The U.S. equity market now appears "cheap" to many--the ones who have named this so called "V" shaped recovery in the U.S. equity markets, however it's important to keep context in mind when looking back at a decade of earnings growth compared to 1919.
Into December of 1919, the CAPE was at an all-time low. With so much focus on 1919 going into the COVID-19 pandemic among market commentary, the comparison that this chart allows to make is 1919 to 2019, with a suggestion of downtrend.
If the SPX indeed returns to multiples in 1919, that would put a market valuation of the SPX at around $500 according to the CAPE ratio.
Into December of 1919, the CAPE was at an all-time low. With so much focus on 1919 going into the COVID-19 pandemic among market commentary, the comparison that this chart allows to make is 1919 to 2019, with a suggestion of downtrend.
If the SPX indeed returns to multiples in 1919, that would put a market valuation of the SPX at around $500 according to the CAPE ratio.
Comment:
What is the CAPE ratio? It describes the price-earnings ratio over 10 years, rather than on a particular date. Called the Shiller P/E, it is calculated by dividing the price of a stock by its average earnings over the past 10 years, adjusted for inflation . It can also be used on an index such as the S&P 500 .