EconomicsGlobal

EconomicsGlobal

Interesting to note that despite the nice gains Turkish equities saw in January 2019 (+15.7%) to make up for December 2018 (-6.87%), the asset class has experienced some nasty losses in February (-3.63%) and March (-4.36% so far) - all of which are quickly eroding all YTD gains. Its the only EM market to have suffered such losses so far (rivaling that of South...

EconomicsGlobal

After a strong rally in early 2019, commodities seem to have taken a breather in recent sessions. Since mid-January 2019, due to increased global macro headwinds, as well as slowing economic activity in Europe and China, commodities (DBC as a proxy) have been treading water against key safe haven assets such as the US Dollar (Part 1) and US treasuries...

EconomicsGlobal

Commodities vs US Dollar: As can be seen in in the chart above, when commodities are measured against the US Dollar, the price ratio (DBC/UUP) failed to move higher in recent sessions, and is struggling to re-test its 20-Day EMA (Green) and 50-Day EMA (Blue). See Commodities at a Crossroads? (Part 2) for our commentary

EconomicsGlobal

From a quick look at the US Bonds (LQD as a proxy) and US Equities (SPY as proxy) price ratio, it seems like money is moving slowing moving back into bonds at the moment. This is most likely due to the poor global economic data that has come out in recent weeks. Time will tell as to whether or not this trend continues. But for now, bonds seem to be the asset of...

EconomicsGlobal

After peaking in late December 2018, the price ratio between 7-10 year US Treasuries (IEF as proxy)(numerator) and US Stocks (SPY as Proxy)(denominator) has fallen since then. This is backed up by the fact that the US Treasuries/US Stock ratio fell below its 10 day EMA (Green) and failed to move higher. We believe that this indicates that “Risk-On” sentiment is...

EconomicsGlobal

With the recent upswing in the markets, the short-term technicals point to the DJI trying to retest 25,000 level.

EconomicsGlobal

As the markets move into 2019, it appears that gold (GLD) is beginning to get its luster back. Gold prices have risen since bottom in early October, as market volatility and macro issues continues to plague the financial markets. With strong technical patterns also confirming investors' bullish sentiment on the commodity, our price target for GLD is at $126.11.

EconomicsGlobal

After the formation of a solid "Inverse Head and Shoulders", the price ratio price ratio between US Treasuries (IEF as proxy)(numerator) and US Stocks (SPY as Proxy)(denominator) took off past the neckline of 0.39 in early December. A Golden Cross between the 50/200 Day EMA further supports the trend. This indicates that money is flowing into US treasuries, as a...

EconomicsGlobal

Looks like weakness is beginning to show up in junk bonds, which in turn, does not bode well for stocks or other risky assets. It looks like the recent selloff is not just due to market overreaction, but more due to a shift in market sentiment to the downside. If this persists, look for more downside in Junk and other risky assets.

EconomicsGlobal

It appears a Head and Shoulders pattern may be forming for the Dow. Neckline appears to be 24,525 level. If it breaches, more downside to come.

EconomicsGlobal Updated 

A death cross formed on the Nasdaq TVC:IXIC early this week. Still too early to tell which way the wind is blowing; Clearer signals after #G20