USDARS
USDARS: Update - 2 weeks to define the trendThe USDARS pair has an interesting setup, on one hand, the uptrend that started after monetary policy changed, has failed to reach the target on time, suggesting a selloff was possible (which did in fact materialize).
I have reccomended my fellow countrymen to sell their dollars at the 15.8-15.4 mark, but it's time to pay attention to go long the dollar again, possibly, unless the downtrend is confirmed in 2 weeks or less.
If you have peso savings, wait fo a good chance to convert them to dollars, if you're still in dollars and haven't sold, well, you should have paid more attention to my forecast #1, #2, don't panic, you might get a good opportunity to unload your dollars higher soon, or more reasons to hold them too.
For people actually trading this pair electronically, I'd reccomend using ATR based stops, and/or no leverage, since volatility can be quite extreme.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
USDARS: Argentinians, sell your dollars!We have a clear scenario, get out of dollars, get pesos, or get any of the assets in here except for gold and yen (or at least, get lesser amounts of these, since they have already gained a lot of strength).
Play catch up, play it smart.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Time at Mode FX.
USDARS: Target is 18.744We are at a very critical juncture in the market, and it's possible to see increased chances of a rally in oil and equities, and probably a dollar decline against emerging markets currencies, at least vs the yen, aussie and canadian.
Argentina's monetary policy might make the selling pressure persist though, and we might see this target hit in little time.
The consequences might be harsh, with price increases, and increased costs for employers, with improbable raises in the minimum wage, or at least not enough to accomodate basic expenses any middle class or lower family might have.
That being said, I will update this chart if I change my view, for now, this is the setup on chart, and what makes sense with my country's fundamentals. Energy costs increase, despite falling crude, add to it rising crude, and it's even worse, so let's see how it pans out.
This was a very rough adjustment, after years of holding a ceiling artificially, which did have its costs too.
Good luck, fellow Argentinians.
Ivan Labrie.
Merval: Projected pathwayThis is my current forecast for the Merval index. I'm looking at a new leg down, to retest the Vix spike retracement support level cluster below.
I propose a wide stop long off the level below, but we could also take a short term short as depicted on chart and unwind and flip long.
You can check my previous forecast in the related ideas below.
I'm republishing with the original projection so you can see how it fared. Not bad, huh?
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
