ThirdWaveUp

ThirdWaveUp

With a previous low and the 50% retracement level, 1200-1210 may be a good area to look for support if gold swings downward. And that could be a wave "2" in a larger leading diagonal upward, although it could also be a 3rd wave down for a larger move in the other direction. I think it will be difficult to see what happens until the elections are over. I am not...

ThirdWaveUp

Increased volume, recent news, and green heiken ashi bars makes oil look strong. Also I want to note the support found at the fib 618 level. But we are still under the resistance line. If oil breaks high I will be looking at 64 for the next resistance. If sellers happen to win I will be looking to 36 for the next support level. This is not a trade recommendation.

ThirdWaveUp Updated 

If the triangle plays out and TLT swings lower, the red area is where I will be looking the first signs of support. We have 200 mA, a support line and a fib level in this area. A break above 141.72 would invalidate the triangle count.

ThirdWaveUp

If gold continues its uptrend, here are some fib levels I will be watching for resistance. There is sufficient structure for a completed C wave however and a trend reversal would not surprise me.

ThirdWaveUp

Just read the callouts.

ThirdWaveUp

Gold broke resistance a couple of days ago. If a pullback occurs, I would watch for support at the previous resistance line (which becomes support). In terms of Elliott waves, the GREEN "4" wave count becomes invalid above 1162.76. The purple waves are an alternate, leading diagonal count which would indicate a possible reversal to the trend. Previously I've...

ThirdWaveUp

DISCLAIMER: This chart is intended for research purposes ONLY, and is NOT intended to suggest actual market trade decisions. Please consult a licensed trader or perform your own research when performing actual trades. Gold triangle breakout was on the high side. If the 4th wave was a triangle, we would expect breakout to be short. I have re-evaluated my wave...

ThirdWaveUp

I am still waiting patiently for this triangle correction to complete. My confirmation will be when I see the red HA bars below the support line (purple arrow). If the market breaks above the resistance line with green HA bars, I will re-evaluate my wave count and remain neutral. Gold has now painted more bars than in the green "II" wave, which we would...

ThirdWaveUp

One possible wave count in gold is an ending diagonal labeled with intermediate BLUE waves. Diagonals are composed of smaller zig-zag (labeled in GOLD) subwaves. BLUE wave 4 can overlap BLUE wave 1 in diagonal formations. If this wave count is actual, we would expect the GOLD “C” wave to end in a motive wave (i.e. 5 waves) structure, although it may also end...

ThirdWaveUp

Dont let this double zig-zag (in black letters) looking wave fool you. It may also be a leading diagonal (in red numbers) for a first wave down in the dollar. Its always good to have two different counts. If the dollar trend resumes upward, I will be looking at the fib retracement levels closely for signs of weakness. Up trend remains intact: the dip below...

ThirdWaveUp

Fibonacci was a mathematician that developed a sequence of numbers. A number in this sequence is the sum of the previous two numbers: 0 1 1 2 3 5 8 and so on. Using some complicated math, ratios can be derived. As it turns out, these ratios are found in the solar cycles of planetary movement. According to Elliott, they are also common retracement levels in...

ThirdWaveUp

Elliott waves can be an art form as much as a technical tool. On this oil trade, I'm not sure what the larger degree waves are. I can see motive waves down and I can see the possibility of a diagonal. A diagonal is a motive/corrective hyrbid that subdivides into three waves instead of five. Perhaps its just a large zig-zag. But regardless, the correction on...

ThirdWaveUp

Recently I watched a youtube video on a successful trader's system. He uses Heiken Ashi bars as a triggering mechanism. I applied this with my knowledge of Elliott waves. First, Elliott waves unfold in progressions of 5 waves. Three of those waves (1,3 and 5) are price movers, known as motive waves. The other two (2 and 4) are corrective waves. In this chart...