ScottMelker

ScottMelker

Yesterday’s candle had a $3000 spread, causing full euphoria in the crypto community. People are looking for ANY evidence that the bull market is resuming in full force. A simple look at the chart made it crystal clear that this price action was a nothing burger. Price is still trading near the range lows, rejected at key resistance etc. Once again, I know...

ScottMelker

Bitcoin es muy aburrido. So boring. As you can see, we did have multiple candles test the range lows successfully as support, a decent sign. That said, price is still trading below the track line on Trading Alpha and we don’t have grey dots. I also noticed that RSI has bounced relatively hard back to 50 without much price appreciation to show for it. Chop. I...

ScottMelker

Still boring. Yesterday did print a bullish engulfing candle, which is encouraging. We also saw price bounce off of the range low, which is another positive signal. That said, we still are just ranging near the range low and trading below the track line.

ScottMelker

I am personally NOT trading altcoins right now and I do not own this coin. That said, it has shown tremendous relative strength for this entire bull market and on this recent drawdown. As you can see, Trading Alpha is showing squeeze shading, a breakout to the upside, a grey arrow showing a buy signal and grey dots. About as clear as it gets. There was also a...

ScottMelker

Absolutely a brutal chop fest. The good news? We were all prepared for it, and know that it is highly likely to continue for many months. Hopefully it will not, but if this is just a “normal” 4-year cycle, then we could be doing this until the fall. At the moment, Bitcoin is retesting the range lows set after the all time high. Bulls want to show some strength...

ScottMelker

Nothing to see here - really just sideways chop with a rejection at the track line. No signal at all.

ScottMelker

Proceed with slight caution. Just as bullish divergence has shown us the bottoms, bearish divergence often shows us the tops - and we have that right now. Becareful on lower time frames here.

ScottMelker

Bitcoin printed a lovely weekly candle - a hammer with a long wick down and small bullish body. This is often a sign of strengthening demand (buyers buying up the dips) and of a bullish reversal. That said, this is still just trading in a range, with price sweeping those range lows on higher time frames. Not much to get excited about until we break through the...

ScottMelker

Bitcoin is still looking weak, trading below the range and showing little ability to take the range lows. Trading Alpha is still showing bearish dots on every meaningful time frame, with price below the track line. Further, we STILL have not hit oversold yet on RSI after having bearish divergence with overbought conditions in March. The good news? One more decent...

ScottMelker

I failed to comment on the monthly close yesterday, which was a bit of a miss on my part. As you can see, we have a massive bearish engulfing candle, not an ideal signal for “up only” bulls that expected no more corrections in this “new paradigm.” We will have to see how this month closes - if it is red, it confirms April’s ugly candle, the first since last...

ScottMelker

This is not a trade or a signal, but rather some sweet, sweet hindsight to give some perspective on where we are at. Bitcoin Dominance is obviously Bitcoin’s share of the entire market place. When it is rising, that means that you would generally rather be in Bitcoin than altcoins (select altcoins usually outperform regardless), and when it is dropping you want to...

ScottMelker

Broke and retested range lows as resistance. Nothing but air until around $52,000 on the chart. My biggest concern I have been discussing for months (in newsletter) is that RSI never made the trip to oversold. Almost there now, all lower time frames oversold. This is still ONLY A 23% correction, very shallow for a bull market and consistent with other...

ScottMelker

Out of sheer boredom, I clicked on my old favorite indicator, the Ichimoku Cloud. Without going into too much detail on how it works. I can say that those who use this strategy should be salivating at ETH at the moment. The flat cloud top (kumo) is considered strong support - this is the third test. The brown line, or Kijun, is also viewed as a support level for...

ScottMelker

ETH price action has been viewed as a signal for the rest of the altcoin market in past cycles. I just wanted to share the main weekly support levels, in case this correction continues. These black lines are the areas that we could likely see interest in Ethereum.

ScottMelker

RSI has once again given amazing signal. Clear bullish divergence for the entry. Confirmed hidden bearish divergence for the exit. Easy trade. Will we run it back with bullish divergence again here? We need to see a clear elbow up in RSI if we get the lower low on price. Regardless, this price action is disgusting and utterly avoidable.

ScottMelker

It appears we have some bullish divergence with RSI on the 4-hour chart (and 6-hour possibly). Not oversold this time, so not as strong of a signal - but RSI also never made it to overbought. Seems good to me for a trade, but likely just a bounce.

ScottMelker

The weekly candle failed to confirm the reversal from last week. Remember, we had a reversal candle 8 days ago, but for that to be relevant we wanted to see a green candle this week. Not a big deal, but not the clear sign we were looking for. On the weekly, we are clearly still ranging and Trading Alpha still has the bullish grey dots intact. More chop.

ScottMelker

If we take a look at the weekly Bitcoin chart and draw the same range that we have been looking at on the daily, the situation becomes more clear. Why? When you have a range, you add the EQ (equilibrium, center dashed line) and it tends to act as resistance and support. As you can see, the last two weekly candles all found strong resistance at the range EQ and...