FermiParadox

FermiParadox Updated 

If BTC price action will leave the stronghold resistance of 36K USD behind in the days to come, the days for cheaper buy-ins will be over. However, I do not expect that to happen. I rather expect the 36K stronghold resistance will strike this time and BTC price action will be reflected back down to the 31K level. There will be a reasonable level to take further...

FermiParadox Updated 

I expect a significant upside turn of BTC price action in the next 1-4 weeks. Why? 1. The excess sell off in May, which took price action all the way down to the 2017/18 cycle bottom support line, has still not been corrected. That excess sell off was an equal response in terms of volatility to the overshooting which took BTC to the "unreal" Nov 21 ATH. 2....

FermiParadox

resuming my last post, I tried to figure out a reasonable flagpole extension to determine a short trading target for S&P 500 against BTC. If we exclude a drop to zero (which IMHO could only happen in a full blown world war III scenario and not even then), the flagpole in the chart indicates a drop to around 2 BTC cent. Inversely, if S&P 500 drops to 2 BTC cent...

FermiParadox

If - like me - you hold substantial parts of your cash reserves in BTC rather than USD or other FIAT currencies, there was little reason (at least as an investor) to swap your cash with US stocks in recent months. The chart here depicts the S&P 500 index, measured in BTC-Cent (0,01 BTC) units. Since Feb. 2021, the index is running in a bear flag pattern with...

FermiParadox

The scenario depicted here may seem overly pessimistic, given that the leg C down to the long term channel of "sane" growth within the next 3-6 months can hardly be attributed to facts which are already known. However, the parabolic growth of tech stocks due to a long period of cheap money & exaggerated expectations regarding the impact of new technology, such as...

FermiParadox Updated 

Whereever BTC will find its bottom now, at 20K or even somewhat lower at 18K, we can expect a significant rebound of price action over the course of 12 -16 weeks. Size and dynamics of that rebound may set the stage for further development, mid term (eoY) and beyond. I think it is relevant to understand if the actual BTC halving cycle established a new trend...

FermiParadox

As BTC did not yet retrace to the 54K level (a scenario expected by many, including me), traders currently seem to shy away from taking bold long positions. On the other hand, the "end-of-cycle mantra" & increasing FIAT money inflation will prevent sell offs. I expect the mantra & inflation to be the stronger force. So a break of the resistance around 62K,...

FermiParadox Updated 

Although BTC & Gold differ in many respects, they both serve as highly liquid and low cost of ownership stores of value in times of ever expanding FIAT cash pools & negative real interest rates. Hence, the type of waves which took Gold to its impressive highs & lows during the 1970s may provide a template for what we can expect to happen with BTC these days. The...

FermiParadox

resolution of the triangle was postponed for now, but the bottom trend line of the recent bull run was broken again - in the log charts we are already crawling along the long term bottom channel of the Schiff pitchfork. That in addition with an overall rising wedge pattern could indicate further consolidation down to 51.800 or even another touch down to the 50-day...

FermiParadox

will weekend traders accomplish a breakout decision? If not, we'll probably come to see large scale price movements on Monday morning ...

FermiParadox

for BTC cycles of glitter & doom, we obtain a pretty accurate trace of major price movements by applying a combo of Schiff pitchforks & FIB retracements to the 4 eruptive phases of 2013, 2013/14, 2017/18, 2020/21. Schiff pitchforks, rooted at very bottom prices inbetween eruptions and spanned from eruptive tops to consecutive lows of retracement, tell you where to...

FermiParadox

BTC dropped to the center of a 21d trend channel, bounced back and surpassed the 3d falling wedge with 2 strong flags. Suggest there is headroom to at least 38 000 USD from here within the next 8h, perhaps even more ...

FermiParadox

past days momentum to cross the FIB 0.78 barrier was too low. So I consider a short-term slump to the FIB 0.5. level very likely