Here are some of the notes I had put down since 2020. I am wondering how long the EUR/USD can hold above the 1.05 lvl . The Federal Reserve is on a path to keep hiking, in hopes of combating inflation and winning on that front. The ECB is stuck between a rock and a hard place as inflation is still extremely high and the economy is barely above water. I think price is going to at least hit 1.05. I am a little skeptical about price hitting the parity level again, at least in the first two quarters, but in the future I think the EUR/USD will like break below the parity level again.
Jan 10, 2020
-Focus EUR, GBP, NZD, CHF, ECAD, ZAR, maybe CAD
-EUR Likely to push higher during first month or two because price will likely move with GBP, USD experiencing with Manufacturing, US/China Phase One Deal take a few months to show signs of improvement
-I will focus on when the EUR drops
-thinking price will push to 1.13, then turn around, especially if there is a war with Iran/Iran conducting terrorist activities
-if price pushes to the 1.14, my focus with this pair will dissipate and I won't be trading this pair
-If price pushes above 1.15, holds for a few days, and doesn't push back below 1.1450 and stay there, then the trend is broken on the down side, price will likely push higher, to around 1.18/1.20 by end of year, if this happened before or during June
May 21, 2020
-thinking EUR will push lower
-monthly chart pattern showing price may push higher pretty significantly, but fundamentals/market sentiment posting says otherwise
-doubt that the ECB will want EUR to appreciate
-to push higher, virus would need to subside greatly or a great deal of confidence in a cure/vaccine
-EU countries would need to recover
Jan 10, 2021
-PT EUR 1.40, CAD 1.20/1.15, GBP 1.50, JPY (want to stay in for as long as I can, price likely to drop to 102), AUD 0.80/then to 0.70, NZD 0.75 then to 0.60, CHF 0.80, ECAD 1.45, ZAR 9.20
-Some prices likely to take more then a year to him my targets. Prices that might hit this year are CAD, AUD, NZD. CHF may hit 0.80 this year, JPY 102 may be broken
-No current strong plan
Mar 14. 2021
-target 1.40
-monthly chart showing double bottom almost complete, within a monthly inverse H/S
-Will price pull below 1.16, I don't see it as stimulus might be the new norm this year
-If inflation starts raising considerably/US economy recovers quick, then price will likely push lower, past 1.16 to 1.15
-I think though price will push higher this year, maybe hitting 1.30
Jun 06, 2021
-US economy is open up slowly
-ECB is still holding onto the PEPP and has not distributed yet
-ECB still looking to be dovish
-Price likely to range and whipsaw
-FED and ECB not diverging like in 2014
Jun 28, 2021
-price is trading near 1.19 and may break lower because of divergence between FED/ECB
-price target 1.15
Oct 13, 2021
-I think price is going to push lower because of the FED and ECB divergence
-price having trouble pushing above the 1.20 lvl
-the 1.05 or at least the 1.08 might be hit faster than I think
-shorts are becoming stronger and stronger
-price might drop to 1.08 by Feb 2022
-I doubt 1.20 will be hit because if price breaks below the 1.15 and hits 1.13, the 1.15 will be hard to break
-if price is able to stay below 1.15 before Nov, price will likely hit 1.10
Dec 31, 2021
-Said I would only focus on: CAD, JPY (PT 120), ECAD (below 1.40), ZAR, GCHF
-No current strong plan
Feb 12, 2022
-I am going to stay out of no matter how price is moving
-Reason, ECB hinting at being hawkish
-only use as a hedge
May 07, 2022
-price having trouble pushing lower
-I think price may hit parity as sentiment surrounding USD extremely strong, ECB having hard time balancing Russia/Ukraine conflict with its economy and inflation
-hints of ECB raising rates in 3rd/4th QTR this is what is going to start price recovering
-price may be able to hit 1.10/1.15 if the ECB becomes very hawkish
-staying out of the pair for the year
Jun 10, 2022
-EUR is a risk currency and could push lower if recession worries increase
-majority of central banks raising rates quickly, slow down inevitable
-not concerned with this pair and going to stay out for now
Aug 07, 2022
-stuck between raising rates and fighting off a recession
-in short term I think price will push higher, but won't last for long
-if interest rates increase, borrowing costs will increase, ECB has tool to fight this, but will still cause inflation
Oct 16, 2022
-I think EUR is going to push lower, but in the short term higher
-price on monthly chart is bouncing/testing support of monthly descending wedge, coupled with ECB likely to raise rates, might push the EUR higher
-other hand, price could break lower as EZ heads into winter, Russia cutting Oil taps, causing supply crunches
Nov 20, 2022
-I think the EUR and GCAD are going to push lower
Dec 07, 2022
-working on getting into building my portfolio
-looking at building in the EUR, GCHF, GCAD
-EUR might push near the 1.10
-EUR going to experience some pain similar to UK,
-manufacturing/industrials showing some growth
-build into GCAD first then EUR, then Silver
Dec 11, 2022
-descending wedge holding
-if continues to push higher, might be able to hit 1.10, possibly around 1.12/1.14 (testing resistance of descending wedge)
-price also forming an inverse H/S, if correct, price may B/O and push to the 1.22 before breaking lower
-EZ close to being in a recession or in a recession already
-double digit inflation, could cause ECB to raise rates quickly
-ECB looking to possibly stop or reduce asset purchases which could push price higher
-wages also increasing along with housing prices
-Manufacturing/Industrial growth low
-I think EUR will push up initially because ECB will have to raise rates quickly, and FED and ECB might eventually diverge
Jan 10, 2020
-Focus EUR, GBP, NZD, CHF, ECAD, ZAR, maybe CAD
-EUR Likely to push higher during first month or two because price will likely move with GBP, USD experiencing with Manufacturing, US/China Phase One Deal take a few months to show signs of improvement
-I will focus on when the EUR drops
-thinking price will push to 1.13, then turn around, especially if there is a war with Iran/Iran conducting terrorist activities
-if price pushes to the 1.14, my focus with this pair will dissipate and I won't be trading this pair
-If price pushes above 1.15, holds for a few days, and doesn't push back below 1.1450 and stay there, then the trend is broken on the down side, price will likely push higher, to around 1.18/1.20 by end of year, if this happened before or during June
May 21, 2020
-thinking EUR will push lower
-monthly chart pattern showing price may push higher pretty significantly, but fundamentals/market sentiment posting says otherwise
-doubt that the ECB will want EUR to appreciate
-to push higher, virus would need to subside greatly or a great deal of confidence in a cure/vaccine
-EU countries would need to recover
Jan 10, 2021
-PT EUR 1.40, CAD 1.20/1.15, GBP 1.50, JPY (want to stay in for as long as I can, price likely to drop to 102), AUD 0.80/then to 0.70, NZD 0.75 then to 0.60, CHF 0.80, ECAD 1.45, ZAR 9.20
-Some prices likely to take more then a year to him my targets. Prices that might hit this year are CAD, AUD, NZD. CHF may hit 0.80 this year, JPY 102 may be broken
-No current strong plan
Mar 14. 2021
-target 1.40
-monthly chart showing double bottom almost complete, within a monthly inverse H/S
-Will price pull below 1.16, I don't see it as stimulus might be the new norm this year
-If inflation starts raising considerably/US economy recovers quick, then price will likely push lower, past 1.16 to 1.15
-I think though price will push higher this year, maybe hitting 1.30
Jun 06, 2021
-US economy is open up slowly
-ECB is still holding onto the PEPP and has not distributed yet
-ECB still looking to be dovish
-Price likely to range and whipsaw
-FED and ECB not diverging like in 2014
Jun 28, 2021
-price is trading near 1.19 and may break lower because of divergence between FED/ECB
-price target 1.15
Oct 13, 2021
-I think price is going to push lower because of the FED and ECB divergence
-price having trouble pushing above the 1.20 lvl
-the 1.05 or at least the 1.08 might be hit faster than I think
-shorts are becoming stronger and stronger
-price might drop to 1.08 by Feb 2022
-I doubt 1.20 will be hit because if price breaks below the 1.15 and hits 1.13, the 1.15 will be hard to break
-if price is able to stay below 1.15 before Nov, price will likely hit 1.10
Dec 31, 2021
-Said I would only focus on: CAD, JPY (PT 120), ECAD (below 1.40), ZAR, GCHF
-No current strong plan
Feb 12, 2022
-I am going to stay out of no matter how price is moving
-Reason, ECB hinting at being hawkish
-only use as a hedge
May 07, 2022
-price having trouble pushing lower
-I think price may hit parity as sentiment surrounding USD extremely strong, ECB having hard time balancing Russia/Ukraine conflict with its economy and inflation
-hints of ECB raising rates in 3rd/4th QTR this is what is going to start price recovering
-price may be able to hit 1.10/1.15 if the ECB becomes very hawkish
-staying out of the pair for the year
Jun 10, 2022
-EUR is a risk currency and could push lower if recession worries increase
-majority of central banks raising rates quickly, slow down inevitable
-not concerned with this pair and going to stay out for now
Aug 07, 2022
-stuck between raising rates and fighting off a recession
-in short term I think price will push higher, but won't last for long
-if interest rates increase, borrowing costs will increase, ECB has tool to fight this, but will still cause inflation
Oct 16, 2022
-I think EUR is going to push lower, but in the short term higher
-price on monthly chart is bouncing/testing support of monthly descending wedge, coupled with ECB likely to raise rates, might push the EUR higher
-other hand, price could break lower as EZ heads into winter, Russia cutting Oil taps, causing supply crunches
Nov 20, 2022
-I think the EUR and GCAD are going to push lower
Dec 07, 2022
-working on getting into building my portfolio
-looking at building in the EUR, GCHF, GCAD
-EUR might push near the 1.10
-EUR going to experience some pain similar to UK,
-manufacturing/industrials showing some growth
-build into GCAD first then EUR, then Silver
Dec 11, 2022
-descending wedge holding
-if continues to push higher, might be able to hit 1.10, possibly around 1.12/1.14 (testing resistance of descending wedge)
-price also forming an inverse H/S, if correct, price may B/O and push to the 1.22 before breaking lower
-EZ close to being in a recession or in a recession already
-double digit inflation, could cause ECB to raise rates quickly
-ECB looking to possibly stop or reduce asset purchases which could push price higher
-wages also increasing along with housing prices
-Manufacturing/Industrial growth low
-I think EUR will push up initially because ECB will have to raise rates quickly, and FED and ECB might eventually diverge