COPPER High probability buy signal on the 1D MA50.Copper (HG1!) is about to hit its 1D MA50 for the first time in a month (since September 16), following a 1D Golden Cross. Coming off a Higher High rejection within a short-term Bullish Megaphone, if the 1D MA50 holds, it is technically the perfect buy entry.
This Bullish Megaphone is essentially the Bullish Leg of the 2-year Channel Up. The symmetrical Bullish Megaphone of September 27 2022 - January 18 2023 peaked on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result, our Target is 4.900.
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Coppersignals
COPPER Rejected on the 1D MA50. Will it rebound or break lower?Copper (HG1!) got rejected yesterday on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since early July. This is a clear Bearish Leg on a potential Channel Up pattern, so technically, it may form a bottom on its Higher Lows trend-line and rebound.
If it does, our Target will be the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 4.900 as on the January 17 2023 rebound. If on the other hand the price breaks below 3.800 and the Higher Lows (dotted) trend-line, we will take the loss on the buy and sell, targeting 3.3500 (top of 2 year Support Zone).
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COPPER signaling the start of rate cuts? Potential danger ahead.Copper (HG1!) completed two straight red months following May's High at the top of the 3-year Rising Wedge pattern. Last time the commodity formed this pattern was back from May 2006 to September 2008. In fact the recent May 2024 Higher High resembles that of May 2008, whose rejection broke the Rising Wedge downwards.
As you can see, during both patterns, the US10Y (orange trend-line) stopped rising and turned sideways on Lower Highs, while the U.S. Interest Rate had peaked and started falling.
What 2006 - 2008 suggests, is that possible rate cuts may be ahead of us, pragmatically the markets have already priced this to a large percentage in September. But at the same time, it highlights the danger of a market-wide collapse, as the first month after the September 2007 rate cut, the stock markets peaked and the U.S. Housing Crisis begun.
What could be different this time and avert a new financial crisis of such proportions is that the stock markets haven't shown any signs of correcting yet. As a result, potential rate cuts may have a mostly positive bullish continuation effect as post July 2019.
What do you think will happen next? Bullish continuation or new Bear Market?
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COPPER Going well according to our long-term plan.Last time we looked at Copper (HG1!), we established our long-term strategy (April 19, see chart below), which involves a new Bull Cycle, through a Channel Up pattern similar to 2020 - 2021:
So far the plan goes flawlessly, as the price hit the top of the (green) Channel Up and is now pulling back. The 1W MA50 is about to complete a Golden Cross with the 1W MA200, the first one since January 11 2021!
On the shorter term (current chart on 1D) the price is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the short-term Support but as with last time, we expect it to marginally break before Copper bottoms and makes a new Higher Low on the long-term Channel Up.
To those who missed an early buy, we recommend entering once the 1D RSI hits its Support Zone. Our medium-term Target is 5.200 (Resistance 1).
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