SNOW Options Puts Update - SNOW Approaching $150 TargetSNOW is approaching my price target and there has been a slight rebound. I think there could be more dips into the light blue trendline over the next few days within the next 1-2 weeks. I would look to close out the options puts trade here and would look for a buying opportunity. The price targets on the way up are $178 and $229.
Snowflakeipo
SNOW Continues its Meltdown Towards $149-150SNOW has been playing out very well, I thought there would be some bounces along the way, but it has been a lot of downside with little bounces. I'm patiently waiting for $149-150. I wouldn't be surprised to see a move down to the yellow trendline at $142.20 either, we'll track and see how SNOW is doing over the next few weeks.
SNOW Melts With a 20% Decline After Q4 Earnings (Options Puts)Options Puts Trade
This is an options puts trade setup above $229.26 resistance. SNOW has already reached the first price target, I can see SNOW dropping down to around $152 - $153 over the next few weeks.
SNOW Declines by 20%+ After Q4 Earnings
Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:SNOW) concluded its fiscal year 2023 on a high note, surpassing earnings expectations with a reported EPS of $0.35 against an anticipated $0.17. Despite this achievement, the company faced a significant stock price drop of 19.47% following the announcement, highlighting market sensitivities to leadership transitions and forward guidance. This analysis explores the strengths and challenges highlighted in Snowflake's Q4 2023 earnings call, providing insight into its financial health and future prospects.
Financial Performance Overview
Strengths:
Earnings and Revenue Beat: Snowflake reported significant beats on both sales and earnings, with non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.35 on sales of $774.6 million, far exceeding analyst expectations.
Impressive Product Revenue Growth: FY '24 product revenue grew 38% year-over-year to reach $2.67 billion, showcasing strong demand for Snowflake's cloud data platform.
Robust Free Cash Flow: Non-GAAP adjusted free cash flow stood at $810 million, representing a 56% year-over-year growth, indicating efficient capital management and operational excellence.
Expansion of Global Footprint: The addition of 14 Global 2000 customers in the quarter and growth in international markets underscore Snowflake's expanding global reach and market penetration.
Challenges:
Market Reaction to CEO Transition: The announcement of Frank Slootman's retirement as CEO and the appointment of Sridhar Ramaswamy as his successor led to market unease, reflected in a sharp decline in stock price. Leadership transitions can be perceived as potential instability or strategic shifts, contributing to investor apprehension.
Underwhelming Forward Guidance: Despite outperforming in Q4, Snowflake's guidance for fiscal 2025 suggests a deceleration in growth, forecasting product revenue growth between 26% and 27% for Q1 and 22% for the full year. This indicates a normalization of growth rates from the hyper-growth experienced in recent years.
Increased Investment in AI Initiatives: The planned investment in AI initiatives, including approximately $50 million in GPU-related costs, represents a significant bet on future growth areas but also adds to the short-term expense burden without immediate revenue recognition.
Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook
Snowflake is positioning itself at the forefront of the generative AI revolution, with a clear focus on integrating AI capabilities into its cloud data platform. The leadership transition to Sridhar Ramaswamy, with his extensive background in driving Google's advertising product growth, signals Snowflake's ambition to lead in AI-driven data analytics.
Focus on AI and Data Strategy:
Snowflake's emphasis on AI and the necessity of a robust data strategy to support AI initiatives present a substantial growth opportunity. The company's efforts to make AI simple and secure through Snowflake's Cortex and other AI-related product launches are poised to address the burgeoning demand for AI applications.
Investment in Technology and Talent:
The company plans to add approximately 1,000 employees, inclusive of M&A, focusing on supporting its AI and product development initiatives. This investment in talent underscores Snowflake's commitment to innovation and maintaining its competitive edge.
Conclusion
Snowflake Inc.'s Q4 2023 earnings underscore its strong financial performance and strategic positioning for future growth. Despite facing challenges such as market reactions to its CEO transition and a forecasted deceleration in growth, Snowflake's focus on AI and data strategy, coupled with its global expansion and operational efficiency, positions it well for sustained success. Investors and stakeholders should monitor the company's execution of its AI initiatives and its ability to navigate the changing growth dynamics in the coming fiscal year.
3/13/22 SNOWSnowflake, Inc. ( NYSE:SNOW )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Market Capitalization: $55.263B
Current Price: $180.42
Breakdown price: $185.00
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $231.00-$193.25
Price Target: $51.20-$48.80 (3rd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 111-120d (3rd)
Contract of Interest: $SNOW 6/17/22 180p
Trade price as of publish date: $26.75/contract
SNOW price target after Disappointing Growth ForecastSnowflake is facing strong competition from Microsoft's Azure and Amazon's Web Services.
Snowflake expects product revenue for fiscal 2023 to grow between 65% and 67%, lower than 2022's 106%.
In Q4 SNOW posted total revenue of $383.8 million, beating analysts' average estimate of $372.6 million.
In 2021 they had 592Mil in revenue and negative earnings of 539Mil. The market cap was 81.075Bil yesterday.
SNOW Snowflake went public in September 2020 at $120 a share.
After the Disappointing Growth Forecast and a head and shoulders bearish chart pattern, my price target is $185!
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Snowflake Analysis 10.02.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
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Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
12/12/21 SNOWSnowflake, Inc. ( NYSE:SNOW )
Sector: Technology Services (Packaged Software)
Current Price: $371.24
Breakout price: $377.00
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $371.00-$358.50
Price Target: $400.00-404.00 (1st), $429.00-$433.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 49-53d (1st), 84-90d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $SNOW 2/18/22 375c, SNOW 3/18/22 400c
Trade price as of publish date: $29.40/contract, $28.00/contract
$SNOW Imminent EMA crossSNOW has been beaten down below IPO price and has completed a descending trend, looking to break out. A daily 8EMA to 21EMA crossover should indicate A bullish move towards some upside. Even if this move is just a corrective wave with more downside, the trend will push this to the .618 and decide what to do from there. Looking to add longs if it moves over 242.67 and holds that level. The move above should come quick too, using the VWAP from the highs as a magnet.
DDOG to 120?DDOG - Currently in a a flat correction and looking for a breakout of the triangle to retest ath. With earnings approaching (mid February) we could see a nice run up to retest ATH. This company has shown strong growth and has generated great returns since its IPO in 2019, nearly quadrupling it's IPO price in 2020. DDOG reported a 61% increase in revenue for Q3 and an outlook of a 62% increase in the year of 2020. Trading Plan annotated in the chart.
Options Ideas
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110 C 1/29 (High risk: High reward) day trade option
120C C 2/12 (Medium Risk: High Reward) High OI
BUY THE DIP | $SNOW LONGBUY THE DIP! Good morning traders, as we look at SNOW on larger timeframes we see a well-needed correction after this IPO made a push toward even more all-time highs. This week could be the last of being able to grab it around this price.
Looking at price action, there are a few things to consider starting with the retest of $301. $301 shows as a strong level first as resistance, now as support (if it holds). SNOW is a buy
DCJ | Happy Holidays
Should I Invest In Snowflake (SNOW)?Yesterday, Snowflake (SNOW) , one of the most anticipated IPOs in recent history, hit markets. With names like Berkshire Hathaway and Salesforce getting in on the IPO, should you be looking at SNOW as your next big investment?
Snowflake Inc. is a cloud-based data-warehousing startup that was founded in 2012, and yesterday they hit public markets. So what exactly does that mean?
What Is An Initial Public Offering (IPO)?
Well, an IPO, or Initial Public Offering, is a way for a company to raise capital in exchange for small pieces of their company called stock shares… and let’s just say that the SNOW IPO was a big one!
In fact, their IPO set a record for software companies and has been the biggest in the U.S. this year.
Originally their IPO price was supposed to be between $75-$85, but last week both Berkshire Hathaway and Salesforce committed to buying millions of shares.
Because of this, the price was then set to release between $100-$110. But when they finally started trading, it opened up at $249.99.
Within a matter of minutes it shot up as high as $318.01. That was over a 27% move within 3 minutes… crazy! That is what we call FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) in the trading world. And that’s what tends to happen with IPOs.
By the end of yesterday’s trading, Snowflake (SNOW) closed up on the day 3.64%.
How Did The Top IPOs Of 2019 Do?
Last year we had a few noteworthy IPOs like UBER, LYFT, CHWY and PINS. So let’s take a look how all of these different stocks performed out of the gate.
First, we’ll look at UBER. Much like Snowflake (SNOW), UBER had an explosive first day of trading. Then for about two months it basically moved sideways, until its first earnings report. From there, things got pretty ugly! In a matter of months the stock went from $43 to as low as $25.58.
Now let’s take a look at their competitor, LYFT. Very much like SNOW and UBER, it too had a very volatile first day of trading but nearly immediately started moving lower. LYFT IPO’d at $87.24 in March of 2019, and by October it found a temporary bottom at $37.07.
Starting to notice a pattern yet?
Well, let’s take a look at another IPO that was really hyped last year, Chewy (CHWY). Its first day of trading was also very volatile. It opened up at $36 on its first day of trading in June of last year. By November it finally found a temporary bottom, trading as low as $21.68.
A few other great examples from last year would be Pinterest and Slack. Both acted nearly identically to the other IPOs we just discussed.
Slack was hyped up as the “Skype Killer,” and although that may turn out to be true, their stock basically went straight lower from the start.
From what I’ve seen over the last few years, this has sort of been the MO of these ultra hyped IPOs.
Taking a look at iposcoop.com you can see all the recent IPOs, and as I’m sure you’ll see, there are plenty you’ve probably never heard of before.
Will I Be Investing or Trading Snowflake (SNOW)?
So after all that discussion, should you invest in Snowflake (SNOW)? Well, ultimately that is up to you. I’m a short term trader, so I like to hold things for as little as a day or two and typically no longer than a few weeks. So for me, I will not be investing in (or trading) Snowflake.
If you’ve followed me for any length time you’ve probably heard me say:
Trade What You SEE, Not What You Think.
And for me, I don’t SEE a trade setup. Could SNOW break the mold for over-hyped IPOs and go higher with out a sharp move lower…of course! But that’s not how I approach the markets.
I stick with SRC Profits:
– Systematic
– Repeatable
– Consistent
If you invested in SNOW, I would love to hear about it in the comments.
I hope this was helpful!