Crude oil analysis

Crude oil prices are struggling as investors weigh recent hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve despite cooling U.S. consumer inflation data last week. Fed Vice Chairman Michael Barr said on Monday that the Fed is in a good position to keep policy steady and focus on the economy.

Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she no longer believes three rate cuts in 2024 are appropriate. She stressed that inflation risks are skewed to the upside and given the strength of the economy, there is no harm in taking more time to collect inflation data.

The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September fell slightly to 60% from 65% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

In Canada, the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX) began commercial operations this month, overcoming years of regulatory delays and construction setbacks. The expansion will transport an additional 590,000 barrels per day from Alberta to Canada's Pacific Coast.

Investors are now turning their attention to supply from OPEC and its affiliates (OPEC+). They are scheduled to meet on June 1 to set output policy, which will include a decision on whether to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by some members.

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