AlexPrather

AlexPrather

EDIT: Bitcoin went under the 2177 level, I am bearish for the time being unless it can reclaim 2200 with volume. We might be headed for a FOURTH test of the bottom trendline, but that might make this a weak flag in my book. Regardless, such a spot rest where prior resistance area was 2100-2140. second EDIT: We reclaimed 2200 with volume and continued to break out...

AlexPrather

My last chart i described how the prolonged basing at the 480 area was going to create a massive move wherever the volume came in. The volume went to down side and from there we have seen nearly non stop selling all the way down to 280, a 200 dollar move in around 2-3 weeks. To say the least the emotion has been absolutely insane. a 30k wall got eaten in 4 hrs,...

AlexPrather

Bitcoin is at a crossroads and has been trading very weird compared to prior trading. I'm using the BTCCHINA chart here just cause the data is a bit more smoothed out imo since their is more history, but for all intents and purposes its pretty much exactly the same as huobi/okcoin which are by far the most liquid exchanges. What i mean by weird is bitcoin has not...

AlexPrather

Natural gas is currently on the long term trendline and holding after massive price appreciations, whipshaw, consolidation, and sell off. Nat gass is down around a dollar in the past month, around 22%. Technicals: RSI: Super oversold on daily Open and close below weekly bollinger band, hyper extended. Fundamentals: Dollar per unit of energy nat gas still remains...

AlexPrather

There are a lot of ideas I want to show on the charts, but would require me using multiple time frames, which is very hard to do so I will outline them here. 1. Buying above 10dma, selling below has been a consistently profitable strategy. This strategy alone would have gotten you huge returns and kept you in during the strongest pushes, and out during most...

AlexPrather

EDIT: Things haven't been panning out so good and we are having some trendline breaches, I am no neutral-short biased bitcoin for at least till may 6-7th. RSI rsi ramping up a again and selling momentum might come back. Bitcoin keeps rocking back and forth on news and speculation. The longer term trend is still bearish, but the bears seem too scared to take it...

AlexPrather

in my last chart I offered my insight into a potential selling exhaustion episode. Unfortunately I was wrong, and China news ended up being not only true, but more immediate than expected, fueling massive sell-off. The mid-long term trend was already bearish so there it was definitely easy to fuel the selling. Technically here is what I'm seeing. neutral: 1. The...

AlexPrather

Here I write my reasons why I think atm we are at a long term low risk entry point. By long term of course i mean 3-9 months as that is "long" in bitcoin space. We have seen an exhaustion of seeling here are some technicals 1. Buy cry die set up. AT "BUY" labeled in chart you see buyers trying to "time" a bottom and thus you see a quick rebound. Next up you see...

AlexPrather

Even though I don't like looking solely at time based analysis to judge bottoms and tops, i feel combined with other factors it can give on a sense for when inflection points can come forward and exhuastion might have happened. What this chart does: This chart looking at bitcoin bubbles on a daily chart through a regression trend analsyis. This uses regression...

AlexPrather

Commodities have been breaking out all over the place this year, but coal has missed the party. every analyst has something to say about why and when coal will break out, and while I do agree for some extent, the truth is pretty clear, miners are severely undervalued even when taking into account low coal prices. Technicals: 1. We have a strong base where 10wma...

AlexPrather

the sp500 has had a huge bull run, with recent run led by biotechs and computer software. The situation has led to insanely frothy conditions and very high optimism the last couple of weeks, although that optimism did slightly wane during the recent pullback. But here are so key points to keep in mind from a technical perspective: 1. Haven't touched 50wma average...

AlexPrather

Biotech has had an insane run up the last year, and specifically the last 14-15 months where it broke out of its 30wma channel and relative consolidation. At the moment, almost daily we are seeing new bioteches with all sorts of "ideas" no revenues, high valuations come into the market. this is similar to tech booms in my eyes, although not yet as overextended...

AlexPrather

The Brazil sell off appears to largely be over and the decline has been insane. AT the moment I think brazil is offering a major low risk entry point with a tight risk profile where donwside can easily be set at 52 week low of 25.68~. here are some reason I think brazil sell off is over. 1. this ETF is trading at 2009 prices?!?! what ?!?! The amount of fear in...

AlexPrather

China has been relatively flat on the weekly chart for the past 2-3 years after its initial pullback from its push out of the 2009 recession. It is my belief that China is back. Long term price consolidation in this relatively tight narrow band and the recent sell-off all point to low risk entry. Fears of recession or crisis in China are all fluff: China's...

AlexPrather

The VIX has been rolling down most of 2013 since the last fear in 2011. But in my opinion the VIX has gone down too much too fast and as bullish sentiment has almost taken over in most of 2013 leading into 2014. What this signals to me is that the market might have becoming flat and complacent too much too fast and did not have time to properly consolidate and...

AlexPrather

Emerging markets have been getting hammered since the 2008 crash. US markets and some European markets have already blasted past their previous highs as the economy has comeback. In the near term emerging markets seem to be capitulating on fear of growth and currency concerns. A closer look and one sees that the majority of this risk has already been priced in,...