Macro-Traders-Strategies

Macro-Traders-Strategies

I posted this chart 2 years ago....we are starting the defined of the AI bubble, a near 30% YoY compounding growth cycle The Bubble cycle 1) First comes the Infrastructure 2) Then comes the Startups 3) Then comes the Services Don't get left behind, as the Fed spends the next 2-3 years cutting rates fueling the bubble, we are just getting started.

Macro-Traders-Strategies

rate differentials along with a diverging economy should see EURO fall below parity! If you have trouble understanding macro economics, just follow dumb money and do the exact opposite...there's plenty of them on MINDS posting every day... Good luck and happy trading

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Global trade war looms, but tariffs are not necessary the best weapon for that war. Prepare for the looming prospect of a trade war, set to unfold on a global scale. Tariffs are poised to become the primary weapon in this economic conflict, necessitating a clear understanding of their implications. Donald Trump's potential return to office is a significant...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

DISCLAIMER NO BUMS allowed, if you don't like making money and consistently downvote radical ideas and thinking because you are bitter and haven't made money for the past 12 months, then stop following me and LEAVE. This is a strictly NO-BUMS allowed post.... DXY usually follows deficit, and although for the past 10 years, we have seen stagnating growth in the...

Macro-Traders-Strategies Updated 

DISCLAIMER NO BUMS allowed, if you don't like making money and consistently downvote radical ideas and thinking because you are bitter and haven't made money for the past 12 months, then stop following me and LEAVE. This is a strictly NO-BUMS allowed post.... The previous week's NFP data session exhibited significant volatility, offering opportunities for both...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

What an impressive kickoff to the year! Despite the stock market's initial decline, largely attributed to tax harvesting and rebalancing, I still anticipate a substantial influx of funds returning to the market. This year is poised to be another double-digit growth period for equities. If one selects the right stocks, the potential for triple-digit account growth...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

In the second installment of my series on trading FOREX currency pairs, I emphasize the significance of adopting a macro view and comprehending central bank policies for achieving consistent profits in forex trading. For those new to trading, I suggest revisiting my first post where I delve into the significance of analyzing interest rate differentials for your...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

This excerpt is part of a larger blog post where I'll delve into my 2024 trading strategy and explain the rationale behind my trades. For those new to trading, early career decisions play a pivotal role in shaping one's trading trajectory, significantly impacting both profitability and mental ability to continue trading over the years. The two choices are...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

EU and US spreads are exploding higher as markets start pricing in the spreads between what is required and what is committed (Fed only so far). For Historical reference, price has always followed interest rate spreads

Macro-Traders-Strategies

The real U.S yield curve (Blue) suggests that the U.S. Dollar (Yellow) may weaken over the next 12 months. The main beneficially will be Japanese YEN who haven't moved monetary policy for over 42 years. Currency pairs are relative to move so I see the Yen appreciating, followed by the EUR.

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Yesterday, the Federal Reserve underwent a significant shift that caught many market participants off guard. Just a few weeks ago, on November 29th, the Fed Chair had expressed caution, deeming rate cuts as "premature" and indicating the possibility of further rate hikes. The market responded with a rally in the dollar as investors factored in the likelihood of an...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

As we enter the holiday season, I anticipate heightened market volatility driven primarily by short-term traders, who will likely prioritize technical indicators over fundamental factors. The influence of fundamentals on price action is expected to become more pronounced in January. The market's focus will shift to Federal Reserve Chair Powell's remarks on recent...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

The US dollar appears vulnerable to further declines, given the data suggesting an economic slowdown, possibly even a mild recession. This could potentially drive the EUR/USD exchange rate towards the range of 1.15 to 1.23, with the outcome depending on the performance of the European Union in comparison to other major economies such as Japan and the United...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

AI will become the supplier of all workforce demand in the world! Countries suffering brain fade, lack of an educated workforce, trying to catchup to highly educated markets like Singapore but want to continuing paying low wages, will fill the workforce gap using AI It will be a bigger then the DOT.Com bubble as companies using AI will see their productivity go...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Fundamentally, the EURO should be experiencing a decline to reach new 52-week lows, given that its fair value, based on growth indicators, should be approximately at 1.02. However, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, Ukraine and far east and the subsequent financial support provided by the United States have put the US at risk of a potential credit...

Macro-Traders-Strategies Updated 

META, along with Nvidia and Microsoft, appears to be at the forefront of AI advancements. While Nvidia and MS have been well-recognized players in the AI domain, Meta and Google also wield substantial potential, given their vast data repositories that train their AI models, including releasing their powerful LLM model (Llama 2) to accelerate training and...

Macro-Traders-Strategies

This is what data dependence looks like! Powell indicated they 'COULD' raise again, but the CME FedWatch disagrees, according to the markets, the next move will be a cut starting in 2024. But now we are looking at data, data dependency. Good luck with your trading

Macro-Traders-Strategies

Month end rebalancing could mean risk on equities and risk off dollar. The EURUSD triangle is nearly complete. We will know in August, with a move to 1.14-1.16 as the Fed is likely to pause in Sept, October and the any increase in rate hike will only be in November.