E/U still sideway in a tight range between 1.1325- 1.1450 since March 31. I could count 7 doji stars on the daily chart, E/U hold firmly on the support 1.1325 What does this mean ?. It means Euro is accumulating momentum for a next move : A breakout definitely occurs in the near term and likely in this week. Moreover, DMS system. ADX line (light blue light)...
Thank to Canada Employment report. The number beat the forecast and is printed at 40.6K while Unemployment Rate fall 2bp to 7.1% Loonie immediately gains support and rally across the board, WTI quickly react and goes up $2.60 Next week, BOC Meeting is the central focus regarding to Loonie. With recent uptick of economic data, 100% BOC will shift the stance to...
They strong support 110 was pierced easily today and U/J fell quickly to 108. . I wonder likely there are special problems so investors strengthen to buy Yen recent days: a strongest safe haven currency. A financial storm is coming ? I don't know. I know there is a huge bubble in stock market around the world,and the day of collapse is just the matter of time, but...
For 4 days , EURUSD sideways in a very tight range between 1.1330-1.1400 : Only 70 pips. If you look at daily chart, we will see 1 big doji star and 3 hammers on the chart. It means market participants are very hesitate about next move, they need to find a catalyst to give a decision. Today, the main focus will be FOMC Minutes. Initially, I don't think this will...
Next 3 incoming days is the time to watch Canada data. Tomorrow, main focus is Ivey PMI, and Friday is unemployment report. Like I said in the beginning of week, I continue to weight commodity currencies such Loonie and Aussie. Last night, despite of neutral stance of RBA, and unchanged rate, Aussie, Loonie, and Kiwi were sold across the board especially vs...
The pair I recommend traders should watch this week is AUDNZD. It is holding near 3 year high : 1.1375-1.1400 handle. The question is could it hold this handle or lost momentum ?. Support is at 1.1140 Fundamental : - RBNZ would cut rate one more time in this year. - While RBA refused to talk about rate cut despite they want to see Aussie's drop. This week,...
EURUSD passed 6 consecutive sell-off days but the volatility was very low. The question is will this drop continue in this week or just temporary ? Many traders considers that this drop is just temporary because the volatility is very low so a soar will likely occur in the near future. However, in my opinion, I don't think this drop will stop now. This drop...
BOJ obviously dislikes current level of USDJPY. They can't stop investors buy safe asset like Yen. Many orders is putting take profit to 110 for USDJPY. I draw on the chart, strong support is at 110.50 I think it's the floor of USDJPY. This week, I want to see it retests 114.50 key resistance level.
EURGBP is the pair I encourage traders sell it this week. Fundamentally, there are clear signals that EZ data would be negative and Euro should trader lower. While Cable began to enter the correction period especially vs Euro. Technically, 0.7920 likely is a final destination of the rally of EURGBP. If I'm right, a triple top pattern is more obvious. Of...
This week, UK CPI is the central focus, but I don't think it will negative, I choose unchanged. I concentrate in Technical Analysis because I see a lot of things in it. Firstly, GBPUSD now stops at the ceiling of Kumo cloud. If it breaks the cloud, more appreciation is coming. Secondly, Strong resistance level is at 1.4660 where I see SMA100 is lying there....
This week, Euro is the central focus with lot of data will be released. ZEW , IFO data, and Markit PMI. EZ data in March performed very bad so I don't think EZ data this week will be bright. Look at on the chart, EURUSD now stops at 1.1350 : It's a two month high: A meaningful resistance level. Mario Draghi clearly is unhappy with current level of Euro and if...
Recent two weeks, we see a strong correction of GBPUSD from the year low 1.3835 to 1.4400. The main reason is market sells Dollar for many reasons. This week, BOE Meeting is a risk event. Very important for Cable. We saw last week ECB opened the fire with many measures to increase easing, and BOE is under strong pressure to follow ECB to accommodate monetary...
This week, we have two important central banks: BOJ and FED. We knew that BOJ officially used negative interest rate last meeting to boost economy and spending, so I don't expect any measure in this BOJ meeting. It's likely is a non-event. While I choose neutral stance and no rate hike decision in FED Meeting. It means negative view for Dollar. Combine two...
Last week, we saw BOC kept interest rate unchanged and Canada employment report once missed the forecast with the rise of unemployment rate and the drop of employment change. This week, main focuses are FED Meeting and Canada CPI. Although I keep bearish view for Dollar ahead FED meeing, but I also have a negative view to Loonie base on recent weak data: Ivey,...
The Friday's candlestick showed some interesting things: - 1: Bounced at SMA200 + resistance 1.1050 - 2: Break SMA100 - 3: Break ascending trend line.( This will trigger more decline). - 4: Break 50% Fib retracement : trend reversed. With those 4 reasons, I bet on more falling of EURUSD to 1.08 level.
This week, RBC + Ivey PMI ,and Payrolls are main data affecting to USDCAD. Recent days, market calls for a rate hike to BOC because of pressure of inflation : current number 2.1% While housing bubble in Vancouver and Toronto is a big problem to deal, BOC needs a 25bp rate hike to cool down housing market, but this is not good for economic health. I don't think...
There are a lot of signals of Technical show Aussie is under pressure. - This is the second time AUDUSD is defeated at 0.7250 in this year. - A bounce at SMA200 revives short position. - A/U contacts ascending trend line ( black line) : Any break will send Aussie to lower level. - RSI indicator: once, it touches the ceiling then bounce back. Four those...
I avoid to analyze DXY chart because performance of greenback vs other currencies is not identical. This week, with payrolls and many numbers of strong data, I believe USDollar continues to outperform vs Euro, Cable and Yen while lower vs Loonie, Aussie, and Kiwi. It means USDollar moves in two opposite ways vs commodity currencies and safe-haven...