Wavea
Its A TRAP!!!The market should finish Intermediate Wave 4 today, possibly in the morning before we head down again to Groundhog Day. My models have the most agreement around 4436 for the top so that is my conservative top for now. Wave 5 still needs to take us below Intermediate Wave 3's bottom of 4222.62. Earliest guess is a bottom south of 4100 and relatively quick. I will readjust once wave 4 data is finalized.
Great news for most of February as it is rally time. But the rally will be short-lived. Earliest forecasts are gains around 11% off the bottom but this could change. We have one more major fall set for end of February and most of March. After that we will work back toward all-time highs.
Regarding the gap this morning is Fed-hype, maybe hoping the "jobs data" will delay the Fed's action. But reality will set in after the meeting that inflation is out of control, hence the drop to end this month. Then short-term memory will forget the last month as large company earnings trickle out in February which likely paints a semi-rosier picture than what we had from the inflation fears. Inflation is here to stay, the new prices we pay today WILL BE the lowest prices we pay from here on. Businesses will not slash prices once people are accustomed to paying them and the businesses are complacent with the profits.
USDJPY on an Impulse? Can go back to 109?!Sometimes Elliot Waves help to make some sort of forecasting looking back to what have happened. It clears out that 105 is strong level and due to some fundamental & tech specs we see impulse in USDJPY which can bring us back to 109 for retest and further ideas.
BTC Wave 5 completed, now going into consolidation?After my CORRECT previous analysis here:
It seems that the big push upwards, through the main trendline and completion of Wave 5 Impulse on the Minor period, seems to have been completed and price action may start a consolidation move sideways. TDI shows overbought position with the RSI just inside the outer band so I'm not expecting a sharkfin which would suggest a hard move downwards.
All EMAs are still upwards in trend and are not showing any cross potential at present, although I would expect the Mustard to cross with the Ketchup EMA during the consolidation/correction period. If the Ketchup and Mustard cross with the Water EMA, we could then expect a deeper correction as a secondary move, however I don't see that happening at the moment. Zone flip area which conveniently is exactly where Wave A is forecast to reverse for the Wave B which would confirm additional support.
In my opinion, the end of Wave A would be a good place to go LONG again on this pair (eg. Purchase Bitcoins) and continue to hold long-term for the next impulse wave move to $4,500 ~ $5,000 range, which I firmly believe it will reach, within the next few months, if not sooner.
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DISCLAIMER: This chart is for sharing and educational purposes only and is not intended to be a signal service or similar.
This chart analysis is only provided as my own opinion, based on my own analysis and comes with absolutely no warranty that this analysis is correct, whatsoever. Do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy at your own risk. Plan your trade and trade your plan... and IF in doubt, stay out.
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Feeder Cattle - The ideally bottom for wave A seen at 130.78In October 2014 I called the top almost to the cent (see the link below). The decline from 244.80 is finally coming to an end near 130.78.
Short term I'm looking for the final decline in red wave v of an ending diagonal and once the bottom is in place, a quick return to the origin of the ending diagonal at 169.58 should be seen, within half the time it took to build (that would amount to something like 3 months). That will however, likely be only the first part of wave B, as a continuation higher towards 187.80 and possibly even closer to 201.25 should be expected longer term.
The clear divergence seen from the RSI indicator does confirm that, we are approaching the end of wave A and wave B can start soon.
It's time to close the long term short position and shift towards a long position.
Just a final word. Remember that correction in the commodity complex often is extremely violent. Just look at Soybeans and Soybean Meal.