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Jim Simons about uncertainty: "Don't rely on luck alone. Develop a systematic approach that accounts for uncertainty and seeks to capitalize on opportunities." This quote highlights the importance of understanding and managing uncertainty in order to be successful in any field, including finance. Simons is a renowned mathematician and hedge fund manager who...

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This is a familiar story for EV makers after their stock becomes publicly tradable! NIO, LUCID, RIVN, You can read my article about RIVN when it was 149 usd/share and 4th biggest automaker based on its market cap: However, it lost 89% of its value in 25 weeks! Today RIVN is ranked 23rd most significant market cap. NIO once had a market capitalization of $89.5...

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Forbes: a top official at the Department of Health and Human Services released one of the most consequential announcements ever made at the federal level concerning cannabis prohibition. The agency formally recommended that cannabis be moved from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act, a classification for drugs that have a high potential for abuse and no...

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I published my analysis about AI bubble burst in August, now it looks like TSLA supercomputer Dojo has attracted market attention and drain liquidity out of NVDA and cryptocurrency market! At the time of writing this article TSLA is +9.1% and NVDA -2.16%, and my quantitative model scored TSLA +10 (Max buy) and NVDA -10 (max sell). Meanwhile, cryptocurrency market...

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In this article, I would like to talk about a less-known pattern, Bump and Run. The bump and run pattern is a reversal pattern that is formed after excessive speculation drives prices up too far, too fast. It is characterized by a sharp price increase (the bump), followed by a consolidation or pullback (the run). Here are some of the key features of the bump and...

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Valuation: VLO is currently trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 4.3x, which is below the industry average of 15.9x. This suggests that the stock is undervalued. VLO's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is also 1.1x, which is below the industry average of 1.4x. This suggests that the stock is also undervalued on a book value basis. Profitability: VLO has a strong...

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Let's put the possible double-top formation pattern aside and look under the hood. The most recent Berkshire Hathaway 13F filing was on August 14, 2023. The top 10 holdings, as a percentage of the portfolio, were as follows: Apple (AAPL): 49.6% Bank of America (BAC): 8.0% American Express (AXP): 6.5% Coca-Cola (KO): 5.4% Chevron (CVX): 4.2% Kraft Heinz (KHC):...

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The past 100 weeks:

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A straddle is an options strategy that involves buying both a put option and a call option with the same strike price and expiration date. The goal of a straddle is to profit from a large price movement in the underlying asset, regardless of whether the price moves up or down. The profit potential of a straddle is unlimited, but the loss is limited to the amount...

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Who is Micheal J Burry and Why everyone talks about him Today? Today on most social media pages everyone talks about this news: Michael Burry just shorted the market with $1.6B Bought $890M of AMEX:SPY Puts Bought $740M of NASDAQ:QQQ Puts This now makes up 93% of his entire portfolio To me, Michael J Burry is a True Living Legend! Michael J. Burry is an...

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last night I published 3 analyses on 20 tickers and shared the links with my followers. (private posts) 20 out of 20 tickers behave as predicted today..! The odds of being correct is 1 in 1,048,576..! Banks: BAC,WFC,JPM,C,MS,and GS They are all down but they are near their support levels. they could experience a rally before their earnings! Keep your eyes on...

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In this article, I want to make my argument against the famous Random Walk Theory: First, let's see if the simplest thing that we think is Random and generates random outcome is really random: Coin Flip The most compelling finding that raises concerns about the validity of the coin toss comes from the use of mechanical coin flippers, which can be made to...

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There are five stages of a bubble in an asset price: Displacement: This is the stage where the price of an asset begins to rise above its fundamental value. This can happen for a variety of reasons, such as a new technological development, a change in economic policy, or simply investor psychology. Boom: In this stage, the price of the asset continues to rise...

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No 2 Consecutive positive trading days for S&P500 and NASDAQ100 in August 2023, after we had the best rally in the first 7 months of the year! V-shape corrections (reversal) are rare, but at this point, I think it is good to be considered in our probabilistic calculations! 16 trading days without 2 positive days in a row for NASDAQ100 is the longest period in the...

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a former options trader and risk analyst who is now a best-selling author and essayist. He is known for his work on black swan events, randomness, and antifragility. Taleb has written about mean reversion in several of his books, including Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. He argues that mean reversion is a statistical phenomenon...

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Logarithmic and normal (linear) charts are two different types of charts used to represent data in various fields, such as science, finance, engineering, and more. They differ in how they handle the scaling of the vertical (Y) axis. Let's explore each type of chart: 1. **Logarithmic Chart**: A logarithmic chart uses a logarithmic scale on one or both axes. The...

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John Kelly was a physicist and mathematician who worked for Bell Labs. He is best known for his work on information theory, which he applied to the field of finance. Kelly's formula, which is used to calculate the optimal bet size in a gambling game, is still used by quantitative traders today. Claude Shannon was a mathematician and electrical engineer who is...

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A head and shoulders pattern is a technical analysis chart pattern that is formed by three peaks, with the middle peak being the highest. The two outer peaks are called the shoulders, and the middle peak is called the head. The pattern is considered to be a bearish reversal pattern, meaning that it signals a change from an uptrend to a downtrend. The head and...