MARA - Deploy The Lifeboats 😱🙀❗❗
Before posting this I did check through the first page of most recent and most popular threads on MARA and it was very interesting to see that every one of them is "LONG" MARA.
So this is a contrarian thread.
And why is that?
Well aside from the skill it takes to make a correct bearish call mid bull market; MARA is a fanboy hype stock.
Most of the posts are based in "technicals" funded by hope .
Hope is not a trading strategy.
Its very interesting because the no.1 Bitcoin miner has looked ugly for quite a while and there have been multi-time frame bearish divergences.
These days TradingView is even kind enough to highlight some of those divergences, but yet apparently no publishers have noticed them.
Yet again they are all too busy looking at the stars ✨.
The blind leading the blind.
Bitcoin slumped today and altcoins took quite a hit.
But MARA was already rolling down the hill for some time and continued today.
So the question; if MARA is plunging while Bitcoin is still yet to reach a conclusive top...
Where will it be if/when Bitcoin does turn bearish ❔
Where will it be at the end of a Bitcoin correction ❓
Probably not all the way up here.
I called this as a weak 1:0.786 three wave correction when MARA was up @$21 back on March 24th.
And so we'll see what how Bitcoin fairs over the weekend.
But I have deep targets for MARA.
Not advice.
So this is a contrarian thread.
And why is that?
Well aside from the skill it takes to make a correct bearish call mid bull market; MARA is a fanboy hype stock.
Most of the posts are based in "technicals" funded by hope .
Hope is not a trading strategy.
Its very interesting because the no.1 Bitcoin miner has looked ugly for quite a while and there have been multi-time frame bearish divergences.
These days TradingView is even kind enough to highlight some of those divergences, but yet apparently no publishers have noticed them.
Yet again they are all too busy looking at the stars ✨.
The blind leading the blind.
Bitcoin slumped today and altcoins took quite a hit.
But MARA was already rolling down the hill for some time and continued today.
So the question; if MARA is plunging while Bitcoin is still yet to reach a conclusive top...
Where will it be if/when Bitcoin does turn bearish ❔
Where will it be at the end of a Bitcoin correction ❓
Probably not all the way up here.
I called this as a weak 1:0.786 three wave correction when MARA was up @$21 back on March 24th.
And so we'll see what how Bitcoin fairs over the weekend.
But I have deep targets for MARA.
Not advice.
Comment:
Hit the "Boost" button if you like my content and more TV'ers will see it - thanks 👍.
Comment:
Bitcoin is holding on for now but MARA is falling away and in now in terrible shape; down another 6% today.
And remember that this bearish price action is happening with Bitcoin not yet making a lower low.
Imagine what price action it may see whenever Bitcoin does have a significant correction.
It could get very ugly for hodlers...
It could be a total washout.
But I'll see what develops and go from there.
If Bitcoin moves on up then MARA will likely bounce also, but it will probably be a weak bounce to then carry on down.
If you're investing based on beliefs but you do not have real skill in the chart, then good chance you're going to lose your money or at the very least be in considerable pain for quite a while; especially if you're buying ultra high volatility stocks such as MARA.
The problem with trading on beliefs is that you have no system to sound the alarm and tell you that something is wrong and it leads to heavy losses.
My targets on the chart above are a long way off for now, but it does look like this trend may have long legs and at least get back to the previous low @ $8.
However I think more likely it will get back to the first fib band @ $4.5.
Or perhaps it could even get down to that ultra deep $1.27. Obviously thats a very long way down, but never say never with ultra wild names such as this...
We'll know more whenever Bitcoin does have a correction.
Whichever it is, it is not looking good for MARA here and longs are getting smashed.
Down the road, my process of finding the actual low in this lucrative stock will perhaps be private to begin with but I will at some point along the way share with TradingView as I did here.
And remember that this bearish price action is happening with Bitcoin not yet making a lower low.
Imagine what price action it may see whenever Bitcoin does have a significant correction.
It could get very ugly for hodlers...
It could be a total washout.
But I'll see what develops and go from there.
If Bitcoin moves on up then MARA will likely bounce also, but it will probably be a weak bounce to then carry on down.
If you're investing based on beliefs but you do not have real skill in the chart, then good chance you're going to lose your money or at the very least be in considerable pain for quite a while; especially if you're buying ultra high volatility stocks such as MARA.
The problem with trading on beliefs is that you have no system to sound the alarm and tell you that something is wrong and it leads to heavy losses.
My targets on the chart above are a long way off for now, but it does look like this trend may have long legs and at least get back to the previous low @ $8.
However I think more likely it will get back to the first fib band @ $4.5.
Or perhaps it could even get down to that ultra deep $1.27. Obviously thats a very long way down, but never say never with ultra wild names such as this...
We'll know more whenever Bitcoin does have a correction.
Whichever it is, it is not looking good for MARA here and longs are getting smashed.
Down the road, my process of finding the actual low in this lucrative stock will perhaps be private to begin with but I will at some point along the way share with TradingView as I did here.
Comment:
We're at a critical juncture now where Bitcoin is bouncing and as always we look to see where there is strength / weakness.
In terms of Wyckoff, MARA is now @ SOW "Sign of Weakness" support structure.
If it breaks down from here then that is when the more impulsive Mark Down phase of the cycle begins; according to Wyckoff.
If MARA looks weak as Bitcoin bounces then it is toast, and probably a reasonable short though I won't be taking it.
Let's see how this area goes🤨.
In terms of Wyckoff, MARA is now @ SOW "Sign of Weakness" support structure.
If it breaks down from here then that is when the more impulsive Mark Down phase of the cycle begins; according to Wyckoff.
If MARA looks weak as Bitcoin bounces then it is toast, and probably a reasonable short though I won't be taking it.
Let's see how this area goes🤨.
Comment:
A bounce at critical support; SOW counts for nothing other than the market holding out an olive branch for longs to make an exit with a morsel of dignity.
The immediate bounce will more likely be caused by shorts covering their position which drives a liability and forces more shorts to exit above.
This is called an automatic rally; where price increases as traders leave the market.
And the uptick in price fools longs into thinking that the wave has real impetus and they enter positions only to get very trapped when it rolls over.
How high can an automatic rally go in a volatile stock ?
Who knows really but I'll be looking for bearish ascending fractals and I may even open a small short simply because the stock markets look so bearish but it would need to parallel with Bitcoin.
I am now partially short overbought stocks currently btw; indexes PLTR APH, probably others next week, though there are some good stocks holding on in deep positions. Those that are hanging on will likely have a bull market whenever the correction is over.
Btw, if you are super confident of MARA's progress and think its the best thing since sliced bread, but you're not aware that the Nasdaq that MARA is within, just closed one of the largest weekly bearish momentum candles EVER, then stop trading.
If that's you then go away and re-think what you are doing because you are not observing critical detail and you're going to get rekt.
The immediate bounce will more likely be caused by shorts covering their position which drives a liability and forces more shorts to exit above.
This is called an automatic rally; where price increases as traders leave the market.
And the uptick in price fools longs into thinking that the wave has real impetus and they enter positions only to get very trapped when it rolls over.
How high can an automatic rally go in a volatile stock ?
Who knows really but I'll be looking for bearish ascending fractals and I may even open a small short simply because the stock markets look so bearish but it would need to parallel with Bitcoin.
I am now partially short overbought stocks currently btw; indexes PLTR APH, probably others next week, though there are some good stocks holding on in deep positions. Those that are hanging on will likely have a bull market whenever the correction is over.
Btw, if you are super confident of MARA's progress and think its the best thing since sliced bread, but you're not aware that the Nasdaq that MARA is within, just closed one of the largest weekly bearish momentum candles EVER, then stop trading.
If that's you then go away and re-think what you are doing because you are not observing critical detail and you're going to get rekt.
Comment:
You might read see a thread like this and assume it must be written by a confused boomer that doesn't understand your crypto secrets....
But a quick "heads up" I was long Bitcoin, Bitcoin miners, altcoins etc since January 2023 when many of you would have been soaking up the bearish vibes; too confused and scared to buy; perhaps listening to Jerome the bear talk up recessions and rate hikes etc.
And thats how it works in dumb money club.
You're always late but you dont realise it.
Late to enter.
Late to leave.
You don't realise you're in it.
But its a revolving door.
At the start you have money and what you think is a great idea.
And you tell yourself you're a smart guy but in your gut you know you haven't really put much time in.
Then you arrive late because you can't follow market dynamic but think you're early and you pass through the revolving door and put your money into the market.
At some point later you realise that your great idea was incorrect somehow and you take what little remains of your money and return back through the revolving door.
Then you go away until you have another "great idea" and the cycle repeats.
That is the dumb money revolving door.
What I am writing is meant to be provocative.
But it could also wake you up.
Because it is a psychological trap.
And once you've woken up to the trap then you can begin to really apply yourself.
Or leave and decide this isn't for you.
But if you haven't done the technical work and you can't hear sirens then you're going to be part of revolving door club.
Anyhow, here are yet more bearish sirens for you to consider.
This is the week chart with the blue 500 week moving average, the red 200 week MA and the green 50 week MA.
Notice the "S" above the peaks.
"S" is for "Shakeout."
These are all shakeout reversal patterns where price movers push up above the moving average where higher liquidity is.
They trigger a bunch of stop losses etc, then they collapse price back down (or vice versa) to further liquidate overleveraged traders etc
This is how they make profit.
Notice what happened twice already when price pushed up through the 200MA:
It had a hard slump back down.
On this occasion though it has risen above the 200MA and has twice breached above the very significant high time frame 500MA.
But it couldn't hold and within the slightly higher high; printed a bearish Shooting Star candle before collapsing back down.
So if you understand shakeouts, liquidity landmarks + candles; this is all very bearish and there will be a lot of resistance above following that double failure.
Last week's price tested the 50 week MA.
I think that if/when it slumps below that, it may be a real washout.
But thats somewhat speculative so we'll see.
I certainly wouldn't want to be long MARA here.
But a quick "heads up" I was long Bitcoin, Bitcoin miners, altcoins etc since January 2023 when many of you would have been soaking up the bearish vibes; too confused and scared to buy; perhaps listening to Jerome the bear talk up recessions and rate hikes etc.
And thats how it works in dumb money club.
You're always late but you dont realise it.
Late to enter.
Late to leave.
You don't realise you're in it.
But its a revolving door.
At the start you have money and what you think is a great idea.
And you tell yourself you're a smart guy but in your gut you know you haven't really put much time in.
Then you arrive late because you can't follow market dynamic but think you're early and you pass through the revolving door and put your money into the market.
At some point later you realise that your great idea was incorrect somehow and you take what little remains of your money and return back through the revolving door.
Then you go away until you have another "great idea" and the cycle repeats.
That is the dumb money revolving door.
What I am writing is meant to be provocative.
But it could also wake you up.
Because it is a psychological trap.
And once you've woken up to the trap then you can begin to really apply yourself.
Or leave and decide this isn't for you.
But if you haven't done the technical work and you can't hear sirens then you're going to be part of revolving door club.
Anyhow, here are yet more bearish sirens for you to consider.
This is the week chart with the blue 500 week moving average, the red 200 week MA and the green 50 week MA.
Notice the "S" above the peaks.
"S" is for "Shakeout."
These are all shakeout reversal patterns where price movers push up above the moving average where higher liquidity is.
They trigger a bunch of stop losses etc, then they collapse price back down (or vice versa) to further liquidate overleveraged traders etc
This is how they make profit.
Notice what happened twice already when price pushed up through the 200MA:
It had a hard slump back down.
On this occasion though it has risen above the 200MA and has twice breached above the very significant high time frame 500MA.
But it couldn't hold and within the slightly higher high; printed a bearish Shooting Star candle before collapsing back down.
So if you understand shakeouts, liquidity landmarks + candles; this is all very bearish and there will be a lot of resistance above following that double failure.
Last week's price tested the 50 week MA.
I think that if/when it slumps below that, it may be a real washout.
But thats somewhat speculative so we'll see.
I certainly wouldn't want to be long MARA here.
Comment:
None of this is actual advise btw, its just my opinion. Make a fortune, lose you shirt, or go fishing, its all on you.
I'm fishing right now with MARA, perhaps i'll get a very deep buy one day.
I'm fishing right now with MARA, perhaps i'll get a very deep buy one day.
Comment:
What I find funny is how willing "traders" are to throw their hard earned cash around but yet are unwilling to invest in educating themselves in market dynamic.
Pure greed, laziness and stupidity - am I right?
Ok, perhaps that is a bit harsh... but is it fair?
Without that investment in learning; what happens is you become obsessed with short term price action as your trades go on journeys.
Every little bump is cheered.
Every small slump is mourned.
And the irony is that by being unwilling to invest your brain into what you needed to know, you instead sentence your emotions to go on an endless rollercoaster journey of stressful ups and downs.
Does this sound familiar to you ?
The really funny part is that the critical detail here is drawn on for you in BIG RED WRITING;
"BEAR"
- courtesy of TradingView.
They did the work for you.
And to understand the significance of that bearish RSI is not high level TA.
MARA bounced today as I said it could do; it is a volatile stock.
But that bearish divergence remains unresolved.
Pure greed, laziness and stupidity - am I right?
Ok, perhaps that is a bit harsh... but is it fair?
Without that investment in learning; what happens is you become obsessed with short term price action as your trades go on journeys.
Every little bump is cheered.
Every small slump is mourned.
And the irony is that by being unwilling to invest your brain into what you needed to know, you instead sentence your emotions to go on an endless rollercoaster journey of stressful ups and downs.
Does this sound familiar to you ?
The really funny part is that the critical detail here is drawn on for you in BIG RED WRITING;
"BEAR"
- courtesy of TradingView.
They did the work for you.
And to understand the significance of that bearish RSI is not high level TA.
MARA bounced today as I said it could do; it is a volatile stock.
But that bearish divergence remains unresolved.
Comment:
MARA is currently hitting the Demand Line and coincidentally the 0.382 retracement both at the same time.
0.382 is a common reversal ratio in retracement of strong trends.
And the Demand Line will have plenty of resistance.
So this is the first real test of this uptrend.
Who knows what exactly will happen on a minute by minute time frame here and there could be plenty of shakeout shenanigans.
These time frames are only for heroes and computers to trade in.
All I am saying is that this is the first area of high resistance and that higher time frame bullish divergence will resolve and it will likely get nasty down the road.
Longs driven by greed and emotion will have seen the 12% uptick yesterday and will no doubt be pounding the buy button here.
0.382 is a common reversal ratio in retracement of strong trends.
And the Demand Line will have plenty of resistance.
So this is the first real test of this uptrend.
Who knows what exactly will happen on a minute by minute time frame here and there could be plenty of shakeout shenanigans.
These time frames are only for heroes and computers to trade in.
All I am saying is that this is the first area of high resistance and that higher time frame bullish divergence will resolve and it will likely get nasty down the road.
Longs driven by greed and emotion will have seen the 12% uptick yesterday and will no doubt be pounding the buy button here.
Comment:
Bearish divergence*
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Priority trades, round the clock updates and a 1 hour technical video per week 😼.
Make gains, learn technicals 🚀.
$50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
Big discounts coming for MARA.
You heard it here first...
Even though I initially made this call 3 weeks ago as you can see dated in the chart above 👀.
But all of TradingView was sleeping on this one.
Here's my bearish thread amongst all the bullish threads.