Nasdaq Intraday Review – Thursday 25 Jan 2024
I trade Nasdaq intraday exclusively
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
Looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend”
Tesla earnings came in below expectations and Tesla execs advised of lower growth for 2024. Not good.
Risk for the day was that Nasdaq might take a dip based on Tesla Earnings release.
But what makes trading in ”earnings week/s” hard is that you never how what investors will be sensitive to.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
A double bottom had formed on the 1H TF (marked by black lines).
Market was tracking a temporary uptrend line (marked in purple).
1H and 30min EMA + pivot point was above the candles (so bulls would need some strength to break through and would they have it after Tesla earnings?)
Long wick candles had formed on the 1H TF rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level (fib drawn from swing low at B. to swing high at D.)
A massive head and shoulders pattern had formed on the 1H TF (indicated by the pink lines)
The neckline of this pink pattern was just above the 1H EMA, so a big chance for bears to step in and cause a big push down.
I entered a buy at A. (at 60% of my usual position size) – Confirmations:
Fib – candles rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level
Candlesticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF
Market pattern – break of the neckline of the double bottom on the 1H TF
Trendline – market respecting the purple uptrend line
An aggressive entry, especially based on what bulls had to break through after negative Telsa news.
Mental stop loss placed by the thick pink line – if candles started breaking below 0.50 fib level then buy is invalidated.
Bears fought hard at the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders, you can see the two red candles after A.
Eventually bulls came out victorious and market pushed up.
On New York open, market pushed down heavily to retest the pivot point and seems now (at time of writing) to be moving up.
I closed 50% of my position when I noted that market open might push down hard. It can often be the case that New York has a totally different sentiment to the earlier traders and I was sensitive again to the bad Tesla earnings.
Luckily I still have quite a significant runner open and will judge by price action on when to take profit – but rough plan is to maybe take profit once more today and consider leaving a runner for next week’s (hopefully) good earnings from some of the Magnificent Seven stocks.
What could I have done differently:
Sounds all good and easy on paper…but the reality is that I chickened out at E. and closed my full position.
I re-entered again at about A. when I saw bulls regaining strength.
I was super scared that bears would dominate, as the potential move down (the same distance as the height of the pattern) could have been to C.
One of my development goals currently is learning to stick to my trade plan. Market was not at my stop loss and I acted out of fear. These small losses eat away unnecessarily at profit.
Hope you navigated the market well today…it was a tough one!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average
Trading in GMT time zone
Sharing my post day review & analysis in case it can help you :)
Did my analysis at +- 5:20am.
Looking exclusively for a buy – “The trend is your friend”
Tesla earnings came in below expectations and Tesla execs advised of lower growth for 2024. Not good.
Risk for the day was that Nasdaq might take a dip based on Tesla Earnings release.
But what makes trading in ”earnings week/s” hard is that you never how what investors will be sensitive to.
At time of analysis I noted the following:
A double bottom had formed on the 1H TF (marked by black lines).
Market was tracking a temporary uptrend line (marked in purple).
1H and 30min EMA + pivot point was above the candles (so bulls would need some strength to break through and would they have it after Tesla earnings?)
Long wick candles had formed on the 1H TF rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level (fib drawn from swing low at B. to swing high at D.)
A massive head and shoulders pattern had formed on the 1H TF (indicated by the pink lines)
The neckline of this pink pattern was just above the 1H EMA, so a big chance for bears to step in and cause a big push down.
I entered a buy at A. (at 60% of my usual position size) – Confirmations:
Fib – candles rejecting the 0.50 buy fib level
Candlesticks – long wick candles on the 1H TF
Market pattern – break of the neckline of the double bottom on the 1H TF
Trendline – market respecting the purple uptrend line
An aggressive entry, especially based on what bulls had to break through after negative Telsa news.
Mental stop loss placed by the thick pink line – if candles started breaking below 0.50 fib level then buy is invalidated.
Bears fought hard at the neckline of the 1H head and shoulders, you can see the two red candles after A.
Eventually bulls came out victorious and market pushed up.
On New York open, market pushed down heavily to retest the pivot point and seems now (at time of writing) to be moving up.
I closed 50% of my position when I noted that market open might push down hard. It can often be the case that New York has a totally different sentiment to the earlier traders and I was sensitive again to the bad Tesla earnings.
Luckily I still have quite a significant runner open and will judge by price action on when to take profit – but rough plan is to maybe take profit once more today and consider leaving a runner for next week’s (hopefully) good earnings from some of the Magnificent Seven stocks.
What could I have done differently:
Sounds all good and easy on paper…but the reality is that I chickened out at E. and closed my full position.
I re-entered again at about A. when I saw bulls regaining strength.
I was super scared that bears would dominate, as the potential move down (the same distance as the height of the pattern) could have been to C.
One of my development goals currently is learning to stick to my trade plan. Market was not at my stop loss and I acted out of fear. These small losses eat away unnecessarily at profit.
Hope you navigated the market well today…it was a tough one!
TF = timeframe
TP = take profit
1H = 1 hour
4H = 4 hour
D = day
W = week
M = month
S&R = support and resistance
EMA = exponential moving average