1uptick

Gold Trend 15/03 - 19/03 (Review Daily)

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TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold ended with a surge last Friday. Early in the trading day, selling momentum from last Thursday has continued until Gold hit 1700 during the European session and the price has gradually formed a foundation between 1700-05 in the US session. The price then broke the S-T resistance line(1), ended the day @ 1726. Look back into last week, gold has developed a uptrend channel(2) and closely followed by a break of a downtrend, in S-T 1700-1740 should be the range bounded until further breaking. The buying from Friday's closing was relatively strong, the chance of breaking 1740 should be higher...


Gold has responded the selling upper shadow line(3) with a stronger lower shadow line(4) on the daily chart last Friday, the drop didn't last long where the reversal signal(3) on Thursday has been replaced by a bottom out signal(4). More importantly for the next 2 trading days is whether the price can close above the M-T resistance line(5). If the price can close above line(5), the M-T downtrend will be completed, following will be a range bound of 1700-1740 or an uptrend (if it passes the 1740 resistance)

S-T Resistances:
1740
1735
1730

Market Price: 1726

S-T Supports:
1720-22
1715
1705-00

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Comment:

Carrying the uplifting momentum from last Friday, gold price was up by 4 dollar yesterday, but trading within a tight 13 dollar range. No change on the S-T trend where the price is still bounding within 1700-40. A S-T resistance line(1) has newly been formed in the past 48 hours. If the key resistance @ 1740 is broken, the uptrend channel(2) will be the next movement target.


Gold price closed above the M-T resistance line(3) yesterday on the daily chart. But with the relatively weak volume yesterday, the market may need another 1-2 days before a bullish M-T trend is confirmed.

S-T Resistances:
1750
1740
1735

Market Price: 1731

S-T Supports:
1726
1720
1715

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Comment:

Range-bound continued for gold yesterday. Although the price hit 1741 in the US session yesterday, it retraced quickly. The day ended @ 1731, with merely a 15 dollars trading range. The price should maintain within the S-T uptrend channel(1) before the FOMC meeting. And before any break through, the price should stay in 1700-1740 for the hourly chart. If the price break 1740 upward, channel(2) should be the next movement.


No surprise on the daily chart so far, while the price is maintaining its course within 1700-40. However, the retracement(3) before market closing yesterday can be interpreted as a reversal signal within the 1700-40 range.

S-T Resistances:
1760
1750
1740-41

Market Price: 1736

S-T Supports:
1735
1728-30
1722

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Comment:

Gold finally crossed the 1740 barrier yesterday. The price was traded between 1726-37 thought-out the day until the US FOMC announcement, it then jumped to day high 1751, ended the trading day at 1744. In S-T, the price should remains in an upward trend after it broke 1740 resistance(1). The upper resistance of the uptrend channel(2) should be the next target.


On the daily chart, the price is now standing firmly above the M-T support line(3) after the pass 2 days of trading, resuming its path within the wedge pattern(4).

S-T Resistances:
1767
1759-60
1755

Market Price: 1753

S-T Supports:
1750
1740-42
1735

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Comment:

Gold closed @ 1735 after hitting a near 1-month high @ 1755 yesterday. It has carried the buying momentum from the US FOMC meeting in the early Asian session, broke the key support of 1740(1). However, the buying can't sustained while the US bond yield was jumping up strongly. The price crossed the 1740(2) support and the strong selling led the price to a weekly low below 1720 during the US session.

Today, the price is once again trading below the key resistance of 1740. Before the next major move, the price should range-bound within 1720-40(4) just like the past few days. The uptrend channel(3) is still valid, where the bottom support of the channel is now approaching 1740, expect a breakout within the day.


It seem like gold may need to take a little bit longer time for its price to jump above 1760, as the market was showing strong selling pressure near the pervious peak of 1759(5) yesterday; buying was also strong near 1720 level, where the M-T support line (6) is still valid. We can expect a range-bound within zone (7) in coming days, until the overall global market condition shifts.

S-T Resistances:
1750
1740
1735

Market Price: 1731

Market Supports:
1726
1720
1715

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