Auguraltrader

Auguraltrader

IF you are getting a little frustrated, I am too... something is building up and meanwhile there is a lot of conflicting signals. The week passed, and it appears to suggest the opposite now... a breakdown is more likely... 60/40 in favour of a breakdown, if I may quantify. Set up the Breakout and Breakdown levels, and waiting for some real...

Auguraltrader

Oh oh... the optimism, much as we want it given, does not appear to be. Having bounced off the middle of the consolidation zone, a surge to the upper range resulted in a weak follow through with a lower high, and a following bearish (patterned) candlestick. The technical indicatiors are trickling downwards, and one wonders if it is going to uptick... A bearish...

Auguraltrader

Overlayed the TIP a chart with SPY (blue line). Quite clear that TIP (amongst JNK/HYG and even copper) precedes the index. Given all previous analyses and outlook, what we would like to see is that TIP break out and above its trend line resistance, as does its VolDiv. When this happens, can expect a bullish advancement. MACD has not yet turned to crossover, but...

Auguraltrader

Nice long tail on the weekly chart, after a lower low. Technical indicators MACD and VolDiv appear bearish but this is suspiciously like a hidden dragon. Taken altogether, the first resistance is 76, and once close above 80 is firmed bullish. The lower low suggests more downside, but the length of that tail is telling a very bullish story for the next couple of...

Auguraltrader

Time to review this weekly chart which appears to gain even more importance in giving the insights... Noted that the SG10Y Govt Bond Yields continued to drop, and broke down a support to close at a 9 month low. Also note that since tracking and projecting (the previous dotted green arrow), the path of the SPY (blue line) was on point and closed higher to the...

Auguraltrader

The Combined US indexes chart ended the week with a bearish candlestick that had a little bullish indication with a longer tail and closing above the support line (aka Fake Out Line #2). This is slightly bullish and represents a chance for the earlier projected target of 668 to be achieved in the coming week or two. Yes, technical indicators appear to suggest...

Auguraltrader

The week ended a little confused, post NFP and other announcements. The only slight clarity here is that over the next week (or few weeks), we should see the USD dropping a bit more, breaking down both support lines, for a few days. IF "lucky", the USD futures should reach target at 99, even for a day or two. Now, this comes with a bit of a stretch with...

Auguraltrader

The USD Futures Daily chart is already pointing that way... Once it breaks the yellow support line, it will look for 99. MACD slowing its ascent, while VolDiv is crossing down itself and below zero line. TD Setup is bearish for the USD. Bearish outlook overall.

Auguraltrader Updated 

watch the rest of the week. The USD is likely to slide down further based on the MACD; but VolDiv suggests that it is not likely to be a drastic off the cliff type. A revisit to the last low is very probable (small yellow ellipse) as it broke down the TDST (red dotted line) and should continue to remain below. If it closes the week below the TDST, USD is in a...

Auguraltrader

Based on Crude's weekly chart, it clearly lost the bullish plot (posted 1st May, see linked post). As of the current Crude futures price action, a few preliminary observations can be recorded... 1. A lower low is recorded, and this aligns with the weekly technical outlook of a more bearish close to the weeks ahead; 2. Yesterday closing at 68.52 broke down all...

Auguraltrader Updated 

It appears that Crude lost the bullishness. Initially in March, Crude broke up into the range, and expected bullishness to breakout on the other side, which gave much upside. This was followed by a marubozu and then a gap up. Thing is, it met resistance and failed. Breaking back down and now almost closing the gap. Once the gap is closed, looking for 66-70 for a...

Auguraltrader

Just want to show the projected path... looking for the next breakout

Auguraltrader

Time has come for a crypto pullback Here with the ETHUSD weekly chart, it shows... 1. Lower high done, failing resistance level, and looking for lower low now 2. VolDiv bearish divergence (red arrow) as well as VolDiv crossing down (red circle below) 3. MACD weakening and Signal crossing down into bear territory 4. Pattern recognition projects 1600 downside target

Auguraltrader

Heads up previously, had already mentioned previously, there was bullishness in Gold, but not enough and it was way too stretched to be at the top of the (constipation) range. The weeks went by and few things are very clear here: 1. There is a third lower high (not bullish) 2. Gold is breaking back into the range (really not bullish) 3. The MACD is weakening, the...

Auguraltrader

From the combined weekly chart, it appears that the indices are bullish and on the way up. 1. Tested, bounced off and broke above the Fake Out Lines; 2. Last week's candle is obviously bullish with momentum 3. MACD and VolDiv are both supportive of bullish upside 4. TD Sequential primary trend is bearish, but the current setup appears to aim for a completion over...

Auguraltrader Updated 

Watching the VXX, the VIX ETN, can be quite interesting. It has its own idiosyncrasies, but over the VIX index, this ETN has volume data and charts better than the index on patterns, break outs and break downs. It appears that there has been a bullish divergence of the technical indicators particularly the VolDiv, and less so on the MACD. Nonetheless, it is...

Auguraltrader

The target has been readjusted for time. The week closed above the two fake out lines, which now become critical supports. Technical Indicators, MACD and VolDiv, are bullish. Bull on, Risk on!

Auguraltrader Updated 

NASDAQ led the current bullish rally. NASDAQ appears to be leading the bearish divergence in this stall aka consolidation. Despite yesterday's candle appearing somewhat bullish with a long lower tail, there is a clear and present bearish divergence in BOTH the MACD and VolDiv; and both crossed under their lagging MA lines respectively. The Orange box is the...