Short term bonds are still trading below the bank fiasco crisis. 1 & 2YR Yields. However....... Long term #yield is higher than it was during the bank fiasco. 10 & 30 YR #Yield. Normalization of the curve is still a ways off.
Heavy selling observed across the S&P500: Financials & Real Estate hit hard. S&P500 hitting the 50 day MA...technical daily support. Some breakout sectors are seeing there first pullback in a bullish trend. The sectors that have had breakouts will likely see dip buyers. Health Care & Utilities are into some interesting support levels. This is where bulls...
Jobs data were the ones that moved the markets two weeks ago, while the previous week was marked with inflation data. The US inflation is quite persistent and moved higher to 3.5% in March, from 3.4% that the market was expecting. The overall market sentiment is that the Fed will stay reluctant to decrease interest rates during the course of this year, since the...
The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): The key development today is the formation of the first Golden Cross on the 1D time-frame in 9 months (since July 10 2023). This is a huge technical buy signal on its own and becomes even more so since...
US Government Bonds 10YR Yield X Right prices with more accuracy: 4.618% 4.714% 4.804% 4.944% New Support = 5.075$ Distribution = $5.263 Follow by 5.458% Market will take a small beak however expect the following prices as support confirmed during 2023 & 2022. 6.095% 6.350% 6.552%
Good Morning Everyone We finally see what we were expecting. That was the expectation for #Yields to pump higher. There was a NORMALIZATION of the yield curve taking place. However, the 2Yr has moved faster than 10Yr today. IF the #FederalReserve drops rates causing the normalization of the curve it could cause the end of this bull run. The best scenario would...
What would cause rates to move higher? Inflation 2.0? According to this long term yield chart were about to experience a paradigm shift in rates. If this Monthly Golden cross occurs we should see a bull market in rates continue into the future. This would not be a good sing for risk equites. The last time we got the opposite signal" Death cross" we saw a...
Bond Traders are positioning to the narrative of higher rates for longer from the Fed. 10 year bond yields continue to trend 📈 higher. Will be break the high of the year or pull back?
lets see how it goes. double top perhaps? 10Y TREASURY PREDICTION
Jobs data posted during the previous week surprised the markets in a negative way. It is sort of a paradox, considering that usually strong job market is good for the economy of any country. However, at the current situation, this strong jobs market sends a signal of a potential increase in inflation figures, which might impact the Fed's decision to cut interest...
Traders, as we navigate through the second and third quarters, understanding the potential movements of the US 10-year yield TVC:US10Y becomes increasingly crucial. Join me as we analyze the factors shaping the bond market and anticipate the trajectory of the 10-year yield in the coming months. I'm excited to share a comprehensive outlook, encompassing a...
US10Y: Bullish- Ascending triangle Ascending triangle detected on US10Y The exponential moving averages remain possible targets Monitor Ichimoku levels The ROC ( Rate of Change) is in a positif territory. Bonds can rise to a double top Stay careful Good trades to all
Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 6
From the ending of 2023, Yields have been trickling to the upside, regaining the losses made throughout the last quarter of Q4. With this weeks candle attacking buyside liquidity with a strong bullish closure, manipulation to the downside, ideally respecting the short term lows @ 4.183%. 4.532% lowest displacement of the order block is in the cards. My...
US Government Bond 10 YR Yield X Right Prices for April, 2024: 4.420% 4.428% 4.439% 4.457% 4.466% 4.467% 4.487% 4.493% 4.505%
Copper miners smelling more yield curve un-inversion... #copper #silver #gold #uranium #crudeoil
Yields are currently in EW 4th wave correction, this should bottom by the end of 2Q for a sharp rally back to new highs end of year. 2025 will be the year of bear with a crash in all risk assets. Likely bottom near the golden fib @~2.5%. Risk assets also should follow this path along hand in hand. So bullish stocks until EOY after a brief correction in 2Q.
I wam showing another (weekly t/f) version of the chart I published weeks ago on the driver for USD bs the Euro - yield spread between US10Y and German10Y. There is NOTHING bearish about this chart. Price (spread) breaking higher. Indicators as positive as you like. Dollar higher.