And the answer is obvious - nothing. Here and now and in the horizon of the coming months, this will in no way solve the problem with the pandemic. But the problem is here and now. It's been a week since the lockdowns were announced in Europe, so what? The number of new cases in France, which has one of the most severe lockdowns, did not decrease, but increased significantly. This means, at best, that the lockdown will be extended. As a result, Goldman Sachs revised Europe's forecast for the fourth quarter from 9.1% growth (!) to a decline of 8.7% (!!!).

The United States is literally one step away from a new lockdown. It's very strange that no one thinks about all this. Especially if you remember other recent news. For example, the European Union has raised tariffs on American goods by up to $ 4 billion. Or the updated forecasts from Goldman Sachs, which lowered their forecast for growth in the United States for the first quarter of 2021 by 2 times (!) from 7% to 3.5%.

In this regard, we continue selling risky assets, including the US stock market, as well as buying safe haven assets, including the US dollar.

The oil market was also optimistic yesterday. The general positive sentiment was superimposed by the information that OPEC + is seriously considering the option to postpone the increase in production, as the renewed pandemic strikes a new blow on demand in the oil market.