asferruzzi

asferruzzi

Trends don't last forever. GBP is showing signs of sellers losing commitment. See chart. A new uptrend has just taken place and broken the trend line, this may catch out all the traders who entered short over the past few weeks. Price is extended far beyond it's longer term average, the 200 moving average, providing more support that price should return...

asferruzzi

Just thought I would post an observation about the performance of Bitcoin. For the technical analysts among us, this is proof that Dow Theory doesn't just apply to stocks. Charles Dow published some observations over a hundred years ago that linked human behaviour and financial markets. The recent surge and subsequent fall in Bitcoins value clearly shows the...

asferruzzi Updated 

Pennant pattern has formed on this potential pullback. The weekly time frame shows nice steady downtrend with expanding volume indicating the higher time frame has commitment of sellers to continue the downtrend. Volume on the daily timeframe has contracted in line with a pullback forming the pennant pattern. Volume has began to expand at the end of the...

asferruzzi Updated 

Nice developed down trend with a pullback wedge pattern forming. Volume is also contracting on the pullback indicating buying in the pullback is weakening. Enter if price breaks below the wedge pattern. Target is the same distance from the previous pullback, unless a pivot point price action appears.

asferruzzi

RSI made new lows whilst price continues to make new highs. This indicates buying momentum is easing. Price is above the 20 moving average, indicating price may be pausing for a further push to the upside or reverse for a new downtrend. If RSI breaks below the 50 line then momentum will be weighted towards a bearish move. Keep on eye on this pair.

asferruzzi

Pros: Both countries forecast fundamentals are evenly matched therefore I'm not considering this to be a factor. The Euro is appreciating across most other currencies whilst the Canadian dollar is mixed, therefore there is slight weight towards this pair to continue the uptrend. From a technical perspective we have a bunch of positives. Price has pulled back...

asferruzzi

As mentioned on previous posts, New Zealand inflation is forecast to almost double over the next 12 months putting downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar. Most of the other major New Zealand currency pairs are weak, adding probability towards a downward move on this pair. RSI has made a bearish divergence recently, indicating that the New Zealand dollar is...

asferruzzi

New Zealand inflation is forecast to almost double over the next 12 months which puts downward pressure on New Zealand exchange rates. At the moment majority of major New Zealand currencies pairs are weak, proving support for an appreciation of this pair. RSI bullish divergence has also formed on this pair, indicating that sellers are losing momentum. This...

asferruzzi Updated 

Fundaments of UK are looking good, with forecast inflation and interest rates both expected to rise over the next 12 months. These factors do influence a currency. New Zealand fundamentals are forecast to remain fairly stagnate over the next 12 months. Obviously this could change. Fundamentals will apply a upward pressure on this pair. RSI has also formed a...

asferruzzi

Recent inflation forecasts suggest Euro inflation is decreasing whilst Australia is increasing, this would suggest upward pressure on this pair. RSI has made a recent bullish divergence signal, indicating selling of the Euro is weakening. RIS has made a new technical uptrend whilst the price has made a technical downtrend, making this signal strong. This event...

asferruzzi

I have been watching the CAD pairs recently because of recent news about the balance of trade deficit making a record high. This is bad news for the CAD, looking at the balance of trade historically, it is trending into more deficit. The reason this is bad news is because it means Canada needs to sell more CAD dollars and buy mostly US and Euros to cover the...

asferruzzi

RSI has made a bearish divergence on this pair indicating momentum of the recent uptrend is weakening. RSI has made a new technical downtrend. Recent inflation forecast show Mexico's inflation to almost halve over the next 12 months which is generally good for the currency. Also, the interest rate differentials are massively in favour of the Peso. The US is...

asferruzzi

RSI is showing a bullish divergence and has made a technical uptrend. The RSI divergence is telling us the US dollar is weakening on this pair and the Kiwi is strengthening. Could this be institutions rebalancing their portfolios in anticipation of a new Kiwi uptrend? I would wait for a pullback to a fib level in order to get a good price then enter long. Exit...

asferruzzi

RSI bearish divergence has presented on the 12 hour time frame. RSI has made a technical downtrend whilst price has continued to make a technical uptrend, making the divergence signal strong. Most other Swiss currencies are appreciating which provides bearish support for a new downtrend on this pair. Some depreciating pressure is also on other CAD pairs,...

asferruzzi

RSI showing bullish divergence at a major support zone. Most other AUD currencies are beginning to appreciate. Most other USD currencies are losing upward momentum, including the dollar index. Momentum is behind an appreciation of this pair. I am bullish. Wait for pullback to enter long. Exit when AUD appears to losing upward momentum. Potential risk/reward...

asferruzzi Updated 

RSI bullish divergence has occurred on this daily chart, and a new RSI uptrend confirmed. Divergence is in an indication that supply/demand is shifting. Lira is potentially shifting from distribution to accumulation. Other Lira's currencies are also appreciating and other Yen currencies depreciating. Target placed at next major level of support. Stop placed...

asferruzzi

Price action shows the buyers are loosing commitment to push price above the indicated resistance level for the past few weeks. The RSI is also showing divergence to the downside which means the previous buying momentum that was driving the uptrend is weakening, indicating in advance that a reversal may be looming. The other factor weighing in that will...

asferruzzi Updated 

Daily time frame shows price within previous support zone. Hourly time frame shows price rejected support twice and potentially third. RSI indicator showing momentum to the upside. Based on the double bottom pattern, support area and RSI I am biased to the upside.