YaroslavBirchenko

01:21

YaroslavBirchenko

The USDJPY has been rangebound at the top of a massive growth spurt. For several weeks it has not been able to break above 151.878. Currently we have a flag pattern on the hourly graph that signals a decline is in process. Hourly Target 150.417 For those of you who think that the Japanese yen is in for a shakeup and a turnaround can hold on to the daily graph...

YaroslavBirchenko

Attention traders! S&P 500 gap down usually results in a continuation. We are overbought, steam is running out, investors are looking to take risk off from their trades for the last two weeks. When those positions close to take profits it will change the markets direction. The very first step was taken, we have gapped down. There is room to go down until we touch...

YaroslavBirchenko

European Union leaders are open to new deals with China. In order to hedge the current risk of US trade tariffs China has spread its trade network far and wide. All over Africa, Chinese companies have invested and gained majority shares in mining companies, utilities and agriculture. Next week we will see during the EU-China summit what investments China will make...

YaroslavBirchenko

Since the start of the year, oil has been slowly and steadily heading higher. OPEC+ has been doing a large amount of production cuts and a subsequent rally has persisted in the market. Even when Crude Oil inventories rise in the US, this has little effect on the price of oil. But more often we see a fall inventories and price rises in reaction to this. Our view...

YaroslavBirchenko

GBPUSD We finally have some clarification for one of the biggest market risks – Brexit. The no-deal Brexit has been blocked in the British Parliament. This sent the pound higher and provided stable footing for traders to speculate from. Additionally, Prime Minister Theresa May has reached out to the Labour party’s Jeremy Corbyn for support. They used to be enemies...

YaroslavBirchenko

Bitcoin Cryptocurrency is back on our radar. There was a sharp increase across the board for major cryptocurrencies especially the heavyweight Bitcoin. On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Bitcoin traded more than 10k contracts in one day. The volume is about 20 times the average for 2019. There is definitely a big fish in this market and he is set on buying. This...

YaroslavBirchenko

US Dollar We are entering a period of time in the financial markets where it is difficult to sustain trends. All over the world, monetary policy from the central banks has been mostly negative. Guidance from the Swiss National Bank, the Federal Reserve and from the European Central Bank has been that the economic slowdown in their respective countries and all...

YaroslavBirchenko

Pound Sterling The British government and the Pound along with them seem to be totally confused on what action to take. The Pound has been in a flat and the British parliament has also been undecided on what direction they plan to take things. It has been a long and unproductive 2.5-year ordeal after the initial Brexit vote. The outcome is worrisome, Prime...

YaroslavBirchenko

New Zealand Dollar The New Zealand Dollar fell sharply after the rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. There were no changes to monetary policy but they did make clear that the next move would be a rate cut. Market participants jumped on this open and clear language to capitalize and price in what would most likely happen in the near future....

YaroslavBirchenko

Pound weakness needs to be capitalized on. The political uncertainty around Brexit is at an all time high and the pound is showing weakness despite strong employment and CPI data sets. Technically the currency pair is exhibiting strong bearish signals. On the daily timeframe price has dropped below the 50EMA and 200EMA signaling a high probability of a...

YaroslavBirchenko

Crude oil inventories have the sharpest decline in 8 months. With a forecast of 0.309M barrels of Crude Oil Inventories the actual figure was -9.589. On top of the dollar weakness this has caused WTI oil futures to jump above 60$. Oil is trading above the 200EMA which will act as a strong level of support. Fundamental news that are affecting the price of oil is...

YaroslavBirchenko

Safe haven assets are on the rise. In the time to come we believe that safe have assets will continue their climb. US president Donald Trump recently stated that tariffs on China will stay until they comply with the “deal”. The “deal” is very difficult to comply with as it includes buying additional US goods and enforcing international copyright laws. This whole...

YaroslavBirchenko

The Federal Reserve has announced that they will not be raising interest rates and that they do not plan to in the foreseeable future. Chair Powell kept repeating that the economy is in good shape. The dovish surprise was great; besides the downgrade of growth, inflation, and interest rates we now know that the quantitative tightening (QT) program will be...

YaroslavBirchenko

USD At the start of the year, markets priced in two interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Then that number dropped down to one after dovish remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell which led investors to lower their expectations. Now with another surprise we have an even more dovish stance that was not necessarily priced in by investors. The dollar drops like...

YaroslavBirchenko

Hello Traders! Technical Analysis The USDJPY has been enjoying a smooth upward growth for the dollar. Recently the rhetoric from the Federal Reserve has been very dovish. Combined with the economic slowdown and falling wage growth in the US the pressure is building on the US dollar. Technically the rate of growth of the currency pair has increased before...

YaroslavBirchenko

Technical The head and shoulders formation on the AUDUSD currency pair might soon break support. We have been tracking the Australian dollar for a few weeks now and the currency looks like it is finally ready to drop lower. Currently the AUDUSD is bouncing off neckline support which is keeping from the trade being triggered. As soon as we have a close below...

YaroslavBirchenko

Technical The EUR/USD broke its rising wedge formation at the start of February. So far, the trading conditions have been subtle. There is plenty of room for price to drop to the support level above 1.1200. Currently it is too late to be in a short position for a swing trade but short term bias favors the bears. A break below the super strong level of support at...

YaroslavBirchenko

Price broke through the 200 day EMA and is moving towards the higher part of the wedge pattern we see forming. The way price is forming around the corner of the triangle reminds a bit of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. For a bullish trade one should wait for a breakout of this pattern. In this case, the bullish movement would need to be strong and an entry...