The CPI print for USD and EURO turned out to be a non event since both prints were fairly benign. A downtick in USD CPI and a slight increase in EURO core CPI despite the decrease in the headline print which includes food and energy.
The consecutive daily open/close range of 1.0842-1.1904 confirms the indecision.
EUR/USD has been treading water below the 50% fib at 1.0942 for four months now. It appears posed to break higher but beware of the 1.0955 monthly close which corresponds with MA 100 on the weekly chart.
A break and above this level will take us to the next level to watch out for. The monthly 8/2019, daily 3/30/23 and 8h close at 1.0990.
EUR/USD is still in a fairly orderly ascending channel despite the break of the uptrend line which will be invalidated with a close below 1.0788, yesterday's low and also the monthly May 2022 high.
Conclusion? I don't know what to expect. It may be a bull trap and a reversal after NFP or a sustained breakout since the ECB is still making noise about further rate increases.
The consecutive daily open/close range of 1.0842-1.1904 confirms the indecision.
EUR/USD has been treading water below the 50% fib at 1.0942 for four months now. It appears posed to break higher but beware of the 1.0955 monthly close which corresponds with MA 100 on the weekly chart.
A break and above this level will take us to the next level to watch out for. The monthly 8/2019, daily 3/30/23 and 8h close at 1.0990.
EUR/USD is still in a fairly orderly ascending channel despite the break of the uptrend line which will be invalidated with a close below 1.0788, yesterday's low and also the monthly May 2022 high.
Conclusion? I don't know what to expect. It may be a bull trap and a reversal after NFP or a sustained breakout since the ECB is still making noise about further rate increases.
Trade active:
The 8h uptrend line is still intact. A hanging man candle on the daily chart. I would have more confidence in the long side once it closes above the weekly MA100 at 1.0956. The one aspect of NFP that is worrisome is the decrease in the unemployment rate. And the headline number was not bad. Maybe still enough reason for the FOMC to consider hiking again.
