Hawkish this week in data and next "speaks" from the FED. Could even be a mini shocker re rates, (not to me but compared to what's baked into the markets now, markets are still believing .25 increase.). I fully expect a .5 increase in March, and fed speak to prep us for it (more pain) next few days. These impulse waves are real and to be respected. No October...
Oil to 70, complex HS to complete. Markets will follow. Markets are begging for something for the bulls to buy buy buy. But hope is fading. Oil demand down despite china open. Inflation strong, rates up more, and still not enough. FED's demand shock incoming., be careful what you ask for you might just get it.
HAL has a date with its 200 MA. and then, what does oil do. Selling SPR doesn't help supply much, when demand shock is about to hit hard.
Oil heading lower, 60 could be in the cards. Unusual spike in consumer spending on travel weakens, Summer driving demand slows. Bidens releasing more SPR doesn't help, prices heads lower, but doesn't encourage spending what ya don't got, and any excess cash goes toward food inflation which is unofficially skyrocketing, in case you haven't been to the grocery...
FCX topped the right shoulder of the HS, and its down from here folks.
see chart. DXY moves in similar historic patterns. I see this one as a repeat coming next week. February is also historically a dxy fav for a long move.
See chart. SPX oppo correlated. Long term TL support strength shows itself. Don't have a catalyst to share.
Late Feb The markets and DXY were synced. But as DXY bounced, the markets didn't like it, and danced alone to its lows. So the dollar strength, what do we say about it. Was it the chicken or the egg? Did sellers of stocks run to the dollar for safe haven, when they realized it was more than a pullback? Or was there international currency forces at work to...
NVDA similar abc correction to last time. And last time segment ab was less than bc. Way way too much happening bad, would take something unimaginably good to take this market higher. DXY action is at issue. Same type of down action before the markets. DXY has been oppo markets, and it turned down last time, a few days later the markets followed when it...
NVDA, ABC correction wave forming just as in March previously, Money flow, and many other indicators, are saying overbought, needs to drop, again. C would be right at 200 MA, .618 Fib retrace, etc. AKA lots of support there.
I posted this chart a few years ago. Those that follow know this. I have updated it, but it still has the same outcome. S&P at 555. How we get there, and why, don't know, don't care. Well I care, of course, because I don't want it to happen, but who cares what I think. I say I don't care because if one thing doesn't bring us there, something else will do the...
So take a bite out of the Apple, or not, mmmmm? Not spiritual? If we remove that talk, Apple stock at tremendous support, reversal zone, right at the strongest Fib retrace also. Lots of potential for good news dripping back for the market to eat of, maybe feast on, for a "V: recovery, short term next week. Earnings may be positive for those who report, right at...
On the weekly, big picture, all indicators are at levels the last time we had a long range, with similar pin action, and a break out of that range bound time frame to the Bull side of things. from the bottom of the range to the top of the next range, green arrow, we rose 37.47 percent. If we project that this time, with this break out, we are looking at a top of...
What does that say, if it is real? And I am just watching this for now. Its usually a leader.
So how many times does a breakout need to fail to define a range? Enough to get the job done is the answer. I would say fifth time is the charm for the upper boundary, and so we head back down the the lower, and lower yet, if history repeats.
The red line is the lower trend of the year long consolidation triangle. No wonder the direction has stalled right at this moment. If we go lower, we go very much lower, if we bounce, it catches a market loading up with shorts (like chicken little - and the democratic media - running all over town saying the sky is falling, the sky is falling) on a huuuuuuuge...
Does history repeat? Smaller triangle than the first, but all the same pin action. Reaching the exit of the triangle or a bounce higher, the mixed action on these lines indicate its waiting for steering currents, just like Dorian did. IMO, we exit downward, and markets will follow in this currency war, trade war, and rumors or wars driven times.