Aps3

Aps3

I’ve been banging my fist on the table for months regarding this wedge formation. We can say it’s because of the news about Andre, but this was almost prophesied. Now, we are at a decision point. If we fail this support line, we may be in trouble. If we bounce, like today, we should be in for quite a swing.

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We exited the wedge to the downside. I wish I could say I was surprised, but I suspected there's enough negative news on Ukraine - Russia and the US/Nato's tepid response that it would sway the total market. Uncorrelated markets correlate more often than they don't, funny enough. At any rate, hope rebound from a potential double top on long time scales.

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This wedge has been playing out consistently for months. This means we should dip below $1.60 before the new bullish swing begins. Overall volumes are declining, and technical indicators are near the bottom (RSI, AO, on-chain, etc.)

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Watching for RSI and AO confirmation of this trend. RSI is showing that the strength in this 1D candle may be real, if it moves past our last local high of this week long correction that will be my first indication. Looking for the AO to do the same. RSI and AO have been very reliable over the last few weeks in spotting trend strength. It also looks like the 4th...

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The highlighted zone is so light on volume. There was a coinciding spike in short liquidations with about $55 mn shorts liquidated between Binance and Okex which may have pushed the price up. Now that it is there I was concerned given how small the volume was that there was really no support in place and price would regress to mean, but it's held. We've also...

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If you look at the volume profile of this last candle at right you can see how small a volume of buying sent us out of the regression channel. That doesn’t convince me of firm support here.

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It’s entirely possible we’ve hit the top of the channel and will now regress to the mean. If so, somewhere around $34,000 will be the next stop. I’ve set aside cash reserves for this phase, as on-chain indicators and data show a growing accumulation, especially in large whats accounts.

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FTM wants to run so bad, but BTC fears hold it back. Bullish divergence on 2H RSI and AO.

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The sell volume on FTMUSD is declining, and the RSI and AO are tapering towards neutral. If they continue to turn, with sell pressure declining, it could signal an upswing. I'm concerned that it won't be a long term return to uptrend, due to this multi-month wedge in play. I'd treat any swing as temporary especially if Bitcoin doesn't return to strength.

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BTCUSD bounced off the current regression channel and regressed to mean. If this trend continues it will look like illustrated. Based on the volume profile from the previous uptrend when BTC crossed $24,000, my next serious support would like around $23,500. While on-chain data shows room for this trend to continue, RSI is showing oversold on 1D.

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FTMUSD telegraphed current market conditions with a convergence of signals. The black line indicates the day we could safely make a decision with proper risk management, by making sure we wait for patterns and signals to completely mature before making a decisive move. 1. On 17 January 22 FTM was trading above $3.00. That day it reached a local all-time-high,...

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While this macro pattern is concerning, the short term gives hope. As shown, the last 1D candle was very bullish. Reflectively, the underlying 4H pattern looked like a typical bottom pattern. Bitcoin also printed a bullish candle in this time frame, but the macro pattern would need to confirm to invalidate this.

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BTCUSD is printing a large double top. In response, FTMUSD is forming a bearish head and shoulders. Now, traditionally many traders used to say don’t trust an HS if the support line is off X axis. Either way, it’s testing this support trend line for the third time. BTC would need a rally to turn us around I fear. On chain indicators show some room left to go lower.

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BTCUSD is sitting at the point of control for this price level, dating back to May - August 2021. I find it no surprise that we've stopped here to catch our breath. I tend not to sell support or buy resistance. This is a wait-and-see price level. We are also at the bottom of the logarithmic regression channel IF this is still a bull trend. The next few hours/days...

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Two reasons I'm watching this price level for Tesla. 1. The market gapped up on multiple time frames and hasn't filled this level ($939 - $958). 2. Please direct your attention to the volume profiles. Note the bottom of this range, $939, has high volume. This happens to be close to where we gapped up, perhaps indicating strong support there. One thing concerns...

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I’ve been detailing the way in which SPELLUSD is sensitive to RSI signals; especially price divergence. Here, price was setting higher highs while RSI was at lower highs. This same signal is been extremely reliable for SPELL as well. I’m waiting for price to pattern out before we declare any change in trend.

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I dub this 3-day 1D candle pattern "three rockets". The first is a continuation candle and the other two are bullish hammers. Interestingly, 4H candles in the highlighted callout print a little consolidation wedge. Some on chain indicators I'm viewing such as the Reserve Risk on BTC show us entering the lowest point (think oversold) since November 2020. The rest...

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I’ve been tracking the RSI vs. SPELL all week. It’s been a very strong indicator of trend reversal, in the 2 and 4H frames. This pattern illustrated is what to look for: an RSI - Price divergence. It telegraphs the reversal. While SPELL doesn’t have enough time to see if this correlates on higher time frames, this is an excellent setup for day trades for now.