... for a 1.55 credit. Comments: Probably the last addition to my TLT short put ladder for now. Selling the 83's, targeting a break even that is coincident with the 52-week low. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point ... with the additional notion being that I won't have to hang out in it nearly as long as the DTE suggests when they do. ...
TLT has been in a broadening wedge and formed a falling wedge within the larger pattern. Price bounced off the lower supoort trendline in the mid-morning of trading then rising to break out of the falling wedge. I see this as an opportunity to take a long trade in TLT and close out a TBT position at the same time. This reversal may be due to the value...
TMF on the 4H chart is set up at the bottom descending support trendline of a symmetrical triangle in the approach to the apex. Price appears ready to reach for the upper descending resistance trend line and the Echo Indicator ( Lux Algo ) makes that forecast. Current ambiguities in a rate cut soon upcoming will make values of Treasuries a complicated...
... for a 1.19 credit. Comments: Laddering out at intervals ... . Targeting the strike that would result in a break even around the 52-week low on weakness here. A basic bet that the Fed cuts rates ... at some point. I already have rungs on in July through Nov, so adding one here in Dec. This is complimentary to the covered calls I have on In January (See...
Comments: Doing something long-dated here in 20 year+ paper to get in at a cost basis that is coincident with a 10 year yield at 4.10%. Metrics: Buying Power Effect/Cost Basis: 91.40/contract Max Profit: 8.60 ($860)/contract ROC at Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 9.41% (Excluding Dividends) ROC at 50% Max as a Function of Buying Power Effect: 4.70%...
... for a .55 credit. Comments: With the June 86 at greater than 50% max, rolled it down and out to the November 15th 83 for a .55 credit (where I currently don't have a "rung" on). I collected .93 for the June 86; with the .55 here, I've collected a total of 1.18. Primarily looking to reduce a smidge of risk in this position, since my highest strike is at the 86.
... for a 1.08 credit. Comments: Laddering out on weakness, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit at or below the cost basis of the shares I've currently got.
... for a .98 credit. Comments: Laddering out at intervals at strikes between 85 and 82, assuming they're paying. This is naturally longer-dated than most will want to go, but is part of a TLT position made up of covered calls (stock + short call) and short puts, so that I'm getting paid for (a) short call premium; (b) dividends; and (c) short put premium over...
The IEF (US 7-10 year Treasury ETF), has held on to the 0.382 Fibonacci Retrace aligning with a Long-term and Established Trend line and the 200-Month Simple Moving Average with high amounts of MACD Bullish Divergence and a move above the 0 line on the Oscillators. All of these factors point towards lower yields in the 7-10 Year Treasuries and an increase in par...
... for a 1.10 credit. Comments: Although I have a long-dated covered call on in TLT, starting to ladder out some short put at intervals that would result in an improvement of my cost basis in the covered call were I to be assigned shares. Targeting the strike that's paying around 1% of the strike price in credit.
can keep sl at 78 , inspired by a chart post I saw somewhere I love these the of set ups , catch a falling knife and put in in your socket and save it for a rainy day
There is a Bearish Harami at the HOP level of a Bearish Bat with Impulsive RSI BAMM Confirmation. Alongside that, we also have 2 Major Squareups significantly below the current level and also an unfilled gap. If these Bearish Signals at the highs are to play along, this should be the start of an even greater retrace to fill the downside gap and to complete the...
We made good money shorting NASDAQ:TLT into the summer down to the initial target I had of $88. Then we flipped long again and I exited my longs earlier this month on Dec 7th. Now, as you can see from the first chart , we've come up against resistance and I think it's time to flip short again to retest the lows. How low we go is TBD, but I think this move...
NASDAQ:TLT remains in a strong bearish trend. After breaking through the 93 zone, the bond price rose. It has not been able to break the first resistance found in the 103.70 zone, and it has another more important resistance in the 110 level. At the moment I am not going to buy long-term american bonds, and I am still invested in monetary asset investment...
The collapse in Treasury bonds in 2021-2023 now ranked among the worst market crashes in history. Since March 2020 to 2023 fall, Treasury long term bonds with maturities of 10 years or more have plummeted over 40% while the 30-year bond had plunged over 50%. That's just under losses seen in the stock market when the dot-com bubble burst. The bond rout was worse...
Some weeks ago TLT was trading within a Falling Wedge and Double Bottoming at the 0.382 with Bullish Divergence on the Hourly Timeframe and from there rallied to hit its 0.618 Profit Target. Since then, it has come back down just below the level it started at but in doing so has yet again formed Bullish Divergence near the 0.382, this time on higher timeframes. If...
... for a 1.08 credit. Comments: Targeting the 52-week low here with a rung out in September (I've already got rungs on in April, May, June, etc.), which I think is unlikely to be touched in light of talk about the Fed cutting rates ... at some point in time. Naturally, if I'm wrong, I'm also fine with picking up shares at a cost basis below the covered call...
Here on a daily chart the ratio of the Bearish Leveraged Financial ETF to its Bullish counterpart is showing to be in a descending parallel channel. The chart is marked with comments about trading considerations of these ratios at a given time. At present, the FAZ is undervalued and should be bought. On the other hand, Bullish FAS, should be either sold if...