Carvana
CVNA Carvana - Is it on your watchlist?CVNA Carvana is starting to move above the 200 day EMA 'watermark'. As interest rates level off and eventually come down, the consumer will have a green light to make big purchases again. CVNA shows a lot of opportunity (800%?) between current price and all-time highs. Why is Carvana not on your watchlist?
Carvana Shares Spike 35% on Earnings Beat First Quarter Results
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) stock Skyrocketed more than 30% during Thursday's market open after the used car retailer reported record results and turned a profit during the first quarter.
Company's Performance
Earnings per share: 23 cents — it was not immediately clear if it was comparable to the loss of 74 cents expected.
Revenue: $3.06 billion reported Vs. $2.67 billion expected
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) reported record first-quarter net income of $49 million, compared to a $286 million loss during the prior-year period. Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) also posted an all-time-best adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA, of $235 million, up from a $24 million loss a year earlier.
Carvana's ( NYSE:CVNA ) gross profit per unit, or GPU, which is closely watched by investors, was $6,432. Carvana’s adjusted EBITDA profit margin for the quarter was 7.7%.
Carvana’s net income included a roughly $75 million gain in the fair value of Carvana’s warrants to acquire Root Inc. common stock. This did not impact its GPU or adjusted EBITDA.
“In Q1, we delivered our best results in company history, validating our long-held belief that Carvana’s online retail model can drive industry-leading profitability while delivering industry-leading customer experiences,” Carvana CEO and Chairman Ernie Garcia III said in a release.
He reiterated that the company’s performance was driven by efficiency gains in its operations, especially the reconditioning of vehicles for sale as well as selling, general, and administrative expenses, among other areas.
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) expects to continue to grow its adjusted EBITDA profit margin further as the company continues to grow, according to Garcia. He declined to disclose how high the company believes it can grow those results.
The company anticipates further cost reductions or efficiency gains to increase profitability through areas such as advertising as well as overhead and operational expenses.
Garcia said Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) is working on increasing vehicle reconditioning and profitably rebuilding its vehicle inventory, which was nearing an all-time monthly low of 13 days’ supply in March. It has increased its reconditioning capacity of vehicles to prepare for sale by roughly 60% during the past year.
he told CNBC that “Acquiring inventories, generally speaking, feel relatively straightforward to scale, but growing the recondition capacity is difficult,”. “Inventory today is certainly tighter than we would like for it to be. We’re working hard to build it back up, but we’re extremely well-positioned to do it.”
Over the past two years, the results follow a major restructuring by the company to focus on profitability rather than growth, after bankruptcy concerns when Carvana’s stock lost nearly all of its value in 2022.
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) Shares have recovered since then. They had climbed roughly 67% year to date before the company reported its first-quarter results. The stock closed Wednesday up about 5% at $87.09 per share.
For Q2, Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) said it expects a sequential increase in its year-over-year growth rate in retail units, and a sequential increase in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
Technical Outlook
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) stock is trading within the overbought region with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 82.10 posing a threat of a trend reversal in the near term. Furthermore, the stock indicates a breakaway gap which occurs when the price gaps above a support or resistance area due to a news or fundamental.
CARVANA $CVNA | RANGE BREAKOUT BEFORE EARNINGS - Apr. 23rd,CARVANA NYSE:CVNA | RANGE BREAKOUT BEFORE EARNINGS - Apr. 23rd, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $72.50 - $81.25
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $68.50 - $72.50
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $60.00 - $68.50
Weekly: DNT
Daily: DNT
4H: DNT, lean bullish
This was requested at the end of last week but I didn't get around to it. I drew up this NYSE:CVNA chart analysis yesterday as I was entering a new trade, but wanted to wait until today to post it. I did not adjust the zones and kept them as they were yesterday, even though today price has already broken into the bullish zone, there is still room to enter new trades to the upside, or if bears want to take on some extra risk they could enter extremely early here if they expect a pullback. Earnings release next Wednesday, May 1st, 2024, and I'm looking to take advantage of possible volatility. NYSE:CVNA has broken down structure on the weekly timeframe, developed bearish structure on the daily (which is now broken as of today), and had a defined range on the 4H (which was also broken as of today).
Previous NYSE:CVNA trade idea is linked below!
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
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CARVANA $CVNA - Feb. 15th, 2024CARVANA NYSE:CVNA - Feb. 15th, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $48.00 - $60.00
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $40.00 - $48.00
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): $25.25 - $40.00
By request. My main focus would be on the range between $40.00 - $48.00, this area has determined the trend five times, which are seen each time price touches and breaks or touches and rejects. Currently I'm looking at a bull trend that was set after a breakout of the range in the $40-$48 zone. Any data before June 2023 I was not considering. If I had to look for an upside target, assuming the trend stays bullish long term once price reaches $60, the next logical point would be $103. Due to the lack of data and because price is trading away from the start of my bullish zone, I personally would not look to enter until there is a reaction to the $60 area or a pullback to the $48/$49 zone.
Carvana's Remarkable Turnaround: From Debt Reduction to Profits Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ), the online used car retailer, has announced its first-ever annual profit, signaling a remarkable turnaround for the company. Bolstered by strategic debt reduction measures and a surge in demand for used cars during the pandemic, Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) has defied expectations and emerged stronger than ever.
The company's journey to profitability has been anything but smooth. Like many businesses, Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) faced unprecedented challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic, with disruptions in supply chains and fluctuations in consumer behavior. However, instead of succumbing to these challenges, Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) seized the opportunity to innovate and adapt.
One of the key factors contributing to Carvana's ( NYSE:CVNA ) newfound success is its aggressive approach to debt reduction. By slashing its outstanding debt by a staggering $1 billion through a strategic pact with bondholders, Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) has significantly strengthened its financial position and improved its liquidity. This move not only alleviated immediate financial pressures but also instilled confidence among investors, leading to a surge in the company's stock price.
Moreover, Carvana's astute management of inventory and expenses has played a crucial role in its turnaround strategy. Recognizing the need to clear excess inventory acquired at elevated prices, the company implemented measures to streamline operations and optimize efficiency. This included trimming inventory levels, reducing advertising expenditure, and focusing on cost-saving initiatives, all of which have contributed to improving the company's bottom line.
Furthermore, Carvana's ( NYSE:CVNA ) ability to capitalize on shifting market dynamics has been instrumental in driving its profitability. During the height of the pandemic, as global chip shortages disrupted new car production and fueled demand for used cars, Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) positioned itself as a leading player in the online automotive retail space. Leveraging its innovative platform and seamless digital experience, Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) captured a significant share of the market, attracting a new wave of customers seeking alternative car-buying options.
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) remains optimistic about its prospects for growth. The company's forecast of an adjusted core profit for the first quarter "significantly above" $100 million underscores its confidence in its ability to sustain momentum. Additionally, with retail units expected to increase in the first quarter of 2024 and retail gross profit per unit remaining robust, Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) is well-positioned to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the used car market.
Carvana ( NYSE:CVNA ) has not only overcome obstacles but has also emerged as a formidable player in the automotive industry. As the company continues to chart its course toward growth and profitability, investors and stakeholders alike can take pride in Carvana's remarkable transformation.
The Best and Worst Trades of 2023 💪First of all… happy new year to all traders, globally!
As the year comes to an end, and the new year begins, it’s time to join us in reviewing the top trades that defined our unforgettable year together. Marked by a historic market recovery across various global asset classes, including stocks, cryptocurrencies, and bonds, 2023 has been a memorable year for all of us.
Among the best performers, the Nasdaq-100 showed an incredible run, climbing more than 50% over the course of the year, while Bitcoin emerged as another noteworthy recovery adding more than $500 billion back to its market cap. While these two stories make many headlines, there’s much more to discuss and look into. After all, that’s what markets are about - research, planning, and data to find the next great trade.
Below, we'll recap these highlights, featuring charts and statistics that explain what happened in 2023 and some emerging trends to watch in 2024.
The best trades of 2023
Long Carvana +1063%
Long Solana +994%
Long Coinbase +448%
Long Avalanche +296%
Long Nvidia +245%
Long Bitcoin +161%
Long US dollars versus Turkish Lira +57%
Long Nasdaq-100 +55%
Short Natural Gas -38%
Short VIX -45%
For those who want to see more data, we’ve created handy lists for you below. Here are the best and worst for some of the most important asset classes:
The best stocks by market cap over $5 billion:
1. Carvana +1063%
2. Bridgegbio +502%
3. Coinbase +448%
4. Affirm +464%
5. Microstrategy +360%
6. Symbotic +346%
7. Applovin +275%
8. Super Micro Computer +253%
9. NVIDIA +245%
10. DraftKings +222%
Notable: Duolingo +232%
The worst stocks by market cap over $5 billion:
1. JD -53%
2. Moderna -45%
3. Pfizer -45%
4. Dollar general -45%
5. Estee Lauder -43%
6. Bayer -35%
7. Hertz -30%
8. Nokia -30%
9. Etsy -28%
10. Alibaba -19%
Notable: NIO -18%
The best performers in crypto by market cap over $3 billion:
1. Solana +994%
2. Chainlink +191%
3. Avalanche +296%
4. Bitcoin +161%
5. Cardano +155%
6. Polkadot +103%
7. Ethereum +97%
8. Tron +92%
9. XRP +88%
10. Dogecoin +33%
The biggest changes in forex - all pairs:
1. Swiss Franc / Turkish Lira +72%
2. British Pound / Turkish Lira +67%
3. Euro / Turkish Lira +63%
4. US Dollar / Turkish Lira +57%
5. Euro / Russian Ruble +33%
6. US Dollar / Russian Ruble +29%
7. Mexican Peso / Japanese Yen +25%
8. Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen +19%
9. British Pound / Japanese Yen +15%
10. Euro / Japanese Yen +13%
The best performers in commodities:
1. Cocoa +66%
2. Cattle +23%
3. Gold +13%
4. Sugar +4%
The worst performers in commodities:
1. Natgas -38%
2. Corn -29%
3. Wheat -20%
4. Soybean -11%
Indices:
1. Merval +321%
2. Nasdaq +55%
3. NIKKEI +31%
4. S&P 500 +25%
5. IBEX 35 +21%
6. DAX40 +19%
7. Russell 2000 +18%
8. Eurostoxx 50 +17%
9. CAC40 +15%
10. Eurostoxx 600 +11%
Notables:
Hang Seng -17%
VIX -45%
Thanks for being a part of our community and we look forward to celebrating the end of 2023 and the start of 2024. For those of you who read this far down, we have a game for you – can you spot the new tool we’ve added for 2024?
Happy new year, traders! Stay tuned for more great announcements.
TradingView
CVNA is Ready to Rally
NYSE:CVNA Carvana Co. found a bottom at the all time low of 3.57 on Dec 7, 2022 after a significant decline from all time highs above 375 in August of 2021. The boom was largely driven by economic factors, there was a booming Used Car market with ultra-low interest rates and a desire to stay indoors with the pandemic that pushed people to use the new type of car-buying delivery service. The following bust was also largely economic: a waning Used Car market, rising interest rates and a subsequent bunch of bad earnings for CVNA.
Now CVNA has steadied revenue, consistent Green Earnings Beats and made consistent higher lows from the bottom and shown strong supports at 7, 25, and 38. While up nearly 15x from the low a year ago, there is a lot of room to run even at current prices. Strong growth potential and the acquisition of brick/mortar car dispensers will allow for more robust revenue beneath the continued growth in deliveries as interest rates level out and the Used Car market resurfaces.
Expect this major bounce momentum off the All Time Low to continue to at least a 38% retracement and previous resistance levels of 145 at a minimum target. With time and consistent momentum, as we've seen over previous years on this asset, prices will likely go back up to common retracement levels .500, .618, .786 and even beyond to new highs. While it could continue, this asset is very volatile, be sure to take profits at target levels.
Carvana breakoutWith hindsight, it wasn't wise to buy NYSE:CVNA as it gapped up (blue arrow). Luckily, the stock has consolidated without breaking down. Yesterday, following the FOMC decision, it broke above the consolidation range. Expect an upside move on NYSE:CVNA but there might be a resistance near $56.
CVNA Carvana Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought CVNA here:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CVNA Carvana prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 25usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2023-11-17,
for a premium of approximately $3.95.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Are we forming a Bull Flag in Carvana?Hi guys! This is a quick analysis on my opinions on a current chart pattern that may be playing out in Carvana (CVNA).
At first glance you can notice the formation of a Bull Flag on the 1 Week CVNA chart.
As you can see we have had our Sharp price move to the Upside, almost resembling a straight line up. This is known as the Flagpole. The Volume spike seen in this move is supportive of this phase.
Followed by a pause or sideways action resembling a parallelogram. Here we see diminishing Volume, which is supportive of this phase as well.
This pause is to consolidate/ take a break from such a massive uptick in price during formation of the flagpole.
Flag patterns are known to be one of the most reliable continuation patterns and are said to rarely lead to Reversal of Trend.
Currently we are in the process, on our current Daily Candle of trying to breakout.
But we are meeting with Serious Resistance, depicted by a MASSIVE Upper Wick. Ideally, i'd like to see a larger body at the close of today's candle.
Could this still lead to a break out? Well one thing to check is the VOLUME.
For a breakout to occur we need to see a Massive Spike in VOLUME.
Which we have not seen yet.
Could be warning for a test back down to the lower rim of the parallelogram. This would also lengthen the time spent in forming this pattern.
Also note that Flag patterns are normally short term patterns and shuold breakout within 1 to 3 weeks, as per theory.
We are currently 8 bars in on the weekly chart indicating 8 weeks of consolidation.
This is Not Textbook. Which has me second guessing if this is a Bull Flag.
We have so much Resistance Above us, and the massive sharp move from $3, didnt create strong market structure. This in my opinion could lead to a collapse of current move with a massive correction.
Continue to monitor this. Remember to trade a Bull Flag:
You must wait for a breakout with CONFIRMATION before you take positions.
I would personally not take a trade inside the pattern. Watch for signs of rejection here as well.
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Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
Stay tuned for more updates on CVNA in the near future.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
CARVANA Signs of a PULLBACK Evident and TARGET AREASHi guys, this is a technical Analysis on Carvana (CVNA) on the 3 Day Timeframe.
We've had a MASSIVE rally in CVNA, from MAY till reaching our current MAJOR RESISTANCE ZONE indicated by the GREEN RECTANGLE with RED borders.
We've reached it and got rejected from it on July 19th. We've made our way back up however and are currently forming a LOWER HIGH. Note however, our current 3 DAY candle closes on the 9th of August. Make sure to pay attention.
Friday we had a 12% sell off, where currently our price action is below the 0.786 FIB Level. If we close below on the 9th, the other FIB levels become more probable to reach. Becoming BUY ZONES and Potential PRICE BOUNCE areas.
Our MASSIVE RALLY occurred due to 2 TA reasons:
1. MASSIVE BULLISH ENGULFING CANDLE that blew past MAJOR REISTANCE TREND LINE from BLOW OFF TOP (BLACK line)
2. GOLDEN CROSS, where the 21 EMA CROSSED ABOVE 50 D SMA
However in my Opinion this rally, is NOT sustainable. Notice how SLOPED it is, indicated by this sharp upward channel in BLACK.
I believe something is going to give, especially now that we hit this MAJOR RESISTANCE RECTANGLE ZONE.
I also believe we have not created strong MARKET STRUCTURE, we just went PARABOLIC. This has weak foundation and is probable for a price correction.
Our direction i believe is to fall to the various TREND lines, MOVING AVERAGES and FIB Zones i drew, put on charts and highlighted, respectively.
Notice the trendline our current PRICE ACTION is resting on, if we BREAK this, look to the LOWER SUPPORT TRENDLINE of the UPSLOPING CHANNEL.
I am also looking to the 0.618 FIB and 0.5 FIB Levels as BUY ZONES and areas we test, especially if we CONFIRM BELOW the 0.786 FIB level.
AND Note: It is also likely that when we TEST the FIB levels as SUPPORT, PRICE can move up. Remember that if we don't reclaim or CONFIRM as SUPPORT ABOVE the previous FIB level we broke down from, it is likely price falls again.
I am also looking at the 21 EMA (ORANGE Moving Average) as another area i believe we may test as SUPPORT in the days to come. I Use this EMA alot to indicate BULL TRENDS and BEARISH TRENDS.
When PRICE is ABOVE = BULLISH, or BELOW = BEARISH.
Another interaction that occurs is that sometimes when stocks move up in PRICE, it usually comes back down to TEST the 21 EMA as SUPPORT.
Which WE HAVE NOT YET SEEN a test of SUPPORT on 21 EMA since we went PARABOLIC. This adds to evidence of WEAK Market Structure.
If & When we TEST IT, we bounce off, thats healthy and sustains the BULL RUN, but IF we breakdown confirming as RESISTANCE, WE can test the GREEN Moving Average, the 50 D Moving Average as SUPPORT.
NOTICE: SUPPORT CONVERGENCE of the 21 EMA, BLACK TREND LINE and the 0.5 FIB level. This area could be an AREA we can have a potential bounce from. When many support zones meet, it becomes a powerful support level.
Also NOTICE: BLACK TREND LINE meets at 0.618 FIB level
EMA will also continue upwards, provided price stays above the EMA.
If all FIB LEVELS FAIL, which is always possible but for now not as PROBABLE, LOOK to the MAJOR SUPPORT RED HORIZONTAL LINE as our life line.
This could be our base for sideway or range bound action. Keeping that to the back of your mind can give you perspective of the possibilities of where PRICE can go.
But lets take it ONE STEP AT A TIME.
Now lets look to the RSI, Notice how we've been hanging around at the OVERBOUGHT ZONE since early JUNE. Longer we stay up it becomes more likely we come down, once we do it indicates SELL OFF. One pattern i like to use is watching how the ORANGE RSI LINE interacts with the Moving Average i added to my RSI. If we CROSS below the Moving Average, it usually indicates that we have SELLING and a DOWN TREND. Notice the PREVIOUS EXAMPLES 'ive highlighted.
Now Notice the STOCH RSI. We are getting close to a BEARISH CROSS below the 80 level, indicating BEAR MOMENTUM and SELL OFF. Also focus in on the BLACK HORIZONTAL LINE, watch for any bounces back up. This could give way to BULLISH Momentum coming back into CVNA.
CONCLUSION:
Cavana has had an explosive run, where in my opinion it is not sustainable for the time being. Especially so that we've hit a MAJOR RESISTANCE ZONE. A pullback is inevitable. Ive highlighted some ZONES and Support convergences that, in my opinion can be areas of POTENTIAL BOUNCES and BUY ZONES to observe. When thinking about price dropping, its important to look at it ONE STEP AT A TIME. Example -> Look to the 0.786 FIB level first, if we close & CONFIRM below, look to the next TREND line or FIB level or other ZONES highlighted above and be level headed. This is ABSOLUTELY NOT A TIME TO BUY in my opinion. Alot of signs show overbought conditions especially in the RSI and STOCH RSI. Wait and observe to see what happens for the next 3 day candle close.
Hope this helped. Please support my ideas and my effort by boosting, following and commenting! Thank you for taking the time to view of work.
Any questions, reach out.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. When trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
$CVNA-Regular Divergence Indicates Potential Bearish OpportunityCarvana ( NYSE:CVNA ), the innovative online used car retailer, has recently shown signs of a regular bearish divergence on its chart, indicating a potential reversal in its current trend. With an identified entry, stop loss, and take profit points, we could be looking at a shorting opportunity here.
Technical Indicators:
The regular bearish divergence, circled in yellow on the chart, suggests a weakening in the current uptrend. This pattern is often a sign of a potential upcoming bearish phase, making it an opportunity for short sellers.
Trade Setup:
Here's a potential trading setup based on the current technical indicators:
- Entry Price: 12.56
- Stop Loss: 13.70
- Take Profit 1: 10.77
- Take Profit 2: 9.13
This setup offers a good risk to reward ratio. The stop loss is set above the recent swing high, limiting potential losses if the price unexpectedly rises. The two take profit points allow for managing the trade more efficiently, taking some profit at the first target and letting the rest run if the price continues to move favorably.
Options Play:
For those interested in options, a Put option expiring on May 19th with a strike price of $10 could be a potential play. This would gain value if NYSE:CVNA stock price decreases, aligning with the bearish divergence.
NYSE:CVNA current technical setup suggests a potential bearish opportunity. However, as always, it's essential to manage risk effectively and ensure the trade aligns with your overall trading strategy.
*Note: This analysis is for informational purposes only. Always do your own research and consult with a professional advisor before making investment decisions.*