Hang Seng Bear Market, Dollar Break Out, Vix Up, Welcome to Opex
Good morning, folks, and happy Friday! Welcome to Opex; let's get right into our analysis. It was another shakey overnight session with Asian stocks leading global futures lower after China said it would pass a strict privacy law by Nov 1st, directly affecting tech and ecommerce companies and their collection and use of certain types of data from their customers. The Hang Seng is now officially in a bear market (>20% drop from the ATH).
As of 8:15AM the Dow is down -0.52% to 34,711, the S&P is down -0.40% to 4,388, the Nasdaq is down -0.14% to 14,913, and the Russell is down -0.55% to 2,117.
The Vix is sitting at 22.93 after rallying earlier this morning around 3:00AM toward 23.90. We've just retested the descending trendline once again, and we saw a light rejection. We have solid momo in vol this week, and today's Opex could really escalate the risk off move we've been seeing across global markets. I'm expecting another leg higher in Vix as early as next week, so my plan is to prepare for some potentially ugly month end selling, then reassess our short to medium term outlook.
The US10Y yield continues to sink as investors flood into USTs in search of a safe haven. We're sitting on top the 50MA (w) at 1.23% and although we appear to have found support here, this is the 3rd test of support, and if it goes, it could trigger aggressive bond buying/risk off behaviour.
The Dollar (DXY) is in the process of breaking out into the wedge. We're up again this morning and we just saw a new HOD at 93.708. If we end the week at the high's, let's say a 94 handle, this could set us up for a massive breakout toward the 95/96 area as early as next week.
Let's see how the cookie crumbles on this beautiful Friday. Good luck out there today, my friends, and see you all at 9:30AM for our live analysis and weekly wrap up. Cheers! Michael.
* I am/we are currently long UVXY, HUV.
As of 8:15AM the Dow is down -0.52% to 34,711, the S&P is down -0.40% to 4,388, the Nasdaq is down -0.14% to 14,913, and the Russell is down -0.55% to 2,117.
The Vix is sitting at 22.93 after rallying earlier this morning around 3:00AM toward 23.90. We've just retested the descending trendline once again, and we saw a light rejection. We have solid momo in vol this week, and today's Opex could really escalate the risk off move we've been seeing across global markets. I'm expecting another leg higher in Vix as early as next week, so my plan is to prepare for some potentially ugly month end selling, then reassess our short to medium term outlook.
The US10Y yield continues to sink as investors flood into USTs in search of a safe haven. We're sitting on top the 50MA (w) at 1.23% and although we appear to have found support here, this is the 3rd test of support, and if it goes, it could trigger aggressive bond buying/risk off behaviour.
The Dollar (DXY) is in the process of breaking out into the wedge. We're up again this morning and we just saw a new HOD at 93.708. If we end the week at the high's, let's say a 94 handle, this could set us up for a massive breakout toward the 95/96 area as early as next week.
Let's see how the cookie crumbles on this beautiful Friday. Good luck out there today, my friends, and see you all at 9:30AM for our live analysis and weekly wrap up. Cheers! Michael.
* I am/we are currently long UVXY, HUV.