The US treasury market is becoming agitated at the latest Fed stance that rates may most likely remain unchanged through the 2Q2024 and 3Q2024 which has put upward pressure on the US treasury yields. US 10-year yields broke back above 4.50% last week and a continued sell-off will see yields spike back to 5.00% for as long as the current Fed narrative holds it...
1981 to 2020 - 39 years! the US10Y has been going down! In 2020 it's start reversing like crazy! What is going on!
1O YR yields may have topped and are retracing. Yields are rolling down ⤵️ TLT is up ticking 📈 as yields come down as expected 🧭
To be or not to be – the rate cut this year? The markets switched their expectations from March and May toward September, although currently not with high certainty. Recent data show still high resilience of the US economy on tight monetary policy. Retail sales in March were increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, which was a figure much higher from 0.3% expected by...
1O YR yields may have topped and are retracing to 4.4%. ⤵️ TLT which have an inverse relationship with the yields are reversing back up. 📈 Time to short 10 YR YIELDS and Long TLT? 🤔 🧭 👇
Released data for the US economy during the previous week could point to the stagflation moment in the US during the course of this year. Posted data for core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price index show that in March it increased by 2.8% on a yearly basis, from 2.6% expected by the markets. At the same time, the first estimate for the US GDP Growth Rate was...
10 year looks to be heading to 5 or 5.5 %. MACD and RSI showing upward trend on weekly still. Upward fib extension looks to retest previous high or beyond if Fed doesn’t lower rates anytime soon. Looking for CPI prints to see whether Inflation is going back up which may impact 10 year and I believe the market will continue down while 10 year heads upwards so I’m...
Introduction: I won't have many comments on the US 10-Year Treasury Bonds (US10Y) as the statements made by Chairman Powell could alter the chart. In my estimation, it seems unlikely that there will be further interest rate cuts for a while, which could have positive implications for the price of gold. Technical Analysis: The chart for US 10-Year Treasury Bonds...
US10Y possibly heading lower towards 4.30 after a huge spike all the way to 4.70
The 10-year yield is in a huge symmetrical triangle. Break out of it would trigger a massive move in rates. Rates are moving up due to the very hot inflation report. Let's see if will it be rejected or if this will be the end of the bull market for now!
US short term funding requirements (33% of existing debt to mature next year) + a clean unbroken trend seems to head the 10 yr yield to 5.2%. This view doesn't constitute investment advice.
Bonds are ready for a nice Short term rally be long TLT and do NOT be short stocks
Last weeks bullish projection played out as expected with the monthly OB and liquidity void being met by the end of this weeks trading. Trend is your friend and although it's not guaranteed we will continue to trend upwards, there's a higher probability that US10Y does rather than not on a weekly timeframe. This does not mean this weeks price action will reprice...
It's reasonably well appreciated that the biggest component of the dollar index DXY is the euro. Therefore when trying toanalyse the future direction of the Dollar one needs to consider what is happening to the spread between yields in the two main economic areas (US and Germany as a proxy). If we look at US10Y-DE10Y historically we can see, as might be expected,...
The early morning Asian sessions saw some peculiar moves with the USDJPY pair falling to a low of 154.56. There are rumors of possible FX intervention from BoJ to save their vulnerable Yen. Simultaneously, there was strong buying pressure for the US 10year which is pulling yields down aggressively. The US 10-year yield is showing signs of pulling back following...
My projection for this week was a bit late but nonetheless, bullish projections of lowest displacement fair value gap was the target and yields achieved it, topping out just before CE was met @ 4.696%. Shortly after, yields witnessed a sharp paintbrush retracement mid week and never closed out higher than the highs printed on Wednesday 17th April 2024. On...
Historically when Bonds and US Dollar DXY are down, then Commodities go up. Their inverse correlation is currently broken. Just something to monitor and warning that something is out of order which should be ringing alarm bells
I expect a rise around TLT 89.8 at 16.04. This means a pullback of 4.53 for US10Y.