The oil rally started by late October 2020 will face resistance soon by lockdown, seasonality and strengthening US dollar, however, the outlook for 2021 still bullish with 60$/bbl in eyesight, following the rally trend lines we can see 60$/bbl first half of Feb21.
a corrective retracement from 54.5$ range towards 51$+/-50c is most likely before it continue...
Postponement of OPEC+ JMMC, Saudi stepping Down from Co Charing the JMMC, UAE is projecting an independent policy from Saudi. Russia, Iraq and Nigeria is not willing to compensate for over production, along with a surprising report from API showing inventory build for crude, gasoline and distillates is adding to the bearish momentum. technically breaking through...
I am thinking the 100DMA around 41.5$ is an area of interest. with the initial disagreement between opec+ members, even if they sign on the cuts extension, there will be huge doubts on compliance, wait for exhaustion or reversal sign to short, with down tgts at 43.3, 41.5 and 40.
I can see that wave 5 in the chart is equal in length exactly on the January Future contract to W3, this is a common length for W5, W1 is shorter than both so it fulfils the conditions, breaking above 46.26 will signal upward continuation up to 47.9 which is 262% Fib ret of W4 and we will have an extended W5, also this level will see huge resistance because Brent...
