On Monday, I thought NZDUSD would break SMA200 and officially escaped the capture of SMA200 But Unfortunately, It bounced from that resistance on Tuesday. It's fifth times N/U rejects SMA200. And third time at key resistance 0.6750 I see with that third time, A triple top pattern arises. Here is my idea: We could see NZDUSD refuses SMA200 + SMA100 +...
Look at on the chart, there is a rare incident I see on the chart: - SMA200+SMA100+SMA50 converge in a range about 70 pips. If NZDUSD breaks those move averages, we could see a big move. I see NZDUSD has had many efforts to break SMA200,unfortunately it still hold below it. This week, I lean to US side and bet on bearish side for NZDUSD because of downside risk remain.
Last two weeks, we saw a great effort of SPX to bounce from 2015 low to test resistance at 1940 This week, I hope US data will be positive to bring momentum for US Stock market to break this resistance. - Consumer Confidence. - Markit PMI - Durable Goods Orders - GDP - PCI data - New Homes Sales. - Personal Spending + Income All pieces of data would be the...
This week, I alert traders to watch EURJPY. 126 is a strong support, very strong and important support. It is 3 year Low. Any break 3 year low will have result is a strong selloff. But EURJPY is captured in a descending channel I draw on the chart. The best trade is waiting for break of channel and SELL EURJPY. I think this would happen this week with many EZ...
This week, market pays all attention on EZ with lot of important data : Markit PMI, IFO data, CPI and GDP data which could trigger big move for Euro. While I bet on positive data for US side, I have negative view for Euro. Look at on the chart, EURUSD is still fighting around the key level: SMA200 + Strong support at 1.1050 A break the support would bring...
Loonie continues to outperform vs USDollar despite of Oil decline recent days. I see many bearish signals than bullish signals. - Firstly, Resistance show clearly at 1.400 level I show on the chart. - Secondly, USDCAD seems want to move below Kumo cloud. - Thirdly, SMA50 : U/C also breaks it. SMA50 + Kumo cloud+!.400 level sharps a strong resistance which...
For two weeks, USDJPY lost 1000 pips due to demand for safe-haven currency in global uncertainty. This is the biggest lost of USDJPY since 1998 : 18 years one time. So it's a rare phenomenon. I have a pessimistic view about current situation of global economy. There is no bright signal. Despite the effort of BOJ to increase stimulus and depreciate Yen, I think...
EURUSD has had a great effort to break SMA200 and the key trend line I draw on the chart. I think market would not destroy this effort of Euro and bid for this trend. In the background of global uncertainty, Euro is considered as a good safe-haven currency, and I don't see this uncertainty is over. That why I believe EURUSD will rally to 1.1500 in the medium term.
Last week, we see SPX bounced back at 2015 low around 1800 level. This is a strong support, market immediately reacted when SPX reached this level. The question is Could it be a sustainable bounce for just a trap ? The uncertainty around the world cause the cautiousness for investors want to buy Stock. This week, the main focus are FOMC Minutes, US CPI data,...
Gold reaches 7 month high in two weeks. This is a great move because global economy view is very negative. US economy begins to react what happening outside America. Absolutely, Gold is a good shelter for who seeking safe-haven asset. I don't see any positive in current condition to remove this bias. Hence, in the medium term, I believe Gold continue to...
USDollar is continuing to loss its strength due to 3 main reasons: - FED definitely delay to hike rate in March, and we don't know surely when they liftoff again. - Global uncertainty posts a real threat to US and Dollar. - Even labor market performs well, the rest data are still very negative. Hence,it's easy to understand why USDollar falls. I think this...
USDCAD retraced sharply due to: - While major central banks increase easing, BOC refuses to do that. - Energy price bounces from the troguh. We see U/C rallied 4 months from 1.2810 to 1.4680 : It was 1800 pips : That is a great move, so it's not surprising if it corrects from the peak. But how much does it retraces ? Draw Fibonacci retracement from...
Okay, Oil had a great effort to escape negative zone below $30 Now Oil stops at the key resistance level at $36 I see the last trading day is a Doji star. This week, the rebound will face strong challenge. If it breaks $36, then next resistance is 38.85 at Kumo cloud, but I'm not surprised if Oil bounces back at key resistance. The imbalance between Demand...
The main event regarding to Aussie this week is RBA Minutes on Monday. Here is my view: RBA needs to do something to fight back threads come from China. They should follow BOJ and cut rate 25bp. If they refuse to cut rate, definitely they must be more dovish and signal one more rate cut. Hence, the bias to trade Aussie this week is SELL vs selected currencies....
USDJPY had a great move last week. Thanks to BOJ. The question is does USDJPY maintain the bullish momentum ? We can't ignore the fact that world's economy is in turmoil with many problems which still not have solution. Hence, investors still choose Japanese Yen as a good destination for safe haven place. USDJPY now stops at key point I show on the chart....
Last week, BOJ killed the rally of E/U when they cut rate below 0. 4 consecutive rallied days, then the selloff arose and erased the gain,poor job for E/U. This is fifth times E/U rejects 1.100 levels proving that this is a very strong resistance. EURUSD is a boring pair. It sideways in tight range between 1.07 and 1.1000 for two months. Only 300 pips or...
Last week, NZ CPI sank to 0.1% : the lowest number since 2009. this post a great threat to New Zealand and RBNZ. The recovery of NZDUSD last week is just technical, you see it bounced from 38.2% Fib retracement at 0.6550 Here is my view: RBNZ will cut rate or at least more dovish and drives Kiwi back to the downtrend.
The drop of UDSCAD mainly is contributed by two reasons: - BOC refused to cut rate and shift hard decision to government to use fiscal policies than monetary policies. - The recovery of oil. However, we can't ignore the fact: + The imbalance between Supply and Demand of Oil is stil exist. + Overall Canada economy is weak. Hence, the fall of USDCAD is not...