oliverrathbun

ES - Upside Breakout Underway?

CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Observational at this point... "Prepare for the Unexpected" fits this thesis.

Are we breaking out to the upside? Time and price are ripe for a move out of this 5 month long pattern I am labeling the "a & b" of a higher order "B" leg with the "c" leg up to follow.

Notice the price pattern in the two white boxes...see how they touched the channel line, backed off, broke through, tested them on the retrace then sharply moved up. The fractals in both of these instances are typical of initiating bullish waves. They are more often than not very erratic, chaos laden time periods. Direction does not become clear until there is a clear breakaway from the price structure. Are we currently experiencing one of those events?
My expectation for months (See link below dated 2/4/23) has been that we would need to exceed the Aug '22 highs to complete the longer term corrective pattern and ameliorate the oversold condition in the overall market and specifically the NAS100 stocks. Basically luring retail participation back into the market before the next serious leg down.

Weekly ES chart dressed in Spring colors for longer term picture of what this COULD look like...



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