Despite a generally choppy market since February this year, Nasdaq had a Golden Cross on 13 March which turned out to be sustainable and some encouraging signs are also observed since:
1. NQ began to lead the other indices (namely SPX and IWM), a sign of a "risk off" sentiment as it means more money had been piling back into "riskier" tech & discretionary stocks
2. NQ had stayed above it's 50 day moving average (> 2 months now) with rather "shallow" retracements no more than 38% of each mini swing.
3. However, SPX was mostly stuck in a range for the past 1.5 months (despite being above it's 200 day MA), hence it can still make trading the wrong stocks rather frustrating.
4. IWM (Russell 2000, ie., small caps) has been the laggard, still unable to rise (much, if at all). This is normal during an "early" bull market.
Small caps usually begin to rise in a more sustainable manner when the bull market is well underway, and should they start to get extremely bullish, then it is usually a sign that a market top might be in the horizon.
Now that Nasdaq has been taking leadership (especially the FAANGS) for the past 2 months+, the sentiment remains sanguine.
Some caution now as it is approaching a critical resistence zone 13650 - 13720 (prior peak in Aug2022), and some pullback in the near term will not be too surprising
The depth of the next retracement going forward will give a clue if the uptrend is still intact.
Should NQ be able to clear this resistence zone (13720) eventually, then the overall market sentiment could get a good boost (including the small caps). Perhaps the resolution of the Debt Ceiling could be the catalyst?
But until then.
Just my take. Let's see :)
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!
1. NQ began to lead the other indices (namely SPX and IWM), a sign of a "risk off" sentiment as it means more money had been piling back into "riskier" tech & discretionary stocks
2. NQ had stayed above it's 50 day moving average (> 2 months now) with rather "shallow" retracements no more than 38% of each mini swing.
3. However, SPX was mostly stuck in a range for the past 1.5 months (despite being above it's 200 day MA), hence it can still make trading the wrong stocks rather frustrating.
4. IWM (Russell 2000, ie., small caps) has been the laggard, still unable to rise (much, if at all). This is normal during an "early" bull market.
Small caps usually begin to rise in a more sustainable manner when the bull market is well underway, and should they start to get extremely bullish, then it is usually a sign that a market top might be in the horizon.
Now that Nasdaq has been taking leadership (especially the FAANGS) for the past 2 months+, the sentiment remains sanguine.
Some caution now as it is approaching a critical resistence zone 13650 - 13720 (prior peak in Aug2022), and some pullback in the near term will not be too surprising
The depth of the next retracement going forward will give a clue if the uptrend is still intact.
Should NQ be able to clear this resistence zone (13720) eventually, then the overall market sentiment could get a good boost (including the small caps). Perhaps the resolution of the Debt Ceiling could be the catalyst?
But until then.
Just my take. Let's see :)
Disclaimer: Just my 2 cents and not a trade advice. Kindly do your own due diligence and trade according to your own risk tolerance and don't forget that money management is important! Take care and Good Luck!