Last week was busy for major central banks. During a 60-hour window, rates were set for 60% of the global economy, from the US Fed, the ECB, to the BoE. Central banks’ announcements caused a frenzy in markets. The pivot to a dovish stance by the US Fed contrasted sharply with hawkishness from the ECB. This paper summarizes rate announcements and their market...
Dear Traders, I would like to offer my perspective on the major economic drivers for USD and GBP. Like the famous investor John Bogle says, "The market may be crazy, but it's not entirely insane. Fundamentals matter." This analysis compares key economic indicators of both countries in order to explore potential impacts on the GBP/USD currency pair in the long...
As the clock ticks towards 13:30 GMT, financial markets are bracing for the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for November, a pivotal metric that provides a snapshot of the current state of the United States economy. The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and...
The market's attention will be fixed on the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of 2023 scheduled for this Wednesday, with the expectation that the US will maintain interest rates at a 22-year high. Investors will have an opportunity to scrutinize the Fed's statement and Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for any indications of potential rate cuts in 2024...
There is some reasons that I think Nasdaq is going to experience a fall in near future: 1) The federal reserve still wants to keep interest rates higher for longer. 2) These prices for stocks it means the market think the fed is going to decline interest rates for 1.25% in December 2024! 3) Retail investors buy 7 billion Dollar of stocks, but Banks just buy...
- The People’s Bank of China on Tuesday trimmed its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 basis points from 3.65% to 3.55%, and reduced the five-year rate by the same margin to 4.2%. The cuts follow reductions in other interest rates last week. The LPR sets the interest that commercial banks charge their best clients, and serves as the benchmark for household and...
DXY have to breaks the 104.350 to secure its trend, unless it will drops to the first resistance area which is 103. So, wait till DXY show you its trend.
THOSE LONG TERM TRENDS ARE IMPORTANT. Remember how the 10 & 30 Yr #yield BROKE daily trends? Well, they are both still in play, for TVC:TNX it is in better shape. Let's see how they close. 30 Yr struggling a bit more to recover that close under the trend. #mortgage rates have also fallen decently.
Have you ever encountered the notion that less can be more? Well, that's precisely why it has taken me considerable time to present this update concept regarding Bond Yields. This analysis carries profound implications for every global market. What we're witnessing here holds the potential to trigger the most significant economic downturn in our lifetime—the...
IWN on the reliable daily chart has been trending down for two in a descending channel as shown on the chart with upper and lower trendlines drawn with the tool. The Stochastic RSI oscillates in the interval between oversold and over bought and presently is well overbought at nearly 100. While the RSI may double top like it did in July, it is at least...
Bitcoin climbs as SEC speeds up spot bitcoin ETF review process: Bitcoin (BTC) continued to grind higher this week, reaching a new yearly high of over $38.5k, as market participants continued accumulating BTC ahead of the potential ETF approvals at the start of next year. The SEC announced it would open the comment period for its review of applications...
FX:EURUSD has been navigating sideways since January amid economic challenges, rising interest rates, and Western economic uncertainties. Approaching yearly resistance at 1.10806, a rebound towards 1.05335 support is expected. By the end of the first financial quarter, a breakthrough of yearly resistance is anticipated, solidifying new support. This...
It's that time of year when forecasters get to work and calculate the necessary assumptions to plug into their models to offer year-ahead forecasts. In theory, strategists loath making such calls, but in the investment arena expected returns are important for asset allocation, so economics teams work closely together with FX, bond, and equity teams to make calls...
The foreign exchange market, a dynamic arena where currencies engage in a perpetual dance, is currently witnessing notable shifts in the EUR/USD pair. This analysis delves into the intricate interplay of both fundamental and technical factors influencing the Euro against the US Dollar. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to monetary...
Overnight, Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets with his comments that "the bigger mistake remains not getting rates high enough" and that "the US economy has been stronger than expected". These hawkish comments spurred market anticipation that the Fed is not done with the current rate hike cycle, lead to a sharp increase in the DXY. The DXY broke out of...
Dear Ztraders, A decline in the price of gold due to hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary can be understood through the relationship between interest rates, inflation expectations, and the opportunity cost of holding gold. Interest Rates and Opportunity Cost: Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset. When interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of holding...
The AUDUSD fell from the 0.6480 level following the RBA's decision to hike rates by 25bps on Tuesday. The retracement failed to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, forming a head and shoulders pattern on the AUDUSD. Anticipating recovery in strength on the DXY, look for the AUDUSD to break below the neckline at 0.6415 to signal further downside,...
1st November 2023 DXY: consolidate along 106.70, above 106.90 FOMC decision push to 107.35 NZDUSD: Sell 0.5860 SL 20 TP 60 (dxy weakness) AUDUSD: Sell 0.63 SL 20 TP 60 (dxy strength) USDJPY: Buy 151.55 SL 20 TP 60 (watch out for possible intervention) GBPUSD: Sell 1.2130 SL 25 TP 60 (dxy strength) EURUSD: Sell 1.0545 SL 30 TP 90 (dxy strength) USDCHF: Sell...