Good evening Traders,
Now, after all the FOMC jazz, let’s have a look at the sterling-dollar.
GBPUSD is in an intact uptrend from the 2017 lows making higher highs and higher lows. Which is an indication of a bullish trend. However, don’t get fooled. In the weekly chart, the GBPUSD is bearish and every up move you can see in the daily is just a correction.
Now, I identified for you 2 very important things.
Let's start with the first observation.
1.) First of all the GBPUSD was testing the resistance now acting as new support at around 1.35941. VERY IMPORTANT!! We had a daily close below it which makes it now a little bit complicated because the down move can be a part of a bigger correction lower where the recent move lower was just the first leg followed by a correction higher and another similar leg lower. Obviously, that is a little bit far away to forecast but yes it is a possibility.
2.) The second very important observation is the 200 day moving average. The last time the GBPUSD tested the 200 moving day average was at 2017-06-21. You can see that on that date the GBPUSD retested in a pullback the 200 day moving average bevor a massive rally occurred which took us about 91 days. First of all, I need to mention to you that I am not expecting a similar rally like we had a year ago. However, I am expecting a pullback to the upside in the GBPUSD but it can also be a part of a new rally, which can take us time wise about 91 days if the history repeats itself. I will watch the weekly close this week to evaluate the situation.
With NFPs coming on Friday, it could be a catalyst for the dollar to get weak again. Let’s see.
I hope you enjoyed this view.
Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view presented is not any trading recommendation, just personal view.
Now, after all the FOMC jazz, let’s have a look at the sterling-dollar.
GBPUSD is in an intact uptrend from the 2017 lows making higher highs and higher lows. Which is an indication of a bullish trend. However, don’t get fooled. In the weekly chart, the GBPUSD is bearish and every up move you can see in the daily is just a correction.
Now, I identified for you 2 very important things.
Let's start with the first observation.
1.) First of all the GBPUSD was testing the resistance now acting as new support at around 1.35941. VERY IMPORTANT!! We had a daily close below it which makes it now a little bit complicated because the down move can be a part of a bigger correction lower where the recent move lower was just the first leg followed by a correction higher and another similar leg lower. Obviously, that is a little bit far away to forecast but yes it is a possibility.
2.) The second very important observation is the 200 day moving average. The last time the GBPUSD tested the 200 moving day average was at 2017-06-21. You can see that on that date the GBPUSD retested in a pullback the 200 day moving average bevor a massive rally occurred which took us about 91 days. First of all, I need to mention to you that I am not expecting a similar rally like we had a year ago. However, I am expecting a pullback to the upside in the GBPUSD but it can also be a part of a new rally, which can take us time wise about 91 days if the history repeats itself. I will watch the weekly close this week to evaluate the situation.
With NFPs coming on Friday, it could be a catalyst for the dollar to get weak again. Let’s see.
I hope you enjoyed this view.
Disclaimer: Trading is about going with the highest probability, nobody is 100% right and we need to protect ourself in case we are wrong. That is why we need to always use a stop-loss when trading. Trade with care. This my current view, and any view presented is not any trading recommendation, just personal view.
