Riding the Buying wave from #1,782.80 / eyeing #1,805.80
As discussed on my Friday's commentary (April #16):" Gold is pricing a Technical Top here (currently for the session, or not / I will have more with next week's candle) and if Gold don't pierce #1,768.80 Support on Monday (what was Resistance, becomes the Support and vice-versa) and Bond Yields not make an Bullish comeback, path is cleared for Technical #1,796.80 test which I will be ready to pursue with my set of Buying orders, if variance allows."
Gold's general commentary: Gold (Xau-Usd on my commentary as always) is still consolidating just below the #1,792.80 #2-Month High (Lower High trendline) above the Hourly 4 chart Resistance zone. #1,792.80 is an ultimate Top at the moment since, acting as an strong Resistance - rejected the Price-action on multiple occasions and offered market closing below it throughout last week’s session, not comforting Buyers early on. Monitoring the Price-action almost all E.U. session, Bond Yields are without a recovery (# -1.01%) and DX is on a spiral downtrend (# -0.44%) and impulse on Gold that I am witnessing is an product of it. Gold is surely Bullish on Short-term as #1,805.80 Higher High extension is on the cards, but on the other hand - I cannot rule out the strong correction (identical as on June #29) with #1,800.80 as an possible turning point, as it all depends on Bond Yields developments. DX is still below the Support instead of rising on hopes of this better macroeconomic outlook, in my opinion U.S. government is presenting better picture than as it is, which will bleed Gold once Bond Yields auction happens where Yields are expected to skyrocket on more than #5.50% configuration. In essence the one works as counter to the other (Gold / DX), hence Gold stays ranged still near the Top of the Bollinger Bands on Hourly 4 chart. This confirms my impression that Gold is more tied to the movements on Bond Yields at the moment, so I will Trade accordingly and take it into consideration. The slightest Bullish reversal on Bond Yields should practice Selling pressure on Gold. If #1,792.80 breaks, I will wait until it touches the Hourly 4 final Higher High Resistance (I calculate this to be around #1,805.80, if #1,792.80 breaks). However, if #1,766.80 breaks, Bullish Short-term bias would be postponed. Bond Yields dynamics on the main stage today, as they fell to #2-Month Low.
Technical analysis: The ability to get above the Lower High extension on the Daily chart along with the sharp fall on equities, are putting Gold (Xau-Usd numbers on my commentary) under Buying pressure again. At the same time DX has made a new Bottom below the #2 Week Low. Gold is on an interesting Technical fractal on the Hourly 4 chart. The dominant pattern is a healthy Channel Up since March #30 Bottom. However, interesting variance on December #28, the Hourly 4 RSI was ascending, being on Higher High’s, which was near pricing the Bearish divergence with the actual Spot Price-action which is on Lower High’s and Higher High’s. I have spotted the exact same sequence on July #8 - #16 fractal, where Gold was within Rectangle, engaged the aggressive decline, then started the recovery with more than #100 points. The RSI was then descending, while the Price-action made three Lower Low’s on the bottom trendline of the Channel Down, which Technically (if Gold repeat it’s cycle) could engage the decline and hit #1,800.80 configuration, then #100 points aggressive decline towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier. That suggests that Gold may be pricing a Top soon (temporary or not) and using as an rejection point.
My position: I am operating with my Buy order engaged on #1,782.80, calling for #1,805.80 extension. #1,792.80 is next Resistance so Short-term Traders should take it into consideration. My Stop-loss is set a bit wider since my Yearly Profits are great and margin allowed it.
Gold's general commentary: Gold (Xau-Usd on my commentary as always) is still consolidating just below the #1,792.80 #2-Month High (Lower High trendline) above the Hourly 4 chart Resistance zone. #1,792.80 is an ultimate Top at the moment since, acting as an strong Resistance - rejected the Price-action on multiple occasions and offered market closing below it throughout last week’s session, not comforting Buyers early on. Monitoring the Price-action almost all E.U. session, Bond Yields are without a recovery (# -1.01%) and DX is on a spiral downtrend (# -0.44%) and impulse on Gold that I am witnessing is an product of it. Gold is surely Bullish on Short-term as #1,805.80 Higher High extension is on the cards, but on the other hand - I cannot rule out the strong correction (identical as on June #29) with #1,800.80 as an possible turning point, as it all depends on Bond Yields developments. DX is still below the Support instead of rising on hopes of this better macroeconomic outlook, in my opinion U.S. government is presenting better picture than as it is, which will bleed Gold once Bond Yields auction happens where Yields are expected to skyrocket on more than #5.50% configuration. In essence the one works as counter to the other (Gold / DX), hence Gold stays ranged still near the Top of the Bollinger Bands on Hourly 4 chart. This confirms my impression that Gold is more tied to the movements on Bond Yields at the moment, so I will Trade accordingly and take it into consideration. The slightest Bullish reversal on Bond Yields should practice Selling pressure on Gold. If #1,792.80 breaks, I will wait until it touches the Hourly 4 final Higher High Resistance (I calculate this to be around #1,805.80, if #1,792.80 breaks). However, if #1,766.80 breaks, Bullish Short-term bias would be postponed. Bond Yields dynamics on the main stage today, as they fell to #2-Month Low.
Technical analysis: The ability to get above the Lower High extension on the Daily chart along with the sharp fall on equities, are putting Gold (Xau-Usd numbers on my commentary) under Buying pressure again. At the same time DX has made a new Bottom below the #2 Week Low. Gold is on an interesting Technical fractal on the Hourly 4 chart. The dominant pattern is a healthy Channel Up since March #30 Bottom. However, interesting variance on December #28, the Hourly 4 RSI was ascending, being on Higher High’s, which was near pricing the Bearish divergence with the actual Spot Price-action which is on Lower High’s and Higher High’s. I have spotted the exact same sequence on July #8 - #16 fractal, where Gold was within Rectangle, engaged the aggressive decline, then started the recovery with more than #100 points. The RSI was then descending, while the Price-action made three Lower Low’s on the bottom trendline of the Channel Down, which Technically (if Gold repeat it’s cycle) could engage the decline and hit #1,800.80 configuration, then #100 points aggressive decline towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier. That suggests that Gold may be pricing a Top soon (temporary or not) and using as an rejection point.
My position: I am operating with my Buy order engaged on #1,782.80, calling for #1,805.80 extension. #1,792.80 is next Resistance so Short-term Traders should take it into consideration. My Stop-loss is set a bit wider since my Yearly Profits are great and margin allowed it.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
