Inflation has come down down, FED is planning to begin cutting rates this year. Interest rates are the highest in the US of any developed country. Long term bonds especially are a good investment here. EDV and TLT both track them and are currently paying a good yield too. I expect these to double from current prices over the decade. The next time things break and...
We've been expecting #InterestRates to be cut. Here's the counter argument to that... Economy not slowing down. Bigs are getting bigger. Labor market is tight. People are working 2 to 3 jobs. Expected payroll raises in the near future. Expected increase in prices by businesses. Rent and housing prices are still rising, for the most part. Oil is trending higher....
This video highlights interest rates dropping prior to Fed Meeting prior to March 2024 Meeting. Indicating a Strong correlation for Technical analysis over Market Media.
In this video, I'm overcoming a sinus infection. However, I am explaining the movement come March 24 the Federal Interest Rate. Concluding, that the interest rate will drop during the Fed Meeting.
Is the FED's caution on inflation justified? Absolutely! Here is why, secondary inflation spikes are very common when an economy does not enter a recession. The FED knows that. Hence their apprehension moving too fast to lower rates. I think it is a mistake for people to believe inflation is over, running around with a major hard-on to lower rates. On the other...
Good Morning Update Looking at the short & long term Bond Yields. Short term (3M & 6M) yields are trading above bank crisis levels. The 1Yr & 2Yr #yield are underneath the crisis levels. The 10Yr is currently at those levels & 30Yr is above said levels. Makes one think....... How much longer can #banks support these levels? CRYPTOCAP:BTC AMEX:GLD ...
Wednesday we had inventory reports that showed an increase in US oil production combined with the feds hawkish interest rate sentiment which sent prices deep into discount. OPEC did announce they will be cutting oil production while US supply did increase apparently, US production has slowed down the last 18months. I believe next week this will start to reflect in...
Good Morning! Let's get it done! Look at #yield for 1yr - 30Yr. What do you see? Last week we said they looked 2b bottoming out a bit. Do any of these look weak to you? RSI above halfway point, solidifying the possible bottoming process. Short term #Interestrates keep testing the top part of the white line. The more something is tested the weaker it becomes and...
Short Meltdown Incoming!!! Entry positioned in London High, which turns out to be NY session Fibonacci point, also alligns with classic Fib retracement Golden zone. Stop loss above daily high. Profit target from 2020s and lower. From my fundamental part of analysis, my take is that Fed won't cut the rates and that press conference as Fed statement might be very...
January 31st DXY: (Fed Decision) Stay below 103.80 could trade down to 102.70 support. NZDUSD: Buy 0.6150 SL 15 TP 40 (DXY weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.6585 SL 15 TP 60 (DXY strength) USDJPY: Sell 147.10 SL 30 TP 200 (Hesitation at 146.45) GBPUSD: Buy 1.2715 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY weakness) EURUSD: Sell 1.0790 SL 15 TP 45 (2nd setup) Sell 1.0730 SL 20 TP 70 USDCHF:...
Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow? Mostly yes. Market consensus leans towards the U.S. central bank maintaining current interest rates following the conclusion of its two-day meeting tomorrow. However, the potential impact on the U.S. dollar and gold is likely to hinge on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding expectations for a rate...
26 January 2024, 17:04 •EUR/USD rises in North American trading, buoyed by softer US core PCE inflation data. •Fed's core PCE index fall to 2.9% raises hopes for interest rate cut, aiding EUR/USD's climb. •Mixed European signals: German consumer confidence falls, Spanish unemployment at 16-year low, ahead of Fed decision. The EUR/USD gained some 0.14% in early...
History of prior EU Rate pauses: 4 months | Oct 00 - Apr 01 12 months | Jun 07 - Jun 08 3 months | Jul - Oct 2011 4 months | Sept 2023 - Present ⏳SO FAR⏳ At least they could say that this is not the shortest one ever now that we are into month 4. Historical Average: 6 months (March 2024) Interestingly this is when the Bank Term Funding Program in...
Here is a long term view of long term US Gov't interest rates. Long term is defined as 30 years and is a common bond owned by pension funds and insurance companies and other long term investors with long term obligations. I highlight the various ranges of interest rates as shown in these 4 boxes and the few moves that temporarily moved interest rates outside...
The Giant Banks and Credit Card companies benefit the most from the Federal Reserve Board's overnight interest rate hikes. As the FRB increases its lending rate, it allows big banks and credit companies to increase their interest rates to consumers, small businesses, etc. That usually means higher revenues. NYSE:V is in a sideways trend that is not as...
This is comparing between the super trend of the S&P 500 (Cash) index and the US 10 year bond yields. Previously, for a good 35 years, bond yields and equities shared a strong positive correlation. (1951 to 1986) Then correlation swung the other way and for the next 37 years, we started seeing negative correlation. Falling yields with equities continuing the...
Since the "outside" day. The DJ:DJI index has flip flopped above and below the top part of the outside day line. It wants to push higher but when NASDAQ:NDX craters, like it's doing today, it's a lil tough. Since we're doing intraday charts, let's do DJ:DJI as well. What's the biggest thing that sticks out to you on the last chart? Hint: Look at the...
HAPPY NEW YEAR! 🎉 US Treasury markets are more than the combined bond markets of Germany, Japan, China, UK, France, and Italy = HUGE. This is why US #Bond market is important to keep track of. Short term #interestrates has been the weakest in a LONG TIME 1Yr & 2Yr charts look similar. US Debt 2ys & less have been weakening & look like they still want to...