Nasdaq seems to have reached exreme levels since the October 2023 bottom but i believe that the rally has not ended yet, at least until the mid of the month. Next level to reach 19000, expecting a breakout from the channek at the end of the week.
A clear correlation between Euro Stoxx 50 - Ftse 100 ratio, and the EUR/GBP exchange rate. I believe we will see European equities outperforming until January 2024, and the pound getting stronger, reaching 1.4 to 1.5 level versus the euro. From a macro perspective, the UK is in a harder corner as inflation is clearly more elevated, but this will also force UK...
SPX/GOLD ratio turning bearish again. A major start for another strong commodity cycle.
The current macroeconomic environment shows that the US will unavoidably enter a recession between the end of Q3 and mid-Q4. The Fed is pushing the boundaries and has stated until recently that the Fed Funds rate will stay elevated for some period, which in my opinion, the markets are not pricing in correctly. Operating margins and earnings, especially for tech...
With credit conditions starting to deteriorate currently,(mostly in Europe) high yielding debt will definitely be most negatively affected, especially after the first rate hikes from the Fed. Another great opportunity here to go short. The structure shows clearly a developing Wyckoff distribution similar to the one of Bitocin just before it crashed to 30k last May.