The market broke out of its three-week consolidation above the July high following dovish comments from Powell and the possibility of three rate cuts next year. The ES and NQ are now only 5% off all-time highs and have recovered almost all their losses from 2022. The rally has broadened as small and mid-caps played catch-up into the end of the year, posting strong weekly gains. All-time highs are now a possibility heading into the end of the year.
SUMMARY
SUMMARY
- ES finished the 7th week with a gains up 2.35 % after trading in a range of 133 pts.
- ES successfully broke the July high & starts the week just below 1.13 Fib X resistance.
- ES up 14% since Oct low and within 5% of ATH
- SPX 2% from ATH
- First resistance is the 1.13 Fib X (4813)
- First support is the July 27th high.(4734)
- Above 1.13 Fib X resistance the upside targets are the Mar 29th high, 1.272 X and the ATH
- Below July 27th high support the downside targets are the 9 ema, Sept 1st high and 55 ema.
- Broad market strength continued with XLRE, XLI, XLB, XLY & XLF all making 3% plus gains last week.
- Econ data this week includes PCE, Durable goods, Consumer conf & GDP.
- Small & Mid cap showing relative strength
- Bullish setup into year end but pull back likely as price is overbought
- RSI 78 | VIX at 12.27 | 10 year 3.91%
