Gold in a Rectangle / Both sides trend equally possible

Gold's general overview: Gold is on an interesting Technical area on the Hourly 4 chart. The dominant pattern on a Daily chart however is an Channel Down since the February #16 High. Since September #21, the Hourly 4 RSI was ascending being on Higher High's, which was on a Bullish divergence with the actual Xau-Usd Price-action which is headed to Lower High’s and Lower Low’s. I have seen the exact same sequence on August #20 - #26. The RSI was then ascending too, while the Price-action made three Lower Lows on the bottom trendline of the Channel Down. That suggests that Gold may be pricing a Top here or few points above (temporary or not), and since rejected on the September #1 RSI Resistance, naturally Gold should level the Overbought Williams% and the Selling sequence can’t be revealed as an surprise. DX is pulling back while equities are rising, so I believe that soon Gold will make a Lower Low run towards the Hourly 4 Support of #1,722.80, unless #1,744.80 breaks first, in which case Gold turns from Bearish to Bullish regarding the Short-term. Another fact to support the downtrend, Gold is rejected on Top of the Channel Down and Hourly 4 chart is at it’s highest Technically it has been since January - February fractal / Overbought on all majors RSI. Keep an eye on the Bond noted and DX in order to accurately track the markets on Short-term as the Medium-term has now the Daily chart #1,744.80 as Resistance and #1,722.80 as Support (which is considerably lower). However, the Daily chart RSI is on the lower levels but in fact far away in points form the March bottom of #30.00. Typically when the RSI hits these levels it finds Sellers and that has been so consistent since the August #2018 market bottom. The downside potential is #1,678.80 - #1,688.80, while on Medium and Long-term, #1,600.80 is surely on the cards.


Technical analysis: Very slow Rectangle Trading on the Hourly 4 chart (every break of a Rectangle I cannot treat as an breakout because of strong Volatility Gold is Trading under). This is a typical sign that the market is consolidating, waiting for a catalyst to reveal an direction. Same with the DX (Intra-day). I assume that following the Monthly fractal, the market is waiting for the Fed report to see how Wall Street will digest current developments and the Fed aftermath. Fundamentally, the risk-off sentiment that DX had these past few weeks should fade away after this result as Investors will remove capital from safe-haven assets such as Gold and can go back to Bond notes yield with confidence. Meaning that if DX gains value, Bond notes should benefit along with the Stock markets, which can engage the Selling sequence on Gold. Any pullback to the #1,722.80 and possible Price-action rejection is a Buy opportunity, above #1,744.80, I expect last week's late Buyers to yield and push the Price-action towards #1,764.80. It is highly important to note that Gold always repeats it’s cycles and allow me share the current configuration which is evident on the charts: On November #11 - #12, Gold dipped on E.U. session towards the #1,856.80 and as market closing approached, Bought back the dip and finished session near #1,884.80. On November #16 (cycle fractal), market sentiment delivered almost the same movement, decline towards #1,864.70, and tomorrow’s session market closing near Weekly High priced at #1,895.80 (again similar scenario). Throughout the session ahead, E.U. opening was flat but as Wall Street approached, Price-action dipped on an aggressive spike towards #1,864.80, and Bought back just within few hours towards #1,877.80, so - according to Daily cycles, every dip to the Support was Bought back, and if Gold experiences aggressive push towards the Support and Price-action rejects it, I don’t see why Gold won’t repeat this kind of sentiment and follow the statistic rules. So on the Fed aftermath, or Support will be invalidated with more than #27 point difference, or Gold could rebound from the Support and engage the Buying sequence towards #1,764.80. Critical session for Gold’s Short-term today indeed.


My position: I am without a position, waiting for a firm breakout of already mentioned levels above, as my model leans more to the Bearish side. If #1,722.80 breaks, Price-action could spike towards #1,700.80, while #1,744.80 break can put #1,764.80 Lower High zone to a test.