Huge Disconect Between Stocks and Junk BondsWhen we have seen a big disconnect between stocks and junk bonds it did not end well for stock. Watch out if the yield curve starts to steepen.by TheTradersBias0
Leading Indicator list shows more downside to be expected... Heads up... all supports and resistances are being broken. Very quick take... equities going down! other markets will follow suit accordingly.Shortby Auguraltrader0
JNK Bonds Cracking! Bad JUJU!First off this is an updated chart. Here is the original chart I posted here on TV back on Jan 5, 2022 I typically hate wedges. They have a tendency to break one way and then reverse the other. Having said that The fundamentals right now compel me to post this chart as bearish. People have this false idea in their heads that bond yields work like a light switch. On and off. meaning a higher rate for a short period of time is enough to blow everything up. That's nonsense. Not how it works when yields rise. However, let me clarify something, when rates fall the effects can be felt much quicker bc people are eager to run out and refi to upgrade a home or use it like an ATM or buy a home to lock in lower rates. When it comes to biz on the other hand they have to roll over debt they don't have a choice. So junk bonds are a completely different animal altogether. That means if this chart starts to break down and holds with something like 50% of bonds have to be rolled over in the next 5 years. Xombie companies will start to blow up, jobs will be lost, wages will be lost (obviously) consumption will fall and we will end up somewhere not very desirable. There is more but I won't get into it here. Just remember to keep an eye on this chart bc your job may depend on it. Forget about the trading aspect of it all.Shortby RealMacroUpdated 337
Junk Bonds Breaking Key AreaJunk Bonds have been artificially propped up by FED buying. As inflation roars and the FED is way behind the curve, this key area breaking is not what Zombie companies want to see. Markets are in trouble. As I have been warning for months now. CAUTION! Shortby RealMacroUpdated 228
JNK – High Yield Bond ETFOne of the more important charts out there. The JNK etf shows the investor sentiment based on the interest in high-yield debt. Considering the expectation for the number of defaults to increase, the fact this is not selling off and the spread looking bottom could possibly be a confirmation of the strength in equities. Will be interesting to see if JNK can sustains a rally to close out the year. High-yield spreads High-yield effective yield: by cmerged0
Good news for stocks, bonds are bottoming $JNKAMEX:JNK is an ETF that tracks rated high-yield bonds or "junk bonds". These are the bonds rated Ba1 & BB+ by Moody's Investors Service, Inc., & Fitch Inc. respectively. The bullish divergence with the ROC is pointing out that a bottom is near. Bonds bottoming is a good sign for the market and breakout to the upside should confirm a healthy uptrend for stocks. This ETF has a high correlation with the AMEX:SPY ; 0.7021 for the last 3 years, so, let's wait and see. Longby dpuleo191
Risk off Risk OnJunk bonds to US Treasury 7-10 year bonds, a good proxy for risk on/risk off appetite and a good parallel to SPY action. Right now, we are due a risk off pullback, but the longer trend (Gann trend line and Ichimoku cloud) indicate a risk on environment will be soon to follow. Longby UnknownUnicorn131010
Junk Early ReversalJunk is one of my favorite indicators for risk assets. If junk confirms this reversal we should see a rally in stocks and crypto. Very early days. A few more weeks should show a confirmation.by TheTradersBias0
JNK H&S measured move to 85?It looks like the bond market is making lower lows, and China HSI as well. These are usually leading indicators telling us that risk on assets will also make lower lows. But I believe the end is near, as you can see on the chart. This could also be a max pain fakeout as we are back testing the downtrend line. So starting to dollar cost average into some risk on assets and metal miners in the next few days/weeks is probably a good idea. Good luck guysby cicatraceUpdated 1
JNK rejects off resistanceJNK showed signs of breaking out this week but the long wick / shadow at the top of this weekly bar rejected off resistance an dumped the price back into the broadening descending wedge pattern.by MrAndroid0
Lower Bond Prices Ahead?This could either be an A-B-C wave with another major leg down coming, or an extension in the middle of a major wave down. Will be watching for topping signs around 94 with another major move down. Would expect stocks to follow along.Shortby AssetDesign0
Keep an eye on rates and short JNKRatio over 2 is the main reason we like the short here. Shortby Flightschool0
JNK: looking less junkyA big break above 90.07 today (RED) is a significant level in the S/R playbook. A close above 90.07 sets in motion a sustained move higher. Longby AspenTrading1
No recessionJNK/TLT explodes. In my opinion this only can be if no recession is seen in the near future. It could also mean: TLT falls extremly fast because FED and Japan/China sell US T-Bonds at the same time in amounts which the market cannot handle at all. The cracks in the system became obvious... by jupomm1
Junk Rally Stalls at ResistanceJunk rally has stalled at resistance on the NFP beat. See what it does in the week ahead. Looks bearish going forward.by TheTradersBias1
Junk Breaks Key SupportJNK has broken down as high yield rates rocket higher. This should lead stocks lower in the week ahead. Lets see.by TheTradersBias2
Positive Divergence in JNKCould be interpreted as a new risk-on sign into last quarter when FED probably stops hiking aggressivly. #midterms #seasonalityLongby swissyoungtraderUpdated 0
Nice Rally in JunkJNK has had a nice rally off support. See if it holds the momentum with the Fed in strong hawkish mode.by TheTradersBias1
Junk on key supportJNK is testing key support. A failure of this level will see stocks lower also. See what happens by the end of the week.by TheTradersBias1
Junk 50% retraceJunk has come back to 50% retrace key level. $USD is coming off a touch. Lets see what happens. Could go either way.by TheTradersBias1
Junk weekly over sold Junk weekly showing heavy downside momentum but possible red inside candle. The weekly stochastic is turning from over sold. Should see support here (at least short term) before you see it in stocks. Lets see.by TheTradersBias1
JNKTLT A bond ratio that could give a perspective on stocksThis is the ratio of High Yield Bond ETF to the 20Y T BOND. Not a ratio seen a lot but on the 1M time-frame it provides some perspective to the periods of high volatility/ correction on stocks. The blue trend-line is the Dow Jones (DJI) index (stocks). As you see, every time the JNKTLT ratio hit its Lower Highs trend-line, stocks have turned sideways at best, undergoing a volatility phase. Last month, the ratio closed above that line for the first time in history. Even though we are on a sharp correction since the start of the year, does that break-out mean that it enters a new bullish trend and completely different pattern? And if so, could it indicate that the correction is about to take a stop? What do you think? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------by TradingShot2212
Leading Indicators are very BearishThe JNK ETF is heading further down with a big bearish Marubozu that is the YTD low -> Bearish for equities. The IWM ETF is also heading further down for a lower low with a bearish Marubozu engulfing -> Bearish for equities The DJT ETF ended on a recent low too -> Bearish for equities The VALUG has a bearish candle for more downside -> Bearish for equities The TIPS ETF bearish marubozu ending on a YTD low-> Bearish for equities The TLT ETF is diving -> no flight to safety, just selling. The VIX is coiling -> bearish outlook for equities, more volatility incoming when it spikes! The HG1! copper futures ended on a strong low for the week, and will be attacking support. Expect failure. Overall, very Bearish bias on equities for the next couple of weeks, and at least until the VIX spikes very hard before retracing (it is only coiling now...)Shortby Auguraltrader1