GOLD stabilizes above EMA21 support

XAUUSD market could see more volatility next week on news from the Federal Reserve and is expected to signal that it will not be ready to cut interest rates in June.
Although expectations of loosening policy by the US Federal Reserve are fading, gold prices have also increased about 17% since February this year.

Gold's strong performance is linked to central bank buying, and volatile geopolitical tensions.
New inflation data reinforces the view that high interest rates are here to stay for now. The Fed's preferred gauge of core inflation, U.S. PCE data rose 0.3% in March and rose 2.8% year-on-year, unchanged from the previous month. Figures from the beginning of this year were also adjusted slightly upward.
Worrying inflation data for three straight months suggests progress towards the central bank's 2% target has stalled and suggests the first round of interest rate cuts will continue to be delayed. Investors are expecting one or two rate cuts this year starting in November, but concerns are growing that the Fed may not reduce borrowing costs by 2024.

Fed policy decisions and US nonfarm data will be the macro focus next week
Next Friday, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its April jobs report. If U.S. nonfarm payroll growth slows significantly to below 200,000, that could trigger a sell off the US Dollar and cause an immediate positive reaction to gold prices.
If nonfarm payroll growth is stronger than expected, especially if wage inflation data is hot, that could increase market expectations that the Fed will not act in September and put gold on the back foot. under pressure to reduce prices.

Even if the data does not have a significant impact on expectations for a June rate cut, it could still weigh on the dollar if investors favor a policy change in September.
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool shows that the market expects the probability of the Fed keeping policy rates unchanged in September to be 42.6%.
Investors should also pay attention to other data including US ADP and the Fed's Monetary Policy Decision due on Wednesday, and Jobless Claims on Thursday.

Economic data to watch next week
Tuesday: US consumer confidence index
Wednesday: ADP nonfarm payrolls, ISM manufacturing PMI, JOLTS vacancies, Fed monetary policy decision
Thursday: Weekly unemployment claims
Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls (NDP), ISM Services PMI, US April Unemployment Rate

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD

Gold has recovered after a period of sudden correction, taking support from the EMA21 level and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement. Note to readers in last week's weekly issue and currently gold is also active at The position is quite positive, above the EMA21 and above the technical level of 2,322USD.

Maintaining activity above the EMA21 level opens up the possibility of gold continuing to recover with last week's target at $2,365 still not achieved.

Currently, the gold price still has all the technical conditions for a possible increase in price with main support at EMA21 and the 0.236% Fibonacci retracement level. However, gold will also face the possibility of further declines once it breaks below the 0.236% Fibonacci level, the downside target level could then reach the upper edge of the price channel, more than the 0.382% Fibonacci retracement level. Therefore, if long, open long positions should be protected behind the 0.236% Fibonacci level.

Gold has a technical outlook that favors the possibility of an increase in gold prices. The technical levels will be noted and listed as follows.
Support: 2,322 – 2,310 – 2,300 – 2,284USD
Resistance: 2,345 – 2,365USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2361 - 2359

⚰️SL: 2365

⬆️TP1: 2354
⬆️TP2: 2349

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2304 - 2306

⚰️SL: 2300

⬆️TP1: 2311
⬆️TP2: 2316

Comment:

As of early Asian session, spot gold price was stable around 2,330 USD/oz - up nearly 5% over the month - ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. After higher-than-expected inflation data was released in recent months, authorities are expected to change their stance in Hawkish's direction.

Comment:

Trade closed: target reached:

Plan BUY HIT TP1 +90pips. Heading to TP2😵

Comment:

⭕️The dollar declines ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s decision

The US dollar witnessed clearly stable movements during early trading on Wednesday, but the greenback quickly declined, affected by growing market concerns about weak US economic growth.

Comment:

According to its Financial Stability Report released on Wednesday, the RBNZ said that although global inflation is showing signs of cooling and financial markets predict interest rates will fall next year, "there remains a risk of new or persistent inflationary pressures". This could cause global interest rates to remain high for longer, putting pressure on households, businesses and the financial system.

Comment:

🔺Spot gold prices fell sharply during trading on Thursday, erasing some of the gains achieved by the precious metal in the previous session, as a result of the strength of the US dollar and the rise in US Treasury bond yields, which coincided with a calming of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the decline of fears of a regional war breaking out in the region.

Comment:

Goldman Sachs economists said Wednesday they still expect two interest rate cuts this year after a “mostly quiet but peaceful” meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Comment:

Fed's Bowman : I remain open to raising the federal funds rate at a future meeting if data show inflation progress stalling or reversing.