XAUUSD Hits Record Peaks: Analyzing the Easter Surge

Post-holiday trading began with a bang as gold (XAUUSD) hit a historic high of 2266, capping off a quarter of consecutive gains since last year's breakout above the previous high of 2149. The swift 27-day rally added a 225-point spread, indicating a profitable 1:2 risk-reward ratio. As we move into the new quarter and march toward mid-2024, the opening on Monday not only marked new highs for gold but also spotlighted the 2255 level, showing reactive pricing at two key support-resistance junctions (2262/2235) and touching the upper edge of the long-term uptrend channel. Resistance potentially forms between 2262-2292, affirming the intact uptrend and cautioning against premature short positions.

Three different path scenarios are sketched out in various colors on the chart, alongside considerations for the upcoming week, notably the ADP/NFP data release.

Trading Considerations:
Bullish positions should eye the supportive levels near 2228, 2183, and 2158 for short-term long entries, with a uniform stop-loss reference near 2123. In the absence of a clear reversal and with aspirations to explore peaks, the range between 2277-2292 beckons but waits for opportune market conditions, with 2255 potentially being a focal point for high-level consolidation in the sessions to come.

Macro Indicators:
Gold's price has reached new heights, but gains were tempered following a surge in the USD and bond yields. Powell’s comments on inflation being "what we want to see" suggest a potential rate cut as early as June, fostering continued bullish sentiment for gold, which has risen over 8% year to date.

Looking ahead, Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report will be pivotal in assessing the US job market's health and could further impact gold's trajectory.