USDJPY- STILL DOWN LIKE WE PREVIOUS ANALIZED
The USD/JPY currency pair has seen significant movements recently, with several factors influencing its expected performance next week:
Current Position and Recent Movements: As of December 14, 2023, USD/JPY stood at 141.986, indicating a decrease of 2.28%. The currency hit a high of 145.995 and a low of 141.832 during this period. Over a broader 52-week range, the pair fluctuated between 127.221 and 151.924, with a year-to-date change of 8.29% and a one-year change of 4.73%.
Influence of Bank of Japan's Policies: Recently, signals from the Bank of Japan about an imminent shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy have strongly influenced the Japanese yen's strengthening against other major currencies, particularly against the dollar. This caused the USD/JPY pair to fall to the support level of 141.63 before recovering. Therefore, the future of the pair largely depends on the central banks' policies, especially from Japan, where markets have long awaited a shift in negative interest policy.
Expectations from the U.S. Central Bank: This week, the focus will be on the U.S. Central Bank's policy announcement, with strong expectations to maintain U.S. interest rates, but there will be attention on the bank's policy statement and expectations report. Monitoring of new expectations for U.S. interest rate levels at the Federal Reserve is ongoing.
Technical Analysis: Technically, the USD/JPY has formed lower highs connected to a trend line that has held since mid-November. It appears ready to test this resistance level again. The Fibonacci retracement tool indicates levels where sellers may be waiting to jump on the downtrend. The 61.8% Fibonacci level nearest to the trend line is around the key psychological mark of 146.00, which might be sufficient to keep gains in check. Hence, the USD/JPY may resume its decline to its lowest level at 141.62. However, a breakout above the Fibonacci levels and trend line could trigger a reversal to the upside. Additionally, technical indicators suggest a continuation of the downward trend, with the 100 SMA below the 200 SMA, confirming a shift downward in the trend or that a sell-off is more likely to gain momentum rather than reverse.
In summary, the future performance of USD/JPY will depend on key factors including the central banks' policies of Japan and the United States, as well as technical signals that currently indicate a potential continuation of the downward trend. The chart reflects this with the price recently testing a key support level and showing a potential for continuation of the downward trend as indicated by the trend lines and recent price action.
A video of my trade made it yesterday at USDJPY
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Like i analyzed before go look my past analysis:
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Osos
GBPJPY - SAME AS USDJPY GOING DOWN - KEEP SELLING From my viewpoint, the GBP/JPY pair has recently exhibited a notable bearish trend, reaching an eight-week low which suggests additional caution in the short term. Monitoring key support levels like the 185.63 area and the psychological level of 185.00 is crucial for planning trading strategies. I am watching for a potential technical shift towards a more pronounced bearish trend, especially if the pair closes below 181.80, which could reinforce the bearish outlook.
Furthermore, economic news and political events from Britain and Japan could impact the GBP/JPY pair, so I am closely following upcoming announcements from the Bank of Japan and key economic indicators from the UK. Any signs of a shift in monetary policy or unexpected economic data could act as catalysts for increased volatility. I maintain a balanced approach, combining technical analysis with fundamental developments to form a comprehensive market view and be prepared to adjust my positions according to market fluctuations.
SEE MY ANALYSIS ON THE CHART:
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40 PIPS RUNNING DOWN PROFITS ON THI ONE:
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DXY - SHORT-SELL - VENTAAnte el contexto economico internacional de la guerra comercial entre otros aspectos como los tipos de interes negativos en los bonos soberanos es inminente la caida del Indice del Dolar.
--> Tocando niveles claves de los Retrocesos de Fibonacci
--> Divergencia en RSI asi como en MACD