Short term #yield is higher. Long term has turned & are catching a bid. At the moment it doesn't look like they're going down any time soon & that is not good longer term. Was speaking with loan officer yesterday & they believe they must lower before election. But, what if it goes higher before it goes lower? TVC:TNX
ECONOMICS:JPINTR -0.1% November/2023 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in a final meeting of the year by unanimous vote, as widely expected. The central bank also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the long-term government bond yield. The board said that it...
Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024? Expectations point to the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming decision slated for May 1. However, fixed income markets suggest the possibility of rate cuts surfacing in either the July or September meetings of the FOMC. Nonetheless,...
Commercial real estate "..talk of black swans of an economic nature forcing the Fed to print trillions again. Commercial real estate may be the next domino to fall. Back in 2008, default rates rose to 9%, up from 1%, as interest rates rose. Today, the damage to commercial real estate loans which total about $2.7 trillion could be far greater. Over 40% of the US...
Yen weakness despite... BoJ Exited negative rates regime Increasing geopolitical uncertainty Gold at historic highs of 2430 In 2022 and 2023, when the USDJPY approached the 152 price level, open/discreet intervention was in place to strengthen the Japanese Yen. However, in 2024, the USDJPY has now surged past the 152 resistance level, with the Japanese...
The European Central Bank raised Interest Rates by a Quarter of a percentage point Thursday, judging that Inflation remains too High ; even as data points to a deepening economic downturn in the 20 countries that use the euro. The move takes the benchmark rate in the euro area to 3.75%, the highest since October 2000.
Hey everyone!! Here I talk about USDCHF and give a little update on my Trade Idea "Last Leg To The Finish Line" Since it went over so well and continuing to follow suit, I wanted to do a Video Update on the idea to give a little insight on what I was seeing as the pair unfolded for the year and what I'm looking for in the near future!! Please let me know what...
Periods of high #interestrates, low #unemployment, high #inflation, and an inverted 10/2 #yieldcurve since 1976. What do you notice? An increased probability of a stock market recession and high unemployment within months of cutting interest rates and a reverted yield curve?
Goldman Sachs, one of the very few giant financial services companies left, is intending to do the first mega buyback program that will exceed One TRILLION dollars into 2025. Gasp. So the chart shows the initial buybacks commencing and the support of its stock price during the very dicey sideways trend. The company reports earnings Monday, April 15. Enough...
What a difference 11 hours makes. The 1 & 2 Yr #Yield are STILL under resistance & are weakening. 10 & 30 Yr completely reversed once markets opened. But this tends to be normal, pretty frequent. This is why waiting for a CLOSE is of utmost importance. IF we CLOSE here, last night's thinking is NO MORE and the best plan of action is to WAIT. TVC:TNX
Let's keep looking at #InterestRates. Gives us an idea of what the Fed may do. The 1 & 2 Year are still under their RESISTANCE level. Struggling a bit, but not breaking down. Trend is still there, weak though. 10 Yr looks like it wants to break the resistance zone. 30 YR looks like it's gone. Does not look like it wants to retrace at the moment. #FederalReserve TVC:TNX
Both ISM Manufacturing Index and Non-Manufacturing Index vs. GDP YoY% for the US economy. ISM Manufacturing: Yellow ISM Non-Manufacturing: Blue GDP YoY%: Green/Red ISM Manufacturing currently signaling contraction with a level below 50 and the momentum seems lower. Non-Manufacturing Index is likely to follow the same path although currently signaling growth,...
Interesting what one day can do for a chart! The trend is still up but #interestrates look fairly weak today. The 1 & 2 year are not so bad but the 10 & 30 year look weaker. TVC:TNX US #Dollar still looks okay though, at least for now. TVC:DXY
Let's look at rates for a bit. Short term #yield is slowly climbing the trend line. 1 & 2 Year. Longer term #interestrates look similar to the short term. 10 & 30 Year. US #Dollar not as strong as bond yields but it is trading similar to them. TVC:TNX TVC:DXY
I'm looking for the FED to stick with the dovish sentiment and for EURUSD to grab liquidity above us, if we get some new hawkish FED news/numbers we will most likely head down and sweep liquidity around 107.9 and lower
The inflation rate in the United Kingdom remained stable at 6.7% in September 2023, holding at August's 18-month low and defying market expectations of a slight decrease to 6.6%. Softer price increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages (12.1% vs 13.6% in August) and furniture and household goods (3.7% vs 5.1%) were offset by a smaller decline in energy costs...
Yesterday, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) released its decision to end eight years of negative interest rates, adjusting the short-term policy rate to around 0.00% to 0.10%. Although an interest rate hike is supposed to lead to the currency strengthening, the Yen weakened following the release of the news, with the USDJPY climbing higher from 149.40 toward the...
Market Surprise? June Rate Cut Might Be Delayed After today’s BOJ and RBA interest rate decisions, eyes will turn to the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. Although the US central bank is expected to keep rates unchanged, it could change its outlook due to the upside surprise in the latest CPI and PPI reports. For now, the first cut is still seen happening in...