Chart shows the credit cycles of fed fund rates and bond futures ranging from short term expiring bonds up to 30 year bonds. S&P Nasdaq and Bitcoin are compared to historical changes in fed fund rate and bond futures. As the chart indicates when fed fund rates reach their lowest point we call this "easy street" all markets seem to steadily rise in this part of the cycle. As futures start contracting and rising off the low rates markets typically see a choppy/semi bullish price action. As the fed reaches the top of the hiking cycle markets tend to break higher highs and a melt up stage occurs. The last part of the cycle is the fed pivots rates start dropping and futures expand we have a market drop. Then we start the cycle all over again.
It seems as though markets are now in the hiking cycle with futures contracting. Although markets did not see a semi/bullish choppy stage as of yet but I think that we are entering that stage now. This would be a stock pickers market with choppy bullish price action. We should have a blow off top once rates reach their highest point and of course another drop once the fed pivots. This is the historical cycle and although history does not repeat it does tend to rhyme. Past performance of course is no indication of futures results. Take this with a grain of salt because things could shift but my belief is that we will still have the blow off top once the fed stops hiking rates. Any comments are welcome but if this holds true. It is your cheat code for future cycles. Happy and safe trading. "There are many roads to success but one must be chosen"
It seems as though markets are now in the hiking cycle with futures contracting. Although markets did not see a semi/bullish choppy stage as of yet but I think that we are entering that stage now. This would be a stock pickers market with choppy bullish price action. We should have a blow off top once rates reach their highest point and of course another drop once the fed pivots. This is the historical cycle and although history does not repeat it does tend to rhyme. Past performance of course is no indication of futures results. Take this with a grain of salt because things could shift but my belief is that we will still have the blow off top once the fed stops hiking rates. Any comments are welcome but if this holds true. It is your cheat code for future cycles. Happy and safe trading. "There are many roads to success but one must be chosen"