FOMC Rates Decision and the Effect on Gold
**Repost from Dec 13th 2022 since the original post disappeared**
Economic indicators from the past month indicate that the price of services is the key factor that helps prevent a rapid decline in inflation , although the price of goods had already dropped considerably and the labor market remained strong, showing no signs of slowing down the inflation rate.
USCPMI
In the graph above, one of the key economic indicators, the ISM Service Sector Index for the month of November, accelerated to 56.5, above the forecasted rate of 53.5 and the previous month's level of 54.4. Despite the rise in interest rates from the FED, the ISM indicated that the services sector is still going strong, correlating with the positive outcome in labor market data.
FOMC Rates Decision 15 December 2022
Previous = 3.75-4.00% - Prediction from Bloomberg, OE, Forex Factory, Trading Economics = 4.25-4.50%
Bloomberg, Oxford Economics, the Forex Factory, and Trading Economics predict that the Federal Reserve's interest rate will rise by 0.50%. The market forecast for the highest interest rate as of December 9, 2022 is 4.75-5.00% in May 2023, with a gradual decrease beginning in the third quarter of 2023.
However, because the services sector has been performing well, the FED's interest rate cut may come later than expected by the market. Thus, from a fundamental standpoint, the USD is expected to continue appreciating, albeit not as strongly as in recent months. On the other hand, the gold price is expected to fall.
Economic indicators from the past month indicate that the price of services is the key factor that helps prevent a rapid decline in inflation , although the price of goods had already dropped considerably and the labor market remained strong, showing no signs of slowing down the inflation rate.
USCPMI
In the graph above, one of the key economic indicators, the ISM Service Sector Index for the month of November, accelerated to 56.5, above the forecasted rate of 53.5 and the previous month's level of 54.4. Despite the rise in interest rates from the FED, the ISM indicated that the services sector is still going strong, correlating with the positive outcome in labor market data.
FOMC Rates Decision 15 December 2022
Previous = 3.75-4.00% - Prediction from Bloomberg, OE, Forex Factory, Trading Economics = 4.25-4.50%
Bloomberg, Oxford Economics, the Forex Factory, and Trading Economics predict that the Federal Reserve's interest rate will rise by 0.50%. The market forecast for the highest interest rate as of December 9, 2022 is 4.75-5.00% in May 2023, with a gradual decrease beginning in the third quarter of 2023.
However, because the services sector has been performing well, the FED's interest rate cut may come later than expected by the market. Thus, from a fundamental standpoint, the USD is expected to continue appreciating, albeit not as strongly as in recent months. On the other hand, the gold price is expected to fall.