Gold near the Ultimate Top / Rising Wedge aims for #1,760.80

Gold's general commentary: No surprises on E.U. session opening as Price-action didn’t delivered any significant move (classic consolidation) and despite the spiral downtrend on Bond Yields and DX on modest recovery, Gold has managed to defend the Support throughout the session and enter the #1,780’s Hourly 4 Neutral zone. This is the Bullish extension of the Lower High sequence within the Daily chart Rectangle. The Hourly 4 chart is approaching Bullish RSI levels for the first time in #8 sessions, which indicates that #27 point decline could be ahead. In my opinion #1,805.80 is the Highest extension for the session and decent Buying opportunity awaits on that fractal (if breaks). However, as long as Gold is below #1,800.80 psychological barrier, there are more possibilities for a decline, as current week was tense to Trade on as Gold was only repeating the Yields cycle, fractal last seen on #2011 Year.


Technical analysis: Once again I witnessed the dynamics of Buying Low’s and Selling High’s (Investment banks classic Trading strategy), as the Buying momentum on Hourly 1 chart failed after the #1,797.80 Top. Main reasons for current variance are that Bond Yields are struggling to make a Bullish comeback / market speculators announced that they will keep the previous plan and as an result Gold soared with Daily chart’s Bullish Gap fill (as long as Bond Yields continue with the Hourly 4 decline, Gold is a Buy option), as Bond Yields (Inflation on # +2.3% and growing) Support break added significant Buying pressure on Gold. It is vital to understand that with the risks involved on a Weekly scale, only if #1,800.80 - #1,805.80 is crossed, I can say that the Bullish reversal is in continuation. My estimation shows that the base case scenario is even extending the Price-action to #1,700.80, but it is too early to mention such Low levels since #1,760.80 Daily Support is still preserved. I am expecting Gold to be near #1,678.80 Lower Low extension within May's fractal, maximum until May #20. Gold is on a tight balance at the moment, positively biased by the pullback on world equities, but still on positive cycle due to the continuous Low’s on Bond Yields, fueled by Fed’s unchanged rate (Margin Debt chart on ATH). Gold always respects it’s variances and Long-term cycles as for now, trend is now Neutral right on the current fractal (Short-term), but able to convert in a Rising Wedge, Technically. If the Higher High zone breaks however, I will be looking at the very real possibility of a new #1,817.80 test, and by my estimation, this is maximum of Bullish cycle if occurs. I am expecting Gold to cool down the Overbought levels and price a temporary or not Top here, and engage #1,744.80 Selling extension on the aftermath.


My position: As discussed, I will be interested in Buying only if #1,800.80 - #1,805.80 Resistance zone breaks (Targeting #1,817.80), while I will pursue #1,760.80 Medium-term Support if #1,782.80 breaks, and of course - keeping Bond Yields chart as my main marker at the moment, where trend can change almost on Hourly basis. If Bond Yields continue rising and my Support breaks, I won't hesitate to pursue lower Targets, ready to cut my position if Yields again test Lower Low extension again. All eyes on Bond Yields.