WattBazooka

WattBazooka

Bought some USDZAR here at 17.25. Looking for a move to 17.75. Stop loss at 17.05. General thoughts are that the Fed's job got a lot harder with the huge rally in risk post the soft CPI data yesterday. I would not be surprised if JP adopts a hawkish tone today. That opens the door for some USD strength. Tech setup also decent with USDZAR in a clearly defined...

WattBazooka Updated 

Short BTCUSD here at 42700, s/l 44300, t/p 39700 Stop is just above 21dma and 12th/13th Jan highs, t/p at a re-test of last Sep lows. Risk:reward 1:1.9 A clean break of 39700 could open up an air pocket down to the Aug lows around 37500.

WattBazooka Updated 

Major long-term downtrend broken. Inverse head & shoulders. 200 dma broken. Short-term MAs broken. This chart screams a move to 15.56. Long USDZAR. Good luck!

WattBazooka

Watching closely. Could see a move back to highs if we break from this consolidation. Seen similar patterns on SOLEUR for example over the last few weeks.

WattBazooka

Led by the US, SA yields have dropped strongly since April. (When yields fall, bond prices are rising). From here it looks like a re-test of 8.65. Fundamental story remains weak in the Republic but while US fixed income is rallying, hard to see South Africa not following.

WattBazooka

SA 10 YR yields are climbing steeply (bond prices falling). Given the backdrop of rising global rates, keep an eye closely to this chart. We have broken the 200 dma and the trend is firmly higher. This will also weigh heavily on the ZAR, and I would expect USDZAR to trade significantly higher as these yields climb. Next stop on the chart is 9.36. You have been warned!

WattBazooka

Been playing this largely from the short side over the last few months. A few times I have looked for some sort of bounce but, as you can clearly see, that didn't work out well. Zooming out and looking at the big picture, it's pretty clear on the weeklies that USDZAR looks to be heading for a test of the 14.00 mark last seen around the end of Dec 2019. USDZAR is...

WattBazooka Updated 

USDZAR has been rangebound between 16.15 and 17.65 since late May. Since the highs at 19.30 in early April, we have also been building a big descending triangle. This downward trendline has held remarkable well despite being tested multiple times. We are also below the 200dma now which is providing resistance at 16.76. Price action wise, USDZAR trades offered and...

WattBazooka Updated 

Breaking through the lower boundary of the recent rectangle. Opens up a decent move lower. Good luck!

WattBazooka Updated 

USDZAR has been forming a strong base over the last while. 200 dma at 16.50 is also providing some support. SA GDP print at 11:30 this morning and it's likely to be an absolute shocker. Sure it's expected, but I would say there is more risk that it's even worse than expected. Looking for a little bounce from here (16.75) to 17.25. S/l at 16.45. Good luck!

WattBazooka Updated 

After a few sessions of pullback, gone long here looking for 18.05. S/l at 17.25. Good luck!

WattBazooka Updated 

Clean break of the downtrend since early May. Dollar Index may be collapsing but USDZAR is due for a proper bounce. Stop 16.50, target 17.50. Good luck!

WattBazooka Updated 

Gone long USDZAR here for a little bounce. Stop 16.25, Target 16.80. Felt a bit oversold and has been struggling to break 16.40. Lots of buyers down here. Good luck!

WattBazooka Updated 

Gone short USDZAR here as we collapse out of the triangle. Target 16.55.

WattBazooka

Volatility is being completely crushed as we tighten and tighten into a narrower and narrower wedge. At the moment it's as tight as 17.00*17.25. This of course means that the resultant break higher or lower will be particularly violent as the sprung coil is released. The next few sessions are going to be critical. Keep an eye on SA 10 year bonds where yields have...

WattBazooka Updated 

I'm small short USDZAR from yesterday morning... just trying to play the 16.50*17.50 range that is containing the pair for now. The only thing I'd point out is that 17.50 is huge resistance. We have tried there several times and failed. For now though, risk is rallying and if this persists we will grind lower to the 16.50 zone. Keeping it light & tight - good luck!

WattBazooka

Watching this for a potential rectangular breakout if we can get cleanly through the 1800 zone. Would open up an initial target at 2400. Potential acquisition target too.

WattBazooka

Massive resistance at 17.50. We have to clear that level before we open up 18. Strong support at 16.50 too... so for now we are very contained in the 16.50*17.50 range. Lots of headline risk this week around the budget on Wednesday. On the sidelines right now but watching these levels closely.